亚洲金融危机对中国外债管理的启示

亚洲金融危机发生国,均不同程度存在外债管理的漏洞和失误。作者将其与中国外债进行了对比分析,指出了中国外债管理的主要问题,提出了解决问题的思路。     

Establishing decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment models

ABSTRACT

Traditional credit risk assessment models do not consider the time factor; they only think of whether a customer will default, but not the when to default. The result cannot provide a manager to make the profit-maximum decision. Actually, even if a customer defaults, the financial institution still can gain profit in some conditions. Nowadays, most research applied the Cox proportional hazards model into their credit scoring models, predicting the time when a customer is most likely to default, to solve the credit risk assessment problem. However, in order to fully utilize the fully dynamic capability of the Cox proportional hazards model, time-varying macroeconomic variables are required which involve more advanced data collection. Since short-term default cases are the ones that bring a great loss for a financial institution, instead of predicting when a loan will default, a loan manager is more interested in identifying those applications which may default within a short period of time when approving loan applications. This paper proposes a decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment model to assess the credit risk. The goal is to use the decision tree to filter the short-term default to produce a highly accurate model that could distinguish default lending. This paper integrates bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) with a synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) into the credit risk model to improve the decision tree stability and its performance on unbalanced data. Finally, a real case of small and medium enterprise loan data that has been drawn from a local financial institution located in Taiwan is presented to further illustrate the proposed approach. After comparing the result that was obtained from the proposed approach with the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, it was found that the classifying recall rate and precision rate of the proposed model was obviously superior to the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.     

A Discrete Variable Chain Graph for Applicants for Credit

A bank offering unsecured personal loans may be interested in several related outcome variables, including defaulting on the repayments, early repayment or failing to take up an offered loan. Current predictive models used by banks typically consider such variables individually. However, the fact that they are related to each other, and to many interrelated potential predictor variables, suggests that graphical models may provide an attractive alternative solution. We developed such a model for a data set of 15 variables measured on a set of 14 000 applications for unsecured personal loans. The resulting global model of behaviour enabled us to identify several previously unsuspected relationships of considerable interest to the bank. For example, we discovered important but obscure relationships between taking out insurance, prior delinquency with a credit card and delinquency with the loan.     

高负债视域下的高校财务管理创新

分析了目前高校负债现状及生存发展困境,指出了常规财务管理模式存在的缺位,并针对性地提出了引入权责发生制、进行成本预算管理、建立"多元化"的筹资办学机制、科学优化债务结构、拓展管理空间、建立高校财务风险预警系统等建议,使之形成一套较为完整的科学的财务管理体系,促进高校财务管理由核算型向理财型发展,以尽快改变高校高负债这种较为窘迫的生存发展困境。     

The Prospects for Foreign Debt Sustainability in Post‐Completion‐Point Countries: Implications of the HIPC‐MDRI Framework

The Enhanced HIPC Initiative was launched in 1999 to reduce the Net Present Value (NPV) of foreign debt of the world's poorest countries to a sustainable threshold of 150% of their exports. This article applies a simple growth‐with‐debt model to 16 post‐completion‐point HIPCs to assess whether this goal will be met by 2015. Its somewhat optimistic base‐case projections suggest that participation in the current Enhanced HIPC‐MDRI initiative will only reduce the NPV of their total external debt to 176% of exports by this date. Sensitivity tests which expose these countries to adverse exogenous shocks help draw attention to policies that could ensure that they do not again accumulate unsustainable debt levels.     

使用双线性对构造的智能卡口令认证方案

研究了双线性对在智能卡口令认证方案中的应用;针对Girietal方案在敌手能够获取存储在智能卡中信息的情况下不能抵抗冒充攻击的安全缺陷,提出了一种使用双线性对构造的智能卡口令认证方案。在该方案的登录阶段中只是执行群上的加法运算,没有使用杂凑函数和公钥加解密操作,因而计算代价更低,但却提供了更好的安全性,能够抵抗重放攻击、离线攻击和冒充攻击。     

后农业税时代乡镇债务危机解析——基于对湖南省A市B镇的调查

乡镇债务问题自从1994年推行分税制改革以来逐渐显化,而税费改革的实行使得这一趋势加剧并迅速在全国范围内蔓延开来。因此,通过对湖南省A市B镇的调查,并结合学界的观点,以剖析乡镇债务的产生及其原因并找出化解之策。     

离婚诉讼中一并审理夫妻共同债务质疑

分析人民法院在审判离婚案件时,一并审理夫妻共同债务的法律依据及其积极作用,并从不合法理、可能损害债权人利益、拖延离婚案件的审结时间等五方面提出了质疑。提出将离婚诉讼中确定夫妻共同债务承担的审理与离婚诉讼相分离,必要时作为债务案件单独审理的主张并论证其合理性,由此提出了对现行《婚姻法》第32条的修改建议。     

递阶双因素模型估计信用组合一致性风险

当信用组合内资产个数较少时，基于Gordy提出的粒度调节方法计算的组合风险量度VaR将严重被低估，从而高估一致性风险量度预期短缺ES。本文利用Taylor展开式改进粒度调节方法，提高估计ES的准确性；并且假设行业因素是宏观经济因素的线性函数，由此保证了组合不变性的条件，从而扩展单因素模型为递阶双因素模型，提高相关性估计准确性，解决了单因素模型高估经济资本的问题。模拟结果显示递阶双因素模型的优越性，特别是组合内资产规模较小时，改进的效果更明显。     

东道国主权信用与中国对外直接投资——基于中国与全球ODI国别面板数据的实证比较

基于2003-2012年中国与全球在42国对外直接投资ODI面板数据,分别研究发达与发展中东道国主权信用对中国ODI的影响,并与全球ODI所受影响相比较得出结论：因主权信用下降、遭遇全球ODI流出的发达国家反而越来越吸引中国ODI,对发达地区市场与战略资产的寻求驱动我国企业在此时增持资产;中国与全球ODI均规避主权信用下降的发展中国家, 我国企业也并不偏好主权信用下降的自然资源丰富国。