A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation

Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.     

高等教育制度改革后贫困大学生心理健康问题浅析

本文阐述了高等教育制度改革后贫困大学生的心理健康问题,分析了贫困大学生心理健康问题的原因,并提出了化解贫困大学生心理健康问题的对策。     

代谢综合征基础与临床系列研究——GRGDSP/7E3对动脉粥样硬化内皮细胞MMPs的mRNA表达的影响

目的了解GRGDSP/7E3对基质金属蛋白酶（MMP-2,MMP-9）mRNA表达的影响。方法体外培养人脐静脉内皮细胞,分别用酶谱法和逆转录聚合酶链式反应（RT-PCR）检测MMP-2,MMP-9活性和mRNA表达。待细胞融合成单层后,分别加入无血清培养基、静息期血小板、活化后血小板及interleukin-1β（IL-1β）,共同培养60min后,洗去血小板,内皮细胞继续培养6h。上清液及细胞分别用于酶谱法检测MMP-2和MMP-9活性,以及RT-PCR分析mRNA表达。结果内皮细胞与活化血小板共同培养后,酶谱法显示：与对照组相比,未活化的血小板轻微诱导MMP-2和MMP-9分泌,而活化状态的血小板能显著诱导这二者的分泌,与IL-1β的作用相当;而且还可以见到62kDaMMP-2活化形式。加入阻断剂GRGDSP以及GPⅡb/Ⅲa单克隆抗体（7E3）作用后检测发现,MMP-2和MMP-9分泌减少。与活化血小板共同培养后的内皮细胞表面表达uPAR和MT1-MMP以及上清液中MMP-2的mRNA与对照组相比明显增高,而静息状态的血小板作用不显著。加入GRGDSP或7E3后,mR-NA的表达降低。结论①活化状态的血小板与IL-1β的作用相当,能显著诱导MMP-2和MMP-9分泌;能明显增高内皮细胞（EC）-uPAR和MT1-MMP及上清液中MMP-2mRNA的表达;②GPⅡb/Ⅲa阻断剂可能抑制血小板在不稳定斑块部位聚集、粘附等一系列炎症反应。     

基于SVM的综合实力评估系统研究

简略介绍了支持向量机的基本思想 ,研究其在综合评价中的应用。分析了对大学进行实力评估的过程 ,建立基于SVM的评价系统。比较新评价系统和采用其他方法如PCA (PrincipalComponentAnalysis主元分析 ) ,Fisher等建立的评价系统所分别取得的拟合效果。结果表明 :采用支持向量机设计的评价系统思路清晰 ,操作简单并且能取得更为理想的评估结果。     

国际基督教工会联合会与早期欧洲一体化

第二次世界大战后 ,作为欧洲压力集团之一的基督教工会通过其国际组织———国际基督教工会联合会 ,以个人活动和参与欧洲机构正式协商机制的方式 ,试图在欧洲早期一体化进程中维护基督教工会和工人的权利及利益。该组织的活动虽然取得了一定成就 ,但从总体上讲 ,其对欧洲经济政治一体化的影响仍然十分有限     

Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.     

Risk,trust and knowledge networks in farmers’ learning

This study reports on New Zealand dairy farmers’ access to and use of information as mediated through conditions of risk and trust within the context of their interpersonal social networks. We located participants’ reports of their information use within their perceived environments of trust and risk, following Giddens's [1990. The consequences of modernity. Polity Press, Stanford, CA] typology of trust and risk in pre-modernity and modernity. The research participants were constant users of interpersonal and print information from numerous sources, and monitored their incoming data in the light of strategic needs, reflecting their roles as both farming practitioners and business owners. Socio-spatial knowledge networks (SSKNs) combine individuals’ explanatory cognitive models of information acquisition and use with a micro-geographical analysis of their interpersonal networks. The participants showed characteristics of pre-modern, modern and even post-modern society in respect of their use of complex interactional forms, as well as a blending of individualistic and communitarian practices and concerns in their professional and personal lives.     

刑事普通程序简化审理的制度选择与模式构建

现代社会犯罪率上升 ,刑事司法积案严重 ,对适用普通程序的刑事案件实行简化审理 ,有助于提高诉讼效率、缩短诉讼周期、降低诉讼成本 ,是司法实践中行之有效的应对之举。本文从刑事案件实行普通程序简化审理的海外借鉴及现实需要等角度论证了实行该制度的必然性 ,并从理论与实践相结合的角度 ,对普通程序简化审理的适用条件与操作流程作了深入的阐述     

矩阵方程XA＝B的亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解

给出了四元数体Ｑ上ｎ×ｎ分块矩阵为亚（半）正定自共轭矩阵的一个充要条件，进而给出了Ｑ上矩阵方程ＸＡｎｍ＝Ｂｎｍ有亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解的充要条件及解集合的显式表示，从而推广改进了数城上线性方程组的反问题及矩阵反问题的相应结果．     

用于分散电压控制的规则库法

电力系统正常运行时,无功/电压控制目的是安全经济供电.而在紧急情况下,首要目标是运行的安全性,其次才是经济性.本文提出的局部网概念及其灵敏度矩阵,以及对电压违限严重性的分级和控制战略,使控制更为快速有效.此法更适用于当事故引起全系统运行数据不全时对局部网的电压控制.