从刑律到民法:“现行律民事有效部分”生成考论

研究源自《大清现行刑律》的“现行律民事有效部分”何以能够作为民初民事审判的主要依据。分析认为,《大清现行刑律》的内容、结构和在清末的实施是重要铺垫,民初政治和法制环境造成的民事审判法源的缺失是客观使然,深层原因是当时中国社会的经济、社会基础没有根本改变;经过立法与司法“合力作用”下的“现行律民事有效部分”,它的适用促使完整意义上的民法近代化进一步推进,虽为过渡之用,却构成了民法近代化历程中古今中外民法交汇的“枢纽”。     

A Note on Sufficient Conditions for Valid Unmodified t Testing in Correlation Analysis with Autocorrelated and Heteroscedastic Sample Data

Traditionally, sphericity (i.e., independence and homoscedasticity for raw data) is put forward as the condition to be satisfied by the variance–covariance matrix of at least one of the two observation vectors analyzed for correlation, for the unmodified t test of significance to be valid under the Gaussian and constant population mean assumptions. In this article, the author proves that the sphericity condition is too strong and a weaker (i.e., more general) sufficient condition for valid unmodified t testing in correlation analysis is circularity (i.e., independence and homoscedasticity after linear transformation by orthonormal contrasts), to be satisfied by the variance–covariance matrix of one of the two observation vectors. Two other conditions (i.e., compound symmetry for one of the two observation vectors; absence of correlation between the components of one observation vector, combined with a particular pattern of joint heteroscedasticity in the two observation vectors) are also considered and discussed. When both observation vectors possess the same variance–covariance matrix up to a positive multiplicative constant, the circularity condition is shown to be necessary and sufficient. “Observation vectors” may designate partial realizations of temporal or spatial stochastic processes as well as profile vectors of repeated measures. From the proof, it follows that an effective sample size appropriately defined can measure the discrepancy from the more general sufficient condition for valid unmodified t testing in correlation analysis with autocorrelated and heteroscedastic sample data. The proof is complemented by a simulation study. Finally, the differences between the role of the circularity condition in the correlation analysis and its role in the repeated measures ANOVA (i.e., where it was first introduced) are scrutinized, and the link between the circular variance–covariance structure and the centering of observations with respect to the sample mean is emphasized.     

Relationships Between Full and Layer Models with Applications to Level Merging

Analysis of a large dimensional contingency table is quite involved. Models corresponding to layers of a contingency table are easier to analyze than the full model. Relationships between the interaction parameters of the full log-linear model and that of its corresponding layer models are obtained. These relationships are not only useful to reduce the analysis but also useful to interpret various hierarchical models. We obtain these relationships for layers of one variable, and extend the results for the case when layers of more than one variable are considered. We also establish, under conditional independence, relationships between the interaction parameters of the full model and that of the corresponding marginal models. We discuss the concept of merging of factor levels based on these interaction parameters. Finally, we use the relationships between layer models and full model to obtain conditions for level merging based on layer interaction parameters. Several examples are discussed to illustrate the results.     

Starting Values for EM Estimation of Latent Class Joint Model

Latent class model is one of the important latent variable methods for joint modeling longitudinal and survival data. Latent class joint model can handle underlying heterogeneous population, discover subpopulation structure, and incorporate correlated non normally distributed outcomes. The maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in latent class joint model are generally obtained by the EM algorithm. Finding the starting values is one of the major issues to implement the EM algorithm successfully. In this article, initial value formulas are provided, a simulation study is conducted to show that the proposed starting values perform very well, and two illustrative examples are presented.     

Confidence Intervals for Survival Probabilities: A Comparison Study

The confidence interval of the Kaplan–Meier estimate of the survival probability at a fixed time point is often constructed by the Greenwood formula. This normal approximation-based method can be looked as a Wald type confidence interval for a binomial proportion, the survival probability, using the “effective” sample size defined by Cutler and Ederer. Wald-type binomial confidence interval has been shown to perform poorly comparing to other methods. We choose three methods of binomial confidence intervals for the construction of confidence interval for survival probability: Wilson's method, Agresti–Coull's method, and higher-order asymptotic likelihood method. The methods of “effective” sample size proposed by Peto et al. and Dorey and Korn are also considered. The Greenwood formula is far from satisfactory, while confidence intervals based on the three methods of binomial proportion using Cutler and Ederer's “effective” sample size have much better performance.     

供应商参与新产品开发对企业自主创新能力的影响研究

本文以装备制造企业为实证研究对象,探讨了供应商参与新产品开发对企业自主创新能力的影响关系.同时,构建了包括供应商参与新产品开发、关系互动、知识创造、企业自主创新能力四个变量的概念模型,并提出相应的理论假设.通过结构方程模型的检验,表明供应商参与新产品开发对关系互动和知识创造均有显著的正向影响,进而通过两者对企业自主创新能力有显著正向影响.     

基于有效治理的复合民主:中国民主成长的可能方式

既要顺应民主的潮流,落实民主的普适价值,又要切实应对巨型国家治理的种种现实难题,政治发展的特殊境遇,决定了有效治理乃是中国民主政治建设合乎逻辑的现实目标和基本准则.基于有效治理的民主实践不会拘泥于现有的民主制度形式,而很可能会在长期的试错性探索过程中,将各种有效的民主实现形式吸纳和整合到国家治理过程之中,形成一种复合型的民主政治体系.     

创建有效的学校文化提高学校效能

本文在解析有效学校文化结构的基础上,提出了创建有效学校文化的＂DIEP＂路径模式,并从建设精神文化、制度与行为文化和物质文化三个方面提出了相应的策略。     

Effects of Information Sequence and Irrelevant Distractor Information When Using a Computer‐based Decision Aid*

Computer‐based decision aids are intended to support and improve human judgments. Frequently, the largest portion of the design effort is devoted to the technical aspects of the system; behavioral aspects are often overlooked. As a result, the decision aid may be ineffective. An experiment was conducted to examine the effects of two information structure variables that theoretically affect judgments: information sequence and irrelevant distractor information. Auditor subjects made continuing existence judgments for client‐banks after interacting with one of four alternative decision aids. The decision aids are modifications of a system developed by an international CPA firm. Judgments were predicted to be more accurate when: (1) diagnostic information is presented late rather than early in the information sequence and (2) when no irrelevant distractor information is presented. Further, judgment confidence was predicted to be unrelated to either information sequence or irrelevant distractor information. The experimental data support all three predictions.     

广西人口与经济发展的互动分析

人口与经济的发展有着作用与反作用的关系。总体上,广西处于经济快速增长和人口低速稳定增长的态势。具体来说,广西经济的发展和人口增长具有一定的同步性,但它们之间并不是简单的线性关系;广西人口文化素质水平有了显著提高,对经济发展的推进作用也较为明显;广西人口年龄结构属于成年型,抚养系数较低,处于经济发展的“黄金时代”;广西的第一、三产业的劳动生产率相对较低,第二产业的劳动生产率相对较高,人口产业结构的变动相对滞后于GDP产业结构的变动;广西城镇化水平较低,已成为广西国民经济和社会持续发展的主要障碍因素之一。