我国旅游业运营管理成功因素与路径选择

从基础资源论视角阐释我国旅游业竞争优势,构建旅游业广义资源集,运用德尔菲法揭示我国旅游业运营管理的21个相关成功因素,并建构六个层级ISM模型:政府管制政策、服务和管理创新能力、自然条件和地理条件处于最基础的第一层,对旅游产业运营战略目标实现具有最为关键性影响;基础设施设备利用率、价格水平、组织机构的战略匹配性、供应链管理能力、财务管理能力、新市场开拓能力位居第五层,对旅游产业运营战略目标实现具有最直接影响,但并非关键性影响。利用手段—目的链法,识别出旅游业运营管理的5个关键成功因素:政府管制政策、服务和管理创新能力、自然地理条件、人力资源开发及管理能力、服务能力及服务质量。应抓住5个关键因素,实现我国旅游业运营管理的路径优化,以提高产业运营绩效,实现运营战略目标,推动我国旅游业转型升级发展。     

城市化水平预测方法研究——以BP神经网络模型的应用为例

经济因素相关分析法是城市化水平预测领域较常使用的方法之一。然而,由于经济发展与城市化发展水平之间相互关系的作用模式较为复杂,传统的预测方法在实际应用时往往难以取得较为理想的预测效果。本文拟运用BP神经网络模型在这一领域进行新的尝试。     

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation, and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely, (i) asymmetric models, (ii) factor models, (iii) time-varying correlation models, and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, the Cholesky decomposition, and the Wishart autoregressive process. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods of diagnostic checking and model comparison are also reviewed.     

灰色动态模型在人口总量预测中的应用

在介绍灰色动态模型原理与模型检验的数学理论的基础上考察灰色动态模型在人口总量预测中的应用,结合实际建立人口总量预测模型,经模拟预测残差检验和后验差检验均为“很好”,说明该模型具有一定的应用价值。     

Asymptotic efficiency of majority rule relative to rank-sum method for selecting the best population

The ranking and selection problem has been well-studied in the case of continuous responses. In this paper, we address the situation in which continuous responses are replaced by discrete orderings. When individuals in the population provide exhaustive rank-orderings of the alternatives, two common decision rules are the majority rule and the rank-sum method. In the former case, the alternative receiving the most first-place votes is declared superior, while in the latter, the alternative with the smallest rank-sum is deemed the best. Both the Pitman efficiencies and the lower bounds on Bahadur efficiencies of the majority rule relative to the rank-sum method are derived, assuming that the rank data are generated from either the Plackett–Luce or the translative strengths models. In addition, finite sample properties of the two methods are compared with the maximum likelihood approach through simulation studies. Our results suggest two things. First, when it is substantially more difficult to obtain a complete rank-ordering than simply the top choice, the majority rule performs adequately and efforts would be better spent asking many voters to provide top choice rather than fewer voters to provide complete orderings. Second, the rank-sum rule compares favorably to, and is substantially more robust than, the maximum likelihood approach.     

城市循环经济评价指标体系的设计

在研究国际上衡量社会发展指标体系的基础上,提出城市循环经济评价指标体系,指出城市循环经济评价指标体系是政府政绩考核的重要依据。该指标体系以产业、城市基础设施、人居环境和社会消费四大体系为设计基础,基于经济发展指数、绿色发展指数和人文发展指数,共涵盖了24个指标。     

论我国不应引入辩诉交易制度

本文从我国缺乏设立辩诉交易的制度环境、辩诉交易与我国现行刑事诉讼法的规定相冲突和辩诉交易制度的应用所造成的问题等三个方面论述了我国不应引入辩诉交易制度。     

论财务危机预警研究的两大难题

有效的财务危机预警系统不仅可以预知危机、防范风险，起到未雨绸缪的作用，而且还能及时寻找导致财务危机的根源，使经营者有的放矢，避免企业破产。财务危机预警模型的构建和样本选取两大难题，是制约财务危机预警研究向纵深发展的重要因素。     

The Economics of Public Beta Testing

A growing number of software firms now rely on public beta testing to improve the quality of their products before commercial release. While the benefits resulting from improved software reliability are well recognized, some important market‐related benefits have not been studied. Through word‐of‐mouth, public beta testers can accelerate the diffusion of a software product after its release. Additionally, because of network effects, public beta testers can increase users’ valuation of a product. In this study, we consider both reliability‐related and market‐related benefits, and develop models to determine the optimal number of public beta testers and the optimal duration of testing. Our analyses show that public beta testing can be profitable even if word‐of‐mouth and network effects are the only benefits. Furthermore, when both benefits are considered, there is significant “economies of scope”—the net profit increases at a faster rate when both word‐of‐mouth and network effects are significant than when only one benefit is present. Finally, our sensitivity analyses demonstrate that public beta testing remains highly valuable to software firms over a wide range of testing and market conditions. In particular, firms will realize greater profits when recruiting public beta testers who are interested in the software but unable to afford it.     

Multivariate Bayesian variable selection and prediction

The multivariate regression model is considered with p regressors. A latent vector with p binary entries serves to identify one of two types of regression coefficients: those close to 0 and those not. Specializing our general distributional setting to the linear model with Gaussian errors and using natural conjugate prior distributions, we derive the marginal posterior distribution of the binary latent vector. Fast algorithms aid its direct computation, and in high dimensions these are supplemented by a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to sampling from the known posterior distribution. Problems with hundreds of regressor variables become quite feasible. We give a simple method of assigning the hyperparameters of the prior distribution. The posterior predictive distribution is derived and the approach illustrated on compositional analysis of data involving three sugars with 160 near infrared absorbances as regressors.