Ordered ranked set samples and applications to inference

Ranked set sampling (RSS) was first proposed by McIntyre [1952. A method for unbiased selective sampling, using ranked sets. Australian J. Agricultural Res. 3, 385–390] as an effective way to estimate the unknown population mean. Chuiv and Sinha [1998. On some aspects of ranked set sampling in parametric estimation. In: Balakrishnan, N., Rao, C.R. (Eds.), Handbook of Statistics, vol. 17. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 337–377] and Chen et al. [2004. Ranked Set Sampling—Theory and Application. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 176. Springer, New York] have provided excellent surveys of RSS and various inferential results based on RSS. In this paper, we use the idea of order statistics from independent and non-identically distributed (INID) random variables to propose ordered ranked set sampling (ORSS) and then develop optimal linear inference based on ORSS. We determine the best linear unbiased estimators based on ORSS (BLUE-ORSS) and show that they are more efficient than BLUE-RSS for the two-parameter exponential, normal and logistic distributions. Although this is not the case for the one-parameter exponential distribution, the relative efficiency of the BLUE-ORSS (to BLUE-RSS) is very close to 1. Furthermore, we compare both BLUE-ORSS and BLUE-RSS with the BLUE based on order statistics from a simple random sample (BLUE-OS). We show that BLUE-ORSS is uniformly better than BLUE-OS, while BLUE-RSS is not as efficient as BLUE-OS for small sample sizes (n<5$n<5$).     

Estimating conditional tail expectation with actuarial applications in view

We develop statistical inferential tools for estimating and comparing conditional tail expectation (CTE) functions, which are of considerable interest in actuarial science. In particular, we construct estimators for the CTE functions, develop the necessary asymptotic theory for the estimators, and then use the theory for constructing confidence intervals and bands for the functions. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are explored. Simulation studies illustrate the performance of estimators in various situations. Results are obtained under minimal assumptions, and the general Vervaat process plays a crucial role in achieving these goals.     

Lower bounds on expectations of positive L-statistics from without-replacement models

We consider samples drawn without replacement from finite populations. We establish optimal lower non-negative and upper non-positive bounds on the expectations of linear combinations of order statistics centered about the population mean in units generated by the population central absolute moments of various orders. We also specify the general results for important examples of sample extremes, Gini mean differences and sample range. The paper completes the results of Papadatos and Rychlik [2004. Bounds on expectations of L-statistics from without replacement samples. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 124, 317–336], where sharp negative lower and positive upper bounds on the expectations of the combinations were presented for the without-replacement samples.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for a heavy tailed distribution

We study the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Berk–Jones test, score test and their integrated versions in the context of testing the goodness-of-fit of a heavy tailed distribution function. A comparison of these tests is conducted via Bahadur efficiency and simulations.     

文学经典的批评与文学批评的经典化——以建国后十七年文学经典的批评为中心

建国后十七年，文学批评的主流意识形态话语通过掌握文学经典的解释权而取得主导地位，其具体方式是颠覆原有经典、重新确认经典、文学经典重释、原有经典强化以及确立新时代经典，筒言之，通过共时态的文学经典建构与历时性的经典评价从而实现文学批评的经典化。由于文学经典的形成受他律性因素的支配，文学批评的经典化与非经典化范围总是处于流变之中，其流变的复杂过程呈现了建国前后文学批评观念的转型态势，也预示着建国后主流批评话语的建构方向。     

创伤与治疗——对读苏联作品看中国十七年战争文学

中国十七年时期，刘真、路翎、王愿坚、赵寻等人独辟蹊径，勇敢地创作了一批反思战争创伤的作品。他们惋惜战争中逝去的生命，揭示战争对美好人生的戕害，并提出修复、治疗战争创伤的良好愿望。但是借助于苏联同时期相关作品的对读，尚可发现这些作品仍有其未能或不敢触及的“伤疤”。     

Life Years Lost at Hazardous Waste Sites: Remediation Worker Fatalities vs. Cancer Deaths to Nearby Residents

We present a hypothetical case study using the Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) metric to compare cancer risks incurred by residents living near a Superfund site to occupational fatality risks incurred by workers employed in that site's remediation. Since cancer occurs late in life, and because we assume its mortality rate is 60%, each case results in 8.8 YPLL. Each occupational fatality, which typically occurs earlier in life, results in 38.1 YPLL. In our case study, the residential population of 5000 incurred 1.3 YPLL, compared to 5.7 YPLL incurred by the 500 workers. Several uncertain assumptions may influence our calculations; moreover, occupational risks may be viewed as more "voluntary" than risks incurred by residents. However, because the magnitude of the YPLL incurred by workers and residents may be comparable, risk managers should consider occupational risks when evaluating remedial alternatives.     

宗施与宗法制解体在《侯马盟书》中的反映

侯马盟书的内容反映了春秋末年宗族解体的事实,而宗族的解体则是当时社会结构的一个重要变化,宗法制的周人传统在战乱频仍中逐渐走向消亡。当然这个过程是缓慢的,宗族的解体并不是突然分崩离析,盟书仍然强调效忠“宗主”,还提到“宗人兄弟”,说明这个时期宗族的外壳还在,只是它的本质发生了变化。这种变化,正是春秋末年社会结构演变的重要表征。     

我国人口预期寿命的结构及影响因素研究—基于省级面板数据的分析

基于省级面板数据,本文对预期寿命结构及其影响因素问题进行研究。首先,文章分析了我国整体预期寿命及两性预期寿命的地理分布特性,随时间的变化特点,以及与经济发展水平的关系。然后,建立预期寿命的固定效应模型,分析不同影响因素与预期寿命的关系。研究发现经济发展水平、教育和卫生资源对男性和女性预期寿命会产生不同的影响,其中经济发展水平会显著影响女性预期寿命,而教育对男性预期寿命的影响更显著。由此,经济发展水平的提高会导致两性预期寿命差距的增加,而教育水平的提高和卫生资源投入的增加则可能会降低两性预期寿命的差距。