文学经典的批评与文学批评的经典化——以建国后十七年文学经典的批评为中心

建国后十七年，文学批评的主流意识形态话语通过掌握文学经典的解释权而取得主导地位，其具体方式是颠覆原有经典、重新确认经典、文学经典重释、原有经典强化以及确立新时代经典，筒言之，通过共时态的文学经典建构与历时性的经典评价从而实现文学批评的经典化。由于文学经典的形成受他律性因素的支配，文学批评的经典化与非经典化范围总是处于流变之中，其流变的复杂过程呈现了建国前后文学批评观念的转型态势，也预示着建国后主流批评话语的建构方向。     

创伤与治疗——对读苏联作品看中国十七年战争文学

中国十七年时期，刘真、路翎、王愿坚、赵寻等人独辟蹊径，勇敢地创作了一批反思战争创伤的作品。他们惋惜战争中逝去的生命，揭示战争对美好人生的戕害，并提出修复、治疗战争创伤的良好愿望。但是借助于苏联同时期相关作品的对读，尚可发现这些作品仍有其未能或不敢触及的“伤疤”。     

Occupancy numbers for dynamic heterogeneous populations: Estimate of particles lifetimes

A dynamic model of a heterogeneous population is studied. Particles belonging to a population are divided, at every time t, into a finite number of classes according to their types and the partition changes over time. The role of the occupancy numbers, namely the cardinality of each class, is highlighted. The relationship between the stochastic process of occupancy numbers and the process of particle types is analyzed. The main goal of this paper is the estimation of the lifetime of each particle at a given time t, when the observed data are the history of the process of the number of dead particles up to t. Furthermore, a discrete time approximation of the filter is given.     

帝国之梦的幻灭历程——评析英国战后初期的外交政策

第二次世界大城改变了世界的格局,传统的以欧洲为中心的国际关系格局己被美苏两极格局所取代。战争所引起的新势态要求英国的外交政策做出适当的调整。但由于外交政策的连续性,英国政府在战后初期仍竭力维持自己"大英帝国"的地位,这就使得其在处理国际事务时常常感到力不从心。从"三环外交"方针、英国对欧政策和苏伊士危机这三个方面对英国战后初期的外交政策进行评析进而阐述英国帝国之梦的幻灭历程。     

Goodness-of-fit tests for a heavy tailed distribution

We study the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Berk–Jones test, score test and their integrated versions in the context of testing the goodness-of-fit of a heavy tailed distribution function. A comparison of these tests is conducted via Bahadur efficiency and simulations.     

论19世纪末年的社会心态

自戊戌变法后期清朝政府守旧派掌控朝政始的19世纪末年,趋新的社会风气转为沉闷;特别是义和团运动时期,守旧派将其仇新、排外的情绪推向极至,直接导引了普通民众的冷漠与无知、新式知识分子的压抑与彷徨心态。     

Estimating conditional tail expectation with actuarial applications in view

We develop statistical inferential tools for estimating and comparing conditional tail expectation (CTE) functions, which are of considerable interest in actuarial science. In particular, we construct estimators for the CTE functions, develop the necessary asymptotic theory for the estimators, and then use the theory for constructing confidence intervals and bands for the functions. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are explored. Simulation studies illustrate the performance of estimators in various situations. Results are obtained under minimal assumptions, and the general Vervaat process plays a crucial role in achieving these goals.     

Life Years Lost at Hazardous Waste Sites: Remediation Worker Fatalities vs. Cancer Deaths to Nearby Residents

We present a hypothetical case study using the Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) metric to compare cancer risks incurred by residents living near a Superfund site to occupational fatality risks incurred by workers employed in that site's remediation. Since cancer occurs late in life, and because we assume its mortality rate is 60%, each case results in 8.8 YPLL. Each occupational fatality, which typically occurs earlier in life, results in 38.1 YPLL. In our case study, the residential population of 5000 incurred 1.3 YPLL, compared to 5.7 YPLL incurred by the 500 workers. Several uncertain assumptions may influence our calculations; moreover, occupational risks may be viewed as more "voluntary" than risks incurred by residents. However, because the magnitude of the YPLL incurred by workers and residents may be comparable, risk managers should consider occupational risks when evaluating remedial alternatives.     

张家山汉简《二年律令》研究述评

近五年来,有关张家山汉简《二年律令》的研究有了较大拓展,主要集中在五个方面。一是律文释疑,包括律文的制作年代、简的分类和顺序、简文个别字词的理解。二是政治史研究,包括官制、吏治、中央与地方关系、关津制度。三是经济史研究,包括土地制度、税收制度、赋役制度、货币制度。四是社会文化史研究,包括户籍问题、继承问题、妇女问题、奴婢问题。五是法律史研究,主要侧重考察《二年律令》中律令的渊源、分类与格式、法律思想、刑罚原则以及具体刑罚。总结近年学界对《二年律令》的研究成果,将有助于秦汉史的进一步深入研究。     

Bayesian mixture modeling for spatial Poisson process intensities,with applications to extreme value analysis

We propose a method for the analysis of a spatial point pattern, which is assumed to arise as a set of observations from a spatial nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The spatial point pattern is observed in a bounded region, which, for most applications, is taken to be a rectangle in the space where the process is defined. The method is based on modeling a density function, defined on this bounded region, that is directly related with the intensity function of the Poisson process. We develop a flexible nonparametric mixture model for this density using a bivariate Beta distribution for the mixture kernel and a Dirichlet process prior for the mixing distribution. Using posterior simulation methods, we obtain full inference for the intensity function and any other functional of the process that might be of interest. We discuss applications to problems where inference for clustering in the spatial point pattern is of interest. Moreover, we consider applications of the methodology to extreme value analysis problems. We illustrate the modeling approach with three previously published data sets. Two of the data sets are from forestry and consist of locations of trees. The third data set consists of extremes from the Dow Jones index over a period of 1303 days.