我国乡镇政府改革的方向、困境与着力点

后农业税时代,我国乡镇政府改革势在必行。不过,改革究竟走向何方,学界分歧颇大,大致提出了乡镇政府改革的两种思路：“强化论”和“取消论”。但当前我国乡镇政府改革的“强化论”扣“取消论”都没有实践根基,可行的路径应该是立足于现实困境分析,渐进式地构建有效供给农村基本公共品的服务型乡镇政府。     

A Note on High-Dimensional Linear Regression With Interactions

The problem of interaction selection in high-dimensional data analysis has recently received much attention. This note aims to address and clarify several fundamental issues in interaction selection for linear regression models, especially when the input dimension p is much larger than the sample size n. We first discuss how to give a formal definition of “importance” for main and interaction effects. Then we focus on two-stage methods, which are computationally attractive for high-dimensional data analysis but thus far have been regarded as heuristic. We revisit the counterexample of Turlach and provide new insight to justify two-stage methods from the theoretical perspective. In the end, we suggest new strategies for interaction selection under the marginality principle and provide some simulation results.     

An integrative model of leadership behavior

Decades of questionnaire and interview studies have revealed various leadership behaviors observed in successful leaders. However, little is known about the actual behaviors that cause those observations. Given that lay observers are prone to cognitive biases, such as the halo effect, the validity of theories that are exclusively based on observed behaviors is questionable. We thus follow the call of leading scientists in the field and derive a parsimonious model of leadership behavior that is informed by established psychological theories. Building on the taxonomy of Yukl (2012), we propose three task-oriented behavior categories (enhancing understanding, strengthening motivation and facilitating implementation) and three relation-oriented behavior categories (fostering coordination, promoting cooperation and activating resources), each of which is further specified by a number of distinct behaviors. While the task-oriented behaviors are directed towards the accomplishment of shared objectives, the relation-oriented behaviors support this process by increasing the coordinated engagement of the team members. Our model contributes to the advancement of leadership behavior theory by (1) consolidating current taxonomies, (2) sharpening behavioral concepts of leadership behavior, (3) specifying precise relationships between those categories and (4) spurring new hypotheses that can be derived from existing findings in the field of psychology. To test our model as well as the hypotheses derived from this model, we advocate the development of new measurements that overcome the limitations associated with questionnaire and interview studies.     

“微全球化”现象与中国青年

由于计算机网络等通讯媒体的广泛使用以及经济的全球化,人们的社会交往模式发生了革命性的变化,即突破国家的界限,形成了以个体为核心的全球性的社会交往模式。“微全球化”研究是一种基于微观视野的全球化研究．其一般模式和共同特点是把个人层面上涉及跨国界和跨文化的行为、交往、关系等方面的变化作为其研究的切入点,并进而把握某种跨国界和跨文化的行为、交往、关系。“微全球化”现象泛见于与青年群体相关的各种活动和事件中,对青年的发展具有积极的推动作用。     

浅析《爱弥儿》中的青年社会交往观

卢梭在《爱弥儿》一书中,通过对青年爱弥儿的道德教育的论述表达了他关于青年社会交往的观点。《爱弥儿》中的青年交往观主要包括青年社会交往的必要性、青年社会交往的基本原则以及青年在社会交往中的具体行为表现等内容。卢梭的青年社会交往观以自然主义教育思想为基础,虽然带有一定的空想性,且主要针对的是18世纪的法国社会现实,有其时代局限性,但对于现代青年社会交往仍具有重要启示意义,特别是青年参与社会交往必须遵循一定的原则,青年社会交往应讲求一定的艺术和方法等观点值得加以借鉴和参考,使其对现代青年社会交往发挥指导作用。     

“90后”大学生网络信任建构过程研究

网络信任是随着网络时代的来临而出现的新的信任类型,是网络社交发展到一定阶段的后天产物。其发生主体是切实的社会个体在网络空间形塑的虚拟角色,发生情境是个体互动所处的具体网络空间,其建构过程大致经历了初建、维系与深化、破裂、走向现实几个阶段。网络信任的建构过程不断涉及个人的认知与判断,信任决定的修正依据是个体在网络社交过程中逐渐暴露出的信息。网络信任的发生概率非常低,仅极少数的信任获得了稳定发展,甚至转变为现实信任。     

现代金融学理论的缺陷与解决路径

标准金融学与行为金融学的根本分歧是市场是否具有有效性。作为标准金融学基石的有效市场假说的致命缺陷是检验时点有效,即在任何一个时点上证券价格都即时、准确地反映所有信息,这一理想化的约束条件不仅使该理论的应用价值大打折扣,也使其存在着巨大的理论缺陷。行为金融学正是抓住这一点对其提出了质疑和挑战。在推翻标准金融学的理论假设后的行为金融学也没有建立一个比标准金融学更有实际应用性的学说体系,其应用性甚至远远落后于被其否定的以CAPM、APT、OPT等为代表的标准金融学理论。市场有效周期理论认为,市场有效是一个时期而不是一个时点,通过实证研究可以对该理论进行检验。市场有效周期理论的重要价值主要是在解决标准金融学和行为金融学的分歧上实现了重大突破。     

中日韩老年人互动方案研究

人口老龄化究竟是挑战还是机遇，关键在于如何充分利用老年人力资源，推动老有所为，实现积极老龄化。参与社会，扩大交流是中日韩三国老年人的共同要求。要充分认识到当前中日韩民间交流中的老年人的作用，切实推进老年人的文化交流与民间往来。中日韩三国积极老龄化的成功经验和有效做法具有相互学习和借鉴的价值，三国在应对人口老龄化领域有着广阔的合作空间和前景。中日韩三国应长期、积极地开展交流与合作。     

De-aliasing effects using semifoldover techniques

Semifoldover designs, obtained by semifolding a regular two-level factorial design, have been discussed recently in the literature. In this article, with the use of indicator functions, we investigate various semifoldover designs that are obtained from a general two-level factorial design. We discuss when a main factor or a two-factor interaction can be de-aliased from their aliased two-factor interactions, and extend some of the existing results from regular designs to non-regular designs. Finally, we present some examples to illustrate the results developed here.