Household demographic change and land use/land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Demographic interest in population and environment has grown in recent decades. One of the most prominent research areas in this tradition addresses the impact of population on land use and land cover change. Building on this tradition, we examine the effects of household demographic composition on land use and land cover on small farms in two study areas in the Brazilian Amazon. Fixed effects regression models of used area and forested area show few consistent effects of changes in household demography on land use and land cover change. Effects are inconsistent with the household life cycle model that currently dominates the literature on household demographic effects in frontiers. Changes in the number of children and women, particularly young women, have the most significant effects on land use and land cover change. We conclude by arguing that households strategically access cash for investment in agriculture and that specific strategies are determined by economic and institutional context.

Ecological analysis of adolescent birth rates in Brazil: Association with Human Development Index

BackgroundAdolescent pregnancy is a multidimensional public health problem. It is known that every year in Brazil approximately 1.1 million adolescents become pregnant and around 20% of all newborns are born to teenage mothers.AimThis ecological study describes the spatio-temporal patterns of the percentages of live births to adolescent mothers between the years of 2010 and 2016 in Brazil and their associations with human development indexes in the meso-regions where they reside.MethodsPercentages of live births to adolescent mothers are the ratio between the number of live births to women aged 10–19 years old and total number of live births in each Brazilian meso-regions during the study period. A spatio-temporal Bayesian model was used to associate the percentages of live births to adolescent mothers with the human development index of each meso-region. Moran’s index was used to measure the spatial autocorrelation between the meso-regions at an aggregate level, whereas the local indicator of spatial auto-correlation measured local correlation.FindingsPercentages of live births to adolescent mothers for the whole country were 19.3% in 2010 and 17.5% in 2016. There is a heterogeneous spatial distribution pattern for these percentages, being the highest percentages in the North region (24.8% in 2016) and the lowest percentages in the Southeast region of the country (14.3% in 2016). The Bayesian model showed that meso-regions with lower human development index values have higher percentages of live births to adolescent mothers.ConclusionOur findings suggest that adolescent pregnancy is deeply associated with environmental characteristics.     

The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000

Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in Brazil, one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, a figure that increased about fivefold by the 2000 census. However, due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real size of the recorded population in the Brazilian census. We offer alternative estimates of the most likely number of centenarians during the twentieth century by combining variable-r relations with different mortality models. Our results indicate there was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century. The population has become larger than 1,000 individuals only in the 1990s, suggesting there has been an extensive, although diminishing, overenumeration of centenarians in the census records. Our results can help policymakers to plan the demands of a growing old age population in places that face stricter family and public budget constraints.     

A Brazilian pandemia/monium: A researcher’s search for a ‘New Normal’

This is the narrative of a Brazilian PhD candidate during the first four months of COVID‐19 in Brazil. Her trajectory and feelings are expressed in evocative autoethnographic format, juxtaposed with the main feminist debates and concerns taking place in Brazil during the pandemic. As scenario, an unprecedented worldwide sanitary crisis and local economic, political and social crises, challenging activists, feminists and the researcher herself in posing new questions to understand the world, her country and herself during/after crises. Her own feminist lenses cannot read ‘New Normal’ comfortably.     

巴西新能源产业发展经验及其启示

1975年以来,巴西成功地发展了以生物乙醇为代表的新能源产业,其发展经验包括:应根据要素禀赋、市场需求、支持及相关性产业等条件合理选择和培育区域优势产业;政府产业政策的取向在于形成产业的市场竞争力,其着眼点在于促进产业链或产业链组合的发展。这些经验为我国发展新能源产业提供了重要启示。     

Neo-development of underdevelopment: Brazil and the political economy of South American integration under the Workers’ Party

ABSTRACT

This article critically assesses Brazil’s role in the South American regional integration process. My hypothesis is that despite the rhetoric of Brazil’s Workers’ Party (PT) governments about a ‘new developmentalism’ project to support ‘post-neoliberal’ regional integration, the structural continuities imposed by neoliberal macroeconomic policies have constrained all possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment. In the realm of regional integration, the driving force has been the internationalization of oligopolic Brazilian business in a process that promised Brazil a leadership role in the subcontinent. This frame has fostered business based on the overexploitation of labour and the destruction of the environment, enforcing trends that deepen the structures of economic dependency and social conflict. The political outcome of that process is that the PT has contributed to contain social pressures, both in the domestic and in regional contexts, as Brazil has played a moderating role in South America’s so-called progressive wave.     

Shifts in modes of governance and sustainable development in the Brazilian oil sector

This article discusses shifts in modes of governance in the Brazilian oil sector over a 60-year period. On the basis of Driessen et al.'s (2012) framework, we discuss the impact of these shifts on sustainable development. Our results suggest that changes in modes of governance were driven by regulation and mostly associated with shifts in both actors and institutional features but that the underlying rationale of prioritising economic outcomes remained unaffected. The results also confirm that a central governance structure remained in place over time and co-existed in different modes of governance. Petrobras was the backbone of this structure and instrumental in empowering and disempowering non-state actors. This article stresses that a mode of governance furthering sustainable development should promote interactions of large numbers of actors and may require active participation of Petrobras to encourage rationales that support improvements in social and environmental domains.     

跨国粮商控制下巴西大豆在中国进口市场上的竞争潜力

中国是世界大豆进口大国,美国、巴西和阿根廷形成了向中国出口大豆的寡头垄断格局。但由于跨国粮商对大豆产业链的控制,中国在国际大豆市场缺乏定价权,卖方寡头垄断也被弱化。追求出口利益诱使巴西与美国在中国大豆市场竞争。从巴西大豆对中国的出口潜力、定价能力和政策动向3个维度考察了在跨国粮商控制下的中国大豆进口市场上巴西与美国之间的竞争关系。研究发现：长期内巴西对中国出口的大豆数量替代美国,短期内巴西出口旺季垄断能力加强且旺季持续时间延长;巴西积极调整大豆生产和贸易政策既提高了大豆出口自主定价能力和国际竞争力,又有利于拓展中国大豆进口政策选择空间,改善中国从大豆进口中的贸易获益。最后,简要阐述了该结论蕴含的政策意义。     

近代巴西为什么没有出现考迪罗主义?

巴西独立后,没有出现考迪罗主义的统治。原因在于:巴西大地产制的特点;王室统治势力比较强大;军人的政治影响相对弱小;思想文化方面的落后状态。     

巴西悖论:有利于穷人经济状况的改善而中产阶级未有受益

巴西目前所存在这一社会现象,即穷人经济地位在改善,而中产阶级经济地位在下滑,从理论上说不应存在互为因果关系,二者亦不是一种互为伴生现象,它的出现是政府政策缺位所致。这是我们建设和谐社会应当汲取的教训。