略论青海与中亚国家的贸易关系

中亚国家独立不久,青海与中亚国家的贸易关系就已展开,然而,至今双方之间的贸易关系仍然在低水平徘徊。分析青海与中亚国家发展贸易的条件,进而积极寻求拓展二者之间贸易关系的对策具有重要意义。     

西方国家起源理论研究述评

国家起源问题一直备受学者关注,特别是20世纪以来,西方学者注重从人类学、考古学、历史学、社会学等各方面入手研究国家起源。从人类学的视角来说,塞维斯和弗里德提出了著名的酋邦理论和分层学说。与此同时,各种具体理论也不断出现,如城市革命、灌溉、贸易和战争。由于单一的因素不能解释国家的产生,因此综合理论应运而生。生态学理论注重利用气象数据并与合理的推测相结合,社会理论则以更具体的权力、意识、个人、性别和团体进行研究,而这些都推动着国家起源理论的发展。     

Developing high-technology latecomer firms to compete internationally: A three-sector growth model

In contrast to the mainstream approach, which focuses exclusively on how foreign multinational enterprises move into developing countries, this paper researches how high-technology latecomer multinational enterprises grow from the domestic institutional context into the international market. It draws on the economic development theory and the dynamic capabilities perspective to present a three-sector growth model to understand how high-technology latecomer firms establish themselves in international competition through the interplay of the social sector, the state, and the market. The three sectors may work together when they are pushed by external threats or pulled by internal interests. High-technology latecomer firms, at the stage of “getting there,” would call for the caring hand of the social sector; at the stage of “staying there,” would need the competition of the market; and between these two stages, the discipline of the state.     

2007年广州亚运新闻报道的四个转变

2007年,关于广州亚运会筹备活动的新闻报道成功实现了四个转变,即聚焦从多哈转向广州,内容从单点转向多点,报道形式由单篇转向专题和专栏,报道的重心则由高层转向公众。2007全年的亚运报道也存在一些不均衡现象,需要在2008年的报道中力求改进。     

Limit theorems for dependent Bernoulli variables with statistical inference

We consider a class of dependent Bernoulli variables where the conditional success probability is a linear combination of the last few trials and the original success probability. We obtain its limit theorems including the strong law of large numbers, weak invariance principle, and law of the iterated logarithm. We also derive some statistical inference results which make the model applicable. Simulation results are exhibited as well to show that with small sample size the convergence rate is satisfying and the proposed estimators behave well.     

Preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil under the inflation targeting regime: Estimation using a DSGE model for a small open economy

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil after the inflation targeting regime (January 2000 to December 2013), using a DSGE model with microeconomic foundations for a small open economy, based especially on the work of Kam et al. (2009). The model used in this study considers that the Central Bank minimizes a loss function, taking into account the deviation of inflation from its target, output stabilization, the interest rate smoothing and, unlike the previous works, the exchange rate. The results show that the major concern of the monetary authority in the period was the stabilization of inflation, followed by interest rate smoothing, exchange stabilization and, finally, output stabilization. The large value for the exchange rate smoothing parameter suggests the presence of fear of floating in the Brazilian case. An improved inflation targeting strategy should allow for less Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market.     

Acculturation and adaptation of first‐ and second‐generation South Asians in Hong Kong

This study investigates the experiences of psychological and sociocultural adaptation among 404 first‐ and second‐generation South Asian immigrants in Hong Kong. Results indicate that for first‐generation immigrants, lack of host language fluency, fewer contacts and friendships with host members, the strategy of marginalisation, and perceived discrimination are all related to higher psychological distress, lower self‐esteem and less competence in sociocultural adaptation. For second‐generation individuals, although they reported higher knowledge of the host language and higher preferences the for assimilation strategy, the levels of psychological distress were higher compared with the first‐generation group. An interesting finding of this study is the preference for the marginalisation strategy as opposed to the assimilation and/or separation strategy. The findings of this study highlight the importance of considering the unique experiences of the second generation in order to further our understanding of immigration and acculturation processes.     

联盟信任变迁与美韩联盟转型

联盟信任与联盟困境之间存在密切关系。在双边不对称联盟中,联盟困境的"抛弃"与"牵连"对联盟信任的作用更为强烈,进而成为推动联盟转型的重要变量。在美韩联盟发展过程中,其联盟信任不断变迁。联盟初期,由战火锤炼铸就的美韩双向情绪性信任,中经"尼克松冲击"转变为情绪性—工具性信任,后冷战时代历经双方的战略调整与实力变迁影响,转为双向工具性信任。受联盟信任变迁的影响,美韩联盟也实现了由军事联盟向战略性联盟的转变,这是联盟信任下降与共有利益拓展的共同结果。     

Gambling motivations and superstitious beliefs: a cross-cultural study with casino customers

The expansion of legalized commercial gaming in Macau has motivated stakeholders to explore opportunities in other Asian countries. However, there is a lack of research focusing on casino customers in these markets. Thus, the purpose of this study is to explore gambling superstitious beliefs and motivations of those visiting a casino in South Korea, and how these factors are different across four ethnic groups. The researchers surveyed 323 casino customers in the lounge area on the casino floor, including Americans, Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans living abroad. This study found American gamblers could be characterized as more superstitious than Japanese gamblers, while the Chinese and American gamblers exhibited many similarities regarding the pattern of superstitious beliefs that they were most likely to endorse. The findings also suggest the culture and the area around the casino might be more important to Chinese, while novelty to Japanese and winning money to Korean gamblers are seen as most important. This study contributes to gambling literature by examining gamblers’ beliefs and motives in a different setting with more diverse populations than those in previous studies. The findings of this study will help casino operators properly develop and adjust strategies to thrive in the Asian marketplace.