历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

中国早期共产主义者对党建思想的探索

早期共产主义者学习和利用马列主义政党学说的基本原理来解决在中国建立政党的过程中遇到的具体问题,提出为什么要建立政党、如何建立和建设政党等党建根本问题。     

"两个环节,一个主体"是做好大学生思想工作的基础

从国际国内和大学生的自身情况看,必须进行"两个环节,一个主体"的教育。两个环节,是指心理素质和道德素质的教育。心理素质是一种内在因素,是人的精神动力;道德素质是伦理价值的外在表现,是人的行为规范坐标;一个主体,是指对大学生坚定不移地进行邓小平理论和"三个代表"重要思想的教育,这是教育的灵魂和方向。     

中共三代领导集体国防教育思想的历史探索

研究表明，中国共产党的三代领导集体对国防教育都很重 视，特别是在和平建设年代，中共领导人能随着国际国内形势的变化而适时调整其国防教育 思想的主要内容，从而使党的国防教育思想更趋成熟，向科学化、系统化、制度化迈进。     

浅谈我国古代文艺作品中的影射技法

影射 ,作为一种文学技巧 ,最先出现在《诗经》 ,日后由于意识形态变化的原因 ,并在儒家文学观的指引下 ,逐渐推广到辞赋、散文、小说、词曲和戏剧所有文学领域 ,表现形式也由单一的比喻象征发展到多种类型 ,形成姿态横生、形式大备、羽翼丰满的艺术手段     

马克思的社会形态理论辨正

马克思的社会形态理论是五形态理论 ,该理论在马克思那里有充分的文本根据 ,马克思始终坚持了该理论。理解五形态理论的视角至关重要 ,须从“世界历史”的视角去理解它。马克思的五形态理论不是社会发展的单线论 ,而是既坚持社会发展规律的普遍性 ,又承认单个国家发展道路特殊性的辨证决定论。马克思不仅精辟地分析了在“世界历史”的大环境下个别国家超越式发展的深层原因 ,而且还提出了社会发展的三种基本的模式     

坚持尊重社会发展规律与尊重人民历史主体地位的一致性——关于党的根本宗旨的哲学思考

把握党的根本宗旨 ,只有从历史规律实现的特殊性上理解人民的历史主体性与从人民的历史主体性上把握历史发展的规律的统一中 ,从马克思主义真理观是与价值观的统一中 ,才能深刻理解“党要始终代表中国最广大人民的根本利益”的真理性 ;实践党的根本宗旨 ,必须在坚持尊重社会发展规律与尊重人民历史主体地位的一致性的基础上 ,坚持为崇高理想奋斗与为最广大人民谋利益的一致性 ,坚持完成党的各项工作与实现人民利益的一致性 ,坚持一切为了人民群众与一切依靠人民群众的一致性。