The Value of Information in Decision‐Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.     

Estimation of the parameter of a dynamically selected population for two subclasses of the exponential family

We introduce the problem of estimation of the parameters of a dynamically selected population in an infinite sequence of random variables and provide its application in the statistical inference based on record values from a non stationary scheme. We develop unbiased estimation of the parameters of the dynamically selected population and evaluate the risk of the estimators. We provide comparisons with natural estimators and obtain asymptotic results. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the results using real data.     

Cumulative correspondence analysis using orthogonal polynomials

Taguchi's statistic has long been known to be a more appropriate measure of association of the dependence for ordinal variables compared to the Pearson chi-squared statistic. Therefore, there is some advantage in using Taguchi's statistic in the correspondence analysis context when a two-way contingency table consists at least of an ordinal categorical variable. The aim of this paper, considering the contingency table with two ordinal categorical variables, is to show a decomposition of Taguchi's index into linear, quadratic and higher-order components. This decomposition has been developed using Emerson's orthogonal polynomials. Moreover, two case studies to explain the methodology have been analyzed.     

“密切联系群众”的本质与价值——从马克思主义经典作家的视角看

密切联系群众是工人阶级政党执政的优势。马克思主义经典作家善于密切联系群众的思想是我们深入研究和实践群众观点、群众路线的重要出发点。马克思、恩格斯、列宁等关于党的政策与群众需求相一致、党的组织与群众组织相协调、党的理论引导与群众的自觉意识相和谐、党的实践与群众监督相结合的思想内涵,对我们开展群众路线教育实践活动,加强党风廉政建设,进而提高党的凝聚力、战斗力、领导力具有重要启示。     

论坚持“以德为先”选用干部

我们党选用干部标准的思想经历了从毛泽东提出的＂德才兼备＂到胡锦涛明确提出的＂德才兼备、以德为先＂的历史的、理论的发展演变过程。从宏观上和战略上看,坚持＂以德为先＂选用干部,在理论层面和现实需求层面上都具有重大的价值意义。要使＂以德为先＂用人标准不致于流于形式,就必须健全完善与时俱进的党员干部＂德＂之衡量标准。     

怨恨论——从尼采到舍勒

尼采提出＂基督教的爱理念＂为最精巧的＂怨恨之花＂的断言,舍勒承接并驳斥该断言,提出现代仁爱才是真正的奴隶道德的起义。分析并比较两位哲人的怨恨论,他们对怨恨情感造成价值位移这一看法是一致的,该问题上的分歧在于对怨恨所颠覆的对象作出不同判断,这一分歧源于他们各自对于生命及生命价值的不同理解。     

从楚山禅师坐化看佛教死亡超越理论的当代价值

楚山绍琦禅师是明代四川著名高僧,临济宗传人。他的教化与行持紧扣禅宗"直指心性"的宗旨,以"识心为本"的心性禅著称。他坐化圆寂,肉身不坏流存后世。其所言所行以及离世方式展示了佛教的死亡超越理论,对佛教自身社会形象的定位和提升有深刻启示,并对当代临终关怀、安乐死等诸多生命伦理难题的应对具有启发价值。     

Changepoint Estimation in a Segmented Linear Regression via Empirical Likelihood

For a segmented regression system with an unknown changepoint over two domains of a predictor, a new empirical likelihood ratio statistic is proposed to test the null hypothesis of no change. Under the null hypothesis of no change, the proposed test statistic is shown empirically to be Gumbel distributed with robust location and scale estimators against various parameter settings and error distributions. A power analysis is conducted to illustrate the performance of the test. Under the alternative hypothesis with a changepoint, the test statistic is utilized to estimate the changepoint between the two domains. A comparison of the frequency distributions between the proposed estimator and two parametric methods indicates that the proposed method is effective in capturing the true changepoint.     

大学教学价值取向:历史与现实

从影响当前大学教学方方面面的价值取向看,大学教学要坚守古代的"理智培育"价值取向,这是大学教学永葆魅力的根源所在.同时,大学教学要张扬现代的"技术获取"价值取向,这是作为生活世界现象的大学教学的重要使命之一.第三,大学教学要倡导后现代的"欲望释放"价值取向,这是大学教学充满生机与活力的保证.因此,大学教学价值取向并非还原为欲、技、道中的某一维,而是这三者的有机统一.     

知识社会价值的二重性表现

知识的社会价值具有二重性表现。从生产方式、经济发展和精神文明三个维度阐述了知识社会价值的三个正面性表现，同时从人体自身认识、人类生物性功能、人类文化、人类存在方式与安全性等方面对知识社会价值的负面性表现作了探索，认为，在知识发展过程中，知识社会价值的正面性和负面性在人的交往实践活动中构成一个辩证运动。