Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.

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Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.

* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken.     

新硼试剂3—甲氧基—甲亚胺H与硼显色反应的研究

对新硼试剂3-甲氧基-甲亚胺H与硼显色反应体系研究结果表明,在pH=5的醋酸-醋酸铵缓冲体系中,硼与3-甲氧基-甲亚胺H在常温下形成2:3的黄绿色配合物,配合物稳定24h以上,λmax=410nm,ε550=6.82×104cm·mol-1·L-1,硼含量在0～2.5μg/25mL范围符合比耳定律.     

On the asymptotic normality of the L1- and L2-errors in histogram density estimation

The L₁ and L₂-errors of the histogram estimate of a density f from a sample X₁,X₂,…,Xn using a cubic partition are shown to be asymptotically normal without any unnecessary conditions imposed on the density f. The asymptotic variances are shown to depend on f only through the corresponding norm of f. From this follows the asymptotic null distribution of a goodness-of-fit test based on the total variation distance, introduced by Györfi and van der Meulen (1991). This note uses the idea of partial inversion for obtaining characteristic functions of conditional distributions, which goes back at least to Bartlett (1938).     

Generalized partially linear varying-coefficient models

Generalized varying-coefficient models are useful extensions of generalized linear models. They arise naturally when investigating how regression coefficients change over different groups characterized by certain covariates such as age. In this paper, we extend these models to generalized partially linear varying-coefficient models, in which some coefficients are constants and the others are functions of certain covariates. Procedures for estimating the linear and non-parametric parts are developed and their associated statistical properties are studied. The methods proposed are illustrated using some simulations and real data analysis.     

义务教育乡镇管理体制评析

由于乡镇的财力单薄,管理水平偏低,管理心态失衡,乡镇政府难以有效管理本乡镇义务教育。改革义务教育乡镇管理体制,必须废除监护人直接支付的筹资方式,实行税收统筹分拨的筹资方式,建立省、县、乡三级义务教育管理体制,从经济上保证儿童受教育的权利。     

Estimating the distribution function using k-tuple ranked set samples

The basic assumption underlying the concept of ranked set sampling is that actual measurement of units is expensive, whereas ranking is cheap. This may not be true in reality in certain cases where ranking may be moderately expensive. In such situations, based on total cost considerations, k-tuple ranked set sampling is known to be a viable alternative, where one selects k units (instead of one) from each ranked set. In this article, we consider estimation of the distribution function based on k-tuple ranked set samples when the cost of selecting and ranking units is not ignorable. We investigate estimation both in the balanced and unbalanced data case. Properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of ranking error are also investigated. Results of simulation studies as well as an application to a real data set are presented to illustrate some of the theoretical findings.     

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution function in a semiparametric censorship model

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric estimator of the conditional distribution function under a semiparametric censorship model. We establish an asymptotic representation of the estimator as a sum of iid random variables, balanced by some kernel weights. This representation is used for obtaining large sample results such as the rate of uniform convergence of the estimator, or its limit distributional law. We prove that the new estimator outperforms the conditional Kaplan–Meier estimator for censored data, in the sense that it exhibits lower asymptotic variance. Illustration through real data analysis is provided.     

Block external bootstrap in partially linear models with nonstationary strong mixing error terms

The authors extend the block external bootstrap to partially linear regression models with strongly mixing, nonstationary error terms. In addition to providing an approximate distribution for the semiparametric least square estimator of the parametric component, they propose a consistent estimator of the co‐variance matrix of this estimator.     

按“知”分配何以可能？

我国高校教师薪酬在计划经济时期以平均分配为价值取向,在市场经济时期以效率为价值取向。在中国特色社会主义新时代和知识经济时期,鼓励知识创新和兑现知识价值成为新的取向。我国高校现行岗位绩效工资制度虽然将教师的实际贡献与薪酬分配联系了起来,但也存在薪酬结构缺陷、薪酬测量失真、薪酬激励偏移和薪酬调整滞后等问题。与岗位绩效工资相比,按“知”分配的3P-M薪酬模型改进了人力资本薪酬（P₁）,以补偿教师人力资本的前期投入、当期追加和后期增值;调整了岗位薪酬（P₂）,通过强化保障性薪酬以轧平薪酬曲线斜率;优化了绩效薪酬（P₃）,以解决教师多任务“委托—代理”的契约设计问题;新增了市场薪酬（M）,以补偿因内部薪酬总量不足给教师带来的潜在损失。其中,3P重在盘活存量,M重在扩充增量,两者共同构成了3+X薪酬体系。     

平面三次微分系统研究综述

本文首先阐明了研究E3的重要意义,然后指出E3的一般性质。奇点的分类与判定极限环线与奇异闭轨的存在性与唯一性,相对位置与代数曲线解．