基于DEA方法的科研机构方向规模收益研究

DEA模型是目前公共部门(包括科研机构)规模收益分析的常用方法之一.现有通过DEA方法估算科研机构规模收益的研究都是从传统规模收益经济学定义出发,假定多种投入和产出按相同比例进行变化,从而定性定量判定DMU单元的规模收益情况.由于科研活动的复杂性,在科研组织中各类投入或产出的变化往往并不相同.因此,现有DEA框架中关于规模收益的定义(基于径向测度)不能满足多投入多产出情况下科研机构规模收益估算的需要.本文采用可变比例规模收益思想,将DEA方法框架下规模收益定义扩展为方向规模收益,并研究提出科研机构方向规模收益分析的新方法.最后,本文以2009年中国科学院16个基础领域研究所为案例,进行深入分析.     

现代信用风险度量模型的实证比较与适用性分析

本文通过实证比较分析发现,现代信用风险度量模型对银行贷款的违约率、贷款损失和损失率的预测结果的差异性较大;但信用监测模型和信用风险附加法所预测的经济资本配置比例不仅符合巴塞尔协议对银行贷款经济资本的要求,也略大于实际应该配置的比例,实证表明了它们对度量我国商业银行贷款组合的信用风险具有较好的适用性.此外,本文也充分验证了借款人信用等级的不同,银行贷款经济资本配置的比例会有显著性的差异.     

浅析现代资本市场体系下的保险资金

本文对现代资本市场体系下的保险资金进行了分析,首先分析了保险资金的构成,接着对保险资金和资本市场的相互关系进行了考察,并分析了当前保险资金运用的现状,最后提出了对当前保险资金运用的思考。     

公司治理与资本结构优化问题

本文在公司治理理论的基础上,分析了公司治理、债务结构与管理者之间的关系,强调了债务机制与管理者激励在企业改革与资本结构优化中的重要作用,认为要提高国家巨大投资的效率,必须重构公司治理结构、优化公司资本结构.     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

Path to “Stardom” in Globally Distributed Hybrid Teams: An Examination of a Knowledge‐Centered Perspective using Social Network Analysis

Although distributed teams have been researched extensively in information systems and decision science disciplines, a review of the literature suggests that the dominant focus has been on understanding the factors affecting performance at the team level. There has however been an increasing recognition that specific individuals within such teams are often critical to the team's performance. Consequently, existing knowledge about such teams may be enhanced by examining the factors that affect the performance of individual team members. This study attempts to address this need by identifying individuals who emerge as “stars” in globally distributed teams involved in knowledge work such as information systems development (ISD). Specifically, the study takes a knowledge‐centered view in explaining which factors lead to “stardom” in such teams. Further, it adopts a social network approach consistent with the core principles of structural/relational analysis in developing and empirically validating the research model. Data from U.S.–Scandinavia self‐managed “hybrid” teams engaged in systems development were used to deductively test the proposed model. The overall study has several implications for group decision making: (i) the study focuses on stars within distributed teams, who play an important role in shaping group decision making, and emerge as a result of a negotiated/consensual decision making within egalitarian teams; (ii) an examination of emergent stars from the team members’ point of view reflects the collective acceptance and support dimension decision‐making contexts identified in prior literature; (iii) finally, the study suggests that the social network analysis technique using relational data can be a tool for a democratic decision‐making technique within groups.     

金融竞争、相对资本深化与地区经济效率

 与国内外大多从财政收支角度来研究地区的策略性竞争行为不同,本文通过建立空间计量模型检验了我国地区间金融策略性行为,通过构造相对资本深度指标研究了这种背景下地区资本深化对经济效率的影响。研究表明,地区之间的金融策略性竞争行为具有显著的阶段性特征,在很大程度上受地方财政资源充裕程度的影响;从平均意义上来看,全国总体的金融配置并不符合各地资源禀赋结构所决定的最优相对资本深度,存在效率损失,但在不同区域和不同阶段存在显著的差异。因此,合理引导地方政府行为以及有效协调财政金融体制改革对于促进地方金融健康发展进而提升区域经济效率具有深远的意义。     

农业部门人力资本水平及其投资效率的研究

本文探讨改革开放30年我国农业部门人力资本及其效率问题,并与非农业部门进行比较。结果表明,农业部门和非农业部门人力资本总量均呈增加趋势,但农业部门人力资本占比呈持续下降趋势;农业部门的人力资本生产率低于非农业部门,全要素生产率在1990年前与非农业部门相近,但此后开始逐渐明显低于非农业部门,并有不断扩大趋势,前者差距的主要原因是人力资本的资本配置比的贡献不同,后者差距的主要是因为劳动力人力资本水平的影响效应不同;进一步考察人力资本重新配置,发现人力资本的自由流动虽然提高了整体效率,但也导致农业部门的发展萎缩。最后,据此提出对策建议。     

Modified BLUEs and BLIEs of the location and scale parameters and the population mean using ranked set sampling

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is a sampling procedure that can be used to improve the cost efficiency of selecting sample units of an experiment or a study. In this paper, RSS is considered for estimating the location and scale parameters a and b>0, as well as the population mean from the family F((x?a)/b). Modified best linear unbiased estimators (BLUEs) and best linear invariant estimators (BLIEs) are considered. Numerical computations with different location-scale distributions and different sample sizes are conducted to assess the efficiency of the suggested estimators. It is found that the modified BLIEs are uniformly higher than that of BLUEs for all distributions considered in this study. The modified BLUE and BLIE are more efficient when the underlying distribution is symmetric.     

On Pitman's measure of closeness of k-records

Pitman closeness of both the upper and lower k-record statistics to the population quantiles of a location–scale family of distributions is studied. For the population median, the Pitman-closest k-record is also determined. In the case of symmetric distributions, the Pitman closeness probabilities of k-record statistics are shown to be distribution-free, and explicit expressions are also derived for these probabilities. Exact expressions are derived for the required probabilities for uniform and exponential distributions. Numerical results are given for these families and also the Pitman-closest k-record is determined.