新经济增长理论评析与启示

新经济增长理论强调知识、技术、人力资本对经济增长的巨大作用,打开了索罗"余值"的"黑箱",给出了技术变化一个内生的解释,为人们重新认识经济的长期增长,提供了许多深刻的看法。新经济增长理论也为我国西部地区经济增长提供了很好的启示。在新的历史时期,西部地区经济发展应实施"双重优势战略",切实依靠科技进步,加大知识、技术的投入,加快人力资源培育和开发的步伐,不断创造和完善有利于推进科技进步,充分发挥人力资本作用的制度环境。     

The univariate distribution function for a particular bilinear model

The aim of the paper is to find the univariate stationary distribution of a particular bilinear process. In this context, we propose a novel approach to derive the distribution function. It is based on a recursive formula and allows to relax the conditions on the moments of the process. We also show that the derived approximation converges to the true distribution function. The accuracy of the recursive formula is evaluated for finite sample dimensions by a small simulation study.Received: February 2003, Revised: May 2004,     

Robust methods in econometrics

This survey of recent developments in robust estimation and inference is directed primarily toward econometricians. It is argued that many of the techniques in common use in econometrics are highly sensitive to unverified hypotheses. Recent progress in designing alternative robust procedures is described and some prospects for future developments are discussed.     

VaR-APARCH模型与证券投资风险量化分析

基本统计分析发现,上证综合指数回报率分布存在尖峰肥尾性,不服从正态分布,并且还具有杠杆效应。本文应用APARCH模型在三种分布假设下对上证综合指数通过事后模拟和条件单步预测来计算上证综合指数的VaR风险值,然后把它与应用GARCH模型的估计结果进行比较分析。通过返回检验,我们发现,APARCH应用于VaR估计是统计有效的,并且明显优于GARHC模型。     

网络环境下数字化产品适用的营销模型研究

互联网和电子商务的广泛应用与开展,为数字产品营销提供了巨大的市场空间.同时,数字产品独特的交易过程也使其营销过程不同与传统产品.本文探讨三种经典的营销模型4P、4C和4S应用到数字产品的营销时的适用性.在已有研究总结出的四条命题基础上,通过三种渠道收集了45个数字产品营销工具作为样本,采用分类方法将三种经典的营销模型作为分类框架,对样本进行分类比较研究,验证了提出的五条假设并发现了三条有意义的结论:其一,数字产品的可试性和其需要的营销工具数量显著相关;其二,三种营销模型对不同种类的数字产品存在适用性的差异;其三,在网络营销环境中,数字产品常用的传输模式(下载和交互)与其适宜的分销方式(网上商店和独立网站)之间存在因果关系.     

Intelligent scheduling model and algorithm for manufacturing

This paper puts forward an intelligent scheduling model based on Hopfield neural network and a unified algorithm for manufacturing. The energy computation function and its dynamic state equation are derived and discussed in detail about their coefficients (parameters) and steps (Delta t) in iteration towards convergence. The unified model is focused on the structure of the above function and equation, in which the goal and penalty items must be involved and meet different schedule models. The applications to different schedule mode including jobshop static scheduling, scheduling with due-date constraint or priority constraint, dynamic scheduling, and JIT (just in time) scheduling are discussed, and a series of examples with Gantt charts are illustrated.     

省域内多地区投入产出表的编制和更新：江苏案例

 运用地区投入产出表解释区域内经济的空间关联特征及演化规律已成为当今区域经济研究的一个重要研究方向，但目前我国省域内多地区投入产出表的编制和应用研究尚少见。本文以《江苏投入产出表》(1987年和2002年)、1987年江苏部分地级市地区投入产出表和《江苏统计年鉴》等数据为基础，编制和更新了1987年和2002年江苏省苏南、苏中、苏北3个区域、30个部门的省域内区域间投入产出表。论文的关键技术包括：通过计算全要素生产率(TFP)形式的差异推算出直接消耗系数矩阵；通过引力模型来推算区域间流入流出的贸易系数矩阵；通过交叉熵(CE)技术，使得直接消耗系数矩阵的更新在已有信息条件下信息损失最小化。     

论我国戒毒模式中社会工作者的角色

本文主要分析了社会工作者在我国目前的几种戒毒模式中可以扮演的角色和实现途径。社会工作者在自愿戒毒模式中的角色是服务提供者和倡导者，在强制戒毒模式中的角色是协调者，在劳教戒毒模式中的角色是咨询者和组织者，在TC戒毒模式中的角色和功能是支持者。     

A note on connectedness in fixed effects manova and gmanova models withmissing cells

Murray and Smith (1985) and Hocking (1985) give a generalized definition and test of connectedness in the case of missing cells using the univariate cell-means model with linear restrictions on the cell-means. The test of connectedness is here extended to multivariate fixed effects models, including the usual MANOVA model with linear restrictions, the MANOVA model with double linear restrictions, and the GMANOVA model.     

Seasonal Time Series and Transfer Function Modeling

A simple modification is suggested for the construction of transfer function models relating an output variable Y_t to an input variable X_t when the model for X_t contains operators that cancel out. In addition, the evaluation of transfer function models is discussed by comparing the forecasts with the actual observations.