Violations of dominance in pricing judgments

The dominance principle states that the judged price of gamble A should be equal to or greater than the judged price of gamble B whenever A's outcomes are equal to or better than the corresponding outcomes of B, holding everything else constant. Subjects often violate the dominance principle by assigning a higher price to a gamble with some probability of winning a positive amount, Y, otherwise zero, than to a superior gamble with the same chances of winning Y, otherwise winning X. Violations also occur with losses. Results are consistent with a configural-weight theory in which the decision weight for each outcome depends on the rank of the outcome with respect to the other outcomes in the lottery and the value of the outcome (zero vs. nonzero).The authors thank Shi-jie Chang, Duncan Luce, and Lisa Ordóñez for comments on an earlier draft. This research was supported by a National Science Foundation grant to the first author (BNS-8451368). Requests for reprints should be sent to Barbara Mellers, Dept. of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.     

Non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics

Non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) type offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and for flexible modelling of dependence structures. This paper develops this potential, drawing on and extending powerful results from probability theory for applications in statistical analysis. Their power is illustrated by a sustained application of OU processes within the context of finance and econometrics. We construct continuous time stochastic volatility models for financial assets where the volatility processes are superpositions of positive OU processes, and we study these models in relation to financial data and theory.     

Option pricing for generalized distributions

The Black Scholes formula has been widely used to price financial instruments. The derivation of this formula is based on the assumption of lognormally distributed returns which is often in poor agreement with actual data. An option pricing formula based on the generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) is presented. This formula includes the Black Scholes formula as a special case and accommodates a wide variety of nonlognormally distributed returns. The sensitivity of option values to departures from the skewness and kurtosis associated with the lognormal distribution is investigated.     

中国农村民间借贷市场融资约束环境下利率定价模型分析——以广东农村实地调查数据为例

通过对广东农户民间借贷行为实地调查的问卷进行数据分析,了解农村民间借贷中的资金供求关系,发现存在的融资约束问题,进而对融资约束环境下民间借贷资金利率定价过程进行实证分析;着重考察农村民间借贷利率受公共信息和私人信息影响的程度,从借款人和贷款人的角度分别建立定价模型进行经验分析。结果显示,定价模型在F检验1%水平上显著,其他模型具有R2的统计显著性;反映借款用途的变量在10%水平上显著,其他变量均在5%水平上显著。这说明该市场利率能够反映公共信息的影响,借款人和贷款人的利率定价也反映了各自私人信息中相关风险和财务能力因素的影响,得到的经验结论主要是:第一,农村民间借贷市场是自主交易的金融市场;第二,其利率定价过程基本市场化。     

小微企业网贷风险定价模型研究

对小微企业网贷平台的运营模式进行深入分析,发现其运行机制包括需求的同质化解构、需求的模块化生产、需求的风险评估、个性化需求加总,在此基础上构建小微企业网贷风险定价模型。为验证模型的有效性,抽取国内典型互联网金融平台“人人贷”上近期发生的小微企业标的并进行风险定价,将定价结果与实际利率进行比较,发现该模型适用于“卖方市场”的小微企业网贷,能够提供差异化的贷款利率,从而向小微企业提供个性化的网贷产品。     

天然气工业用户峰谷分时定价多目标优化模型

制定合理的天然气分时定价政策,能够优化资源配置,保证城市天然气管网稳定运行,从而缓解城市“气荒”现象,促进燃气产业健康发展。为此,在考虑用户响应行为的基础上,以最小化最大峰负荷和峰谷负荷差为目标,以燃气公司利益、用户利益,以及政府对天然气价格的限制为约束条件,建立了峰谷分时定价的多目标优化模型,运用遗传算法与Pareto排序相结合的方法对其进行求解。并且,将该模型应用于一个案例,将一天24小时划分为峰、平、谷三个时段,按照“量大价高”的原则实施分时定价政策。结果表明:在保证用户和燃气公司同时获益的情况下,存在最优的峰、平、谷价格,使得最大峰负荷和峰谷负荷差能有效降低,验证了多目标优化模型的有效性和可行性。     

Transfer Pricing in Transition Economies: Evidence from Ukraine

Faced with possibilities and challenges of doing business under different regulatory regimes, transnational corporations have developed a number of transfer mechanisms to take advantage of profit maximization opportunities. Transfer pricing is a transfer mechanism widely used by transnational corporations. Implications of transfer pricing for profitability and the need for transfer pricing regulation are well understood by national governments, which is reflected in the fact that more than 60 governments have introduced some form of transfer pricing controls. Transfer pricing is a challenging issue for transition economies as their transfer pricing regulatory systems are less mature than those of developed countries. The authors have initiated an empirical study on transfer pricing strategies in the Ukrainian market. In addition, the national regulatory regime for transfer pricing was evaluated compared to international best practices. This article is an attempt to draw attention of the research community and Ukrainian policy-makers to transfer pricing issues in Ukraine.      

城市生活垃圾计量收费模式探讨

为了实现城市生活垃圾从源头上减量化和垃圾处理产业化的目标,北京市即将逐步推行城市生活垃圾计量收费制。本文针对北京市生活垃圾及其收费的现状与问题,探讨了计量收费模式的合理性和可行性,设计了计量收费模式的定价标准方案,并提出了相关建议。     

自然资源经济学的难解之题——水资源价格与节约的冲突

日益短缺的水资源面临的价格与节约的冲突,成为自然资源经济学的一个难解之题：水资源严重短缺的趋势,需要通过价格调整其分配与消费,而作为公用事业产品的生活用水,价格的长期粘性不利于水资源节约。提出这个问题,意在提示人们共同探讨破解这一难题的方法。     

应用混合神经网络和遗传算法的期权价格预测模型

隐含波动率是指在市场中观察的期权价格所蕴涵的波动率.提出了一种加权的隐含波动率作为混合神经网络的输入变量,建立了混合神经网络和遗传算法相结合的期权价格预测模型,通过遗传算法来优化神经网络的结构和获得隐含波动率的权重.在对香港金融衍生品市场的实证中表明,本文模型在预测结果上要优于传统的Black-Scholes模型.