Out-of-Home Placement of Children and Economic Factors: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate the effects of income, maternal employment, family structure, and public policies on several measures of childrens living arrangements. We use both linear probability models and discrete-time event history models to explore the effects of these factors on: (1) the probability that a child is living out-of-home in a given year; (2) the probability that a child is removed from home in a given year, conditional on the child living at home in the previous year; (3) the probability that a child is removed from home for the first time; (4) the probability that a child is reunified with his/her biological parent(s) given that the child was living out-of-home in the previous year. We also analyze whether these estimates differ by types of out-of-home placements. Our results suggest that children from lower-income, single-mother, and mother–partner families are considerably more likely both to be living out-of-home and to be removed from home. A change in family structure also tends to place a child at higher risk of an out-of-home living arrangement, unless this transition functions to bring a childs father back into the household. Maternal work appears to increase the probability that a child lives at home. Additionally, once a removal has taken place, we do not find a relationship between income and the probability of a family reunification, but we do find that single-mother and mother–partner families are less likely to reunify. Finally, our analyses provide some evidence that welfare benefit levels are negatively related to out-of-home placements.Funding for this project was provided the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development through grant number 5 F32 HD044 302-02. We are grateful to Shoshana Grossbard-Shechtman, Jennifer Hill, Sanders Korenman, Leonard Lopoo, Katherine Magnuson, and Christina Paxson for their excellent comments and advice.JEL Classification: D10, I30, J13     

Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.     

“唯女子与小人为,难养也“——孔子的女性观辨证

从<论语>文献学来考察,孔子对女性是正面肯定和赞颂的,而非歧视;"唯女子与小人为,难养也"是为女子呜不平,并非秦汉以来,尤其是宋明理学家们出于某种政治目的或个人需要的故意曲解.为此,应从<论语>内证和有关文献及文字训解、社会思潮和传统文化等多视角加以辨证,以还孔子女性观的本来面目.     

论纳尔苏行动对曹家的作用及影响

雍正十年十一月至雍正十一年四月 ,早被革爵圈禁的纳尔苏 ,派嫡幼子福静向隋赫德索银三千八百两。事前有“曹家人”到平郡王府“行走” ,事后有雍正帝及宝亲王弘历为之开脱。曹家得银后可摆脱困境 ,捐纳州同。因此 ,对曹兆页家的穷困问题 ,有必要作通盘的思考 ;对“曹雪芹从乾隆九年开始创作《石头记》”的定论 ,大可怀疑。应大破“自传说” ,大立“他传说”。     

明清时期汉口商业文化探略

影响汉口商业文化最本质的原因是地理位置。汉口处两江交汇之地又兼为九州之腹心,九省之通衢,其地利条件是商业和商业文化发达的客观基础。汉口城市的繁荣还离不开历史机遇和主观动力,这尤其表现在汉口开埠使西方商业文化渗入,传统的商业格局开始解体,从而为武汉城市的近代化提供了历史的机遇;而张之洞对武汉的打造则为近代汉口城市和商业的发展和转型提供了主观的动力。由于汉口城市的商业特性和移民特性,本土文化、异地文化和西洋文化熔铸于一炉,汉口商业文化呈现出五方杂处,华洋纷呈的特色。这种“大杂处”,形成了汉口对异质文化开放和包容的城市性格,使汉口城市在近代化的转型中较少有传统的羁绊,易于接受新事物,并能随新而变,与时俱进,最终脱颖而出,成为“东洋之芝加哥”。     

回顾中国现代历史上“妇女回家”的四次争论

文章分析了中国现代历史上“妇女回家”四次争论所产生的历史背景、导火线以及造成的社会影响。着重指出 ,在民族危难之际 ,妇女解放首先要求得民族解放 ,才有自身的解放 ,“妇女回家”则剥夺了妇女爱国救国的权利与义务 ,没有妇女的参与 ,就没有革命的成功 ;改革开放后 ,社会上出现的劳动力过剩以及就业压力问题 ,不是妇女就业造成的 ,也决不是“妇女回家”能够解决的 ,必须依赖社会的进步和发展     

推进理论创新促进社会发展

理论创新是社会发展和变革的先导,只有不断推进理论创新,才能促进社会的不断发展进步,推进理论创新,必须贯彻“三个代表”要求,重视总结实践经验,努力提高创新能力。     

“大跃进”时期的河南农村公共食堂

农村公共食堂是“大跃进”时期人民公社化的产物。公共食堂严重脱离20世纪50年代末中国社会生产力水平,因而不是经济发展的结果,而是靠政治压力强迫农民建立起来的。河南省是全国人民公社化运动的发源地,农村公共食堂的数量和比例均居全国首位。河南农村公共食堂出现了种种问题,它的解散是必然的,但却经历了一个曲折的过程,付出了血的代价。农村公共食堂问题上血的历史教训,是值得深思和记取的。     

黄庭坚在太和任上的诗歌创作

该文以黄庭坚在宋神宗元丰三年到元丰六年(1080-1083)知江西吉州太和县事所写的诗歌,探求黄庭坚在 初为地方官时的爱民情怀,及其在任上创作的诗歌的现实主义风格和他作诗“以故为新”,“点铁成金”的艺术特点。     

“自由”、“平等”的呼唤——“五四”时代女作家创作论

妇女解放是"五四 "时期民主知识分子备加关注的一个问题.伴随着"人"的意识的觉醒,追求人格独立、个性自由、婚恋自主已成为"五四"时代广大知识女性的自觉要求,"五四"时代女作家本身就是这样一些知识女性.文章从分析她们的作品入手,论述了女性自身对"自由"平等"的不懈探寻.