The value of being precise

This study investigates how individuals assess imprecise information. We focus on two essential dimensions of decision under uncertainty, outcomes and probabilities, and their respective precision. We believe the precision of information is highly relevant in the investment setting, as reflected in the well-known “home (familiarity) bias”, and the outcome and probability dimensions, separately or jointly, may affect investors’ knowledge of uncertainty and perceived risk of the investment options, and subsequently affect investors’ choices. To test this conjecture, we conducted three experiments. Our results show that 1) participants demonstrate a pattern of preference for precision and aversion of extreme vagueness and associate vagueness with higher perceived risk and lower investment (experiments one and two); 2) participants prefer vague outcome information to vague probability information (experiment two); 3) familiarity indeed positively affects the precision of estimated values, but this association is stronger for the outcome dimension than for probabilities (experiment three). Our results confirm that precision in information, especially in the outcome dimension has an impact on investors’ resource allocation choices.     

陕西省自然、经济、社会条件及固定资产投资计划的调查分析

本文对陕西省自然、经济、社会条件及固定资产投资计划进行了分析 ,指出了陕西省的自然、经济、社会条件的优势及固定资产投资计划的特点。这对于陕西省政府有效实施其固定资产投资计划和实现其社会经济发展目标具有重要意义     

我国国民教育投资现状与对策研究

本文阐述了我国教育投资的现状及存在的问题,分析了我国教育投资不足的原因及制定教育投资政策的理论依据,并进一步提出建设适合我国国情的教育投资制度的思路和对策。     

中国FDI进入模式的影响因素

本文综合交易费用理论和谈判力量理论分析框架,探讨了FDI进入中国市场模式(合资／独资)的影响因素。应用两分Logit模型进行实证分析,结果显示区位因素、来源地因素、投资项目的经营期限以及投资规模都对FDI进入中国市场模式产生了重要的影响,而产业因素的影响则统计不显著。     

Investment communities: Behavioral attitudes and economic dynamics

Using a real-world data set encompassing the daily portfolio holdings and exposures of complex investment funds, we derive a set of quantitative attributes to capture essential behavioral features of fund managers. We find the existence and stability of three investment attitudes, namely the conservative, the reactive, and the pro-active profiles, defining communities that respond differently when facing external shocks. The conservative community has behavioral similarities that tend to decrease due to external shocks, the reactive community members greatly increase their activity level especially during turmoil phases, while delegated investors in the pro-active community are more resilient to turbulence and counterbalance the impact of the events by adjusting their portfolio exposures in advance. We show that exogenous shocks only temporarily perturb the behavioral traits of the communities which then go back to their original states once the distress is embedded.     

Tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment

This paper considers the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment. The price of risky investment is modeled by a geometric Lévy process, while claims are modeled by a one-sided linear process whose innovations further obeying a so-called upper tail asymptotic independence. When the innovations are heavy tailed, we derive some uniform asymptotic formulas. The results show that the linear dependence has significant impact on the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims but the upper tail asymptotic independence is negligible.     

中国及TTIP国家贸易便利化水平测评

准确测度中国与TTIP主要成员国之间的贸易便利化差异,便于深刻把握TIP催生的国际贸易便利化新趋势,应对全球贸易规则变迁的挑战.文章首先构建了贸易便利化测评指标体系,采用《全球竞争力报告》《腐败指数》以及《世界竞争力年鉴》的相关数据,对2008-2014年TTIP主要成员国及中国的贸易便利化水平进行了对比测评.研究发现,虽然中国的贸易便利化水平整体上升了,但与TTIP发达成员国的差距依然较大,在口岸效率、海关环境、规制环境和电子商务方面均低于其平均水平.为此,中国应进一步简化海关程序和手续,改善海关环境,提升政策制定的透明度,加大对电子商务中的新信息技术的应用力度,防范TTIP区域内贸易转移效应对我国的影响.     

要素匹配与中国投资效率空间差异性——基于双层嵌套型函数的分解研究

本文基于四要素双层嵌套的生产函数,利用1990-2016年全国层面及省际层面数据测算投资效率,并分析其空间结构特征及演变轨迹,检验投资效率匹配效应影响因素。研究发现：①1990-2016年我国整体投资效率呈下降趋势,资本-技能劳动匹配效应与整体投资效率走势趋同,快速累积的资本存量和不断升级的资本质量与短缺的技能劳动之间矛盾突出。②东中西部地区投资效率增长非一致性明显。东部地区资本相对投资效率明显高于中西部,但下降幅度大于中西部,中西部与东部地区之间差距缩小,其中匹配效应是区域间投资效率非平衡的主要成因。③若产业结构升级的技能劳动需求不能满足,将引发要素错配,不利于有效投资。房价与工资提升分别通过影响技能劳动供给和需求抑制要素匹配效率;教育和公路设施会对地区要素匹配产生积极影响,改善地区间投资效率非均衡性;地区投资效率存在显著正向空间相关性,毗邻地区的要素流动和经济发展相近地区的技术溢出均对投资效率产生积极的影响。     

Reconsidering the philanthropic foundation minimum payout policy under a “new normal”

With the increasing salience of foundations in many policy fields, and recent changes in market conditions, policies towards foundations designed decades ago seem outdated. In this article we suggest reassessing foundation payout minimums. To examine the impact of payout rates on grantmaking foundations lifespan and performance under “new normal” economics, we simulate multiple foundations lifecycles using Monte Carlo methods in diverse capital market conditions, with varied investment and payout strategies.We find that while under past market regime perpetuity seems to be a given, under more probable future scenarios, foundations might face increasingly early mortality and endowment depletion, limiting their potential impact. Furthermore, lower payout rates allow for higher lifetime grantmaking, higher mean annual grantmaking, and lower giving volatility. Accordingly, we suggest a tiered payout policy, in line with foundations’ missions and proper financial planning.