校企联动构建《小组工作》的体验式学习法——《小组工作》本土化教学模式的探讨

社会工作强调学生的实务操作能力,小组工作方法是社会工作三大直接工作方法之一,在社工领域得到广泛的运用。本文从社会工作教育现状出发,结合上海社会工作资源,试图以《小组工作》为例构建学校与社工机构联动、启发学生体验式学习的模式,以期增强学生的自我赋权。     

族际互动下族群关系的调查研究——以宁夏回族自治区灵武市宁东镇回汉关系为例

随着全球化与现代化进程加快,族际间的互动正变得十分频繁。作为宁夏的工业开发区,宁东地区的族群关系有其突出的特点。以宁夏回族自治区灵武市宁东镇的回汉关系为个案,对族群关系进行调查研究,旨在了解该地族际互动下的族群关系。从民族社会学角度看,研究族际互动下的族群关系,就不得不提到族际通婚、族际迁移、族际冲突等诸多问题。     

壮族与客家的文化互动与融合

随着壮族与客家交往的增多,两者之间的文化互动越来越普遍,在语言、风俗习惯、宗教信仰等方面均相互包容,甚至相互吸收。在壮族与客家杂居地区,两者已经出现了文化上的融合,而且这种融合不是单方面的,而是"你中有我,我中有你",壮族的客家化与客家人的壮化同时并存。     

Examples of Differing Weighted and Unweighted Estimates from a Sample Survey

Unweighted estimators using data collected in a sample survey can be badly biased, whereas weighted estimators are approximately unbiased for population parameters. We present four examples using data from the 1988 National Maternal and Infant Health Survey to demonstrate that weighted and unweighted estimators can be quite different, and to show the underlying causes of such differences.     

人民币与国外主要货币的尾部相依和联动

文章选择1994年1月到2014年11月的人民币、美元、英镑、日元、欧元和港币等六种货币实际有效汇率的月度数据,首先采用AR-GARCH-t过程对收益率进行过滤,然后运用规则藤Copula函数对标准化残差序列进行建模,探讨人民币“第一次汇改”前后六种汇率之间的波动溢出效应,研究汇率之间的尾部相依和联动现象。研究发现：“第一次汇改”前后,人民币与其它五种货币实际有效汇率之间的相依结构发生了变化,且联动中的主导货币也由美元变为以人民币,但仍可用同一类型的规则藤Copula结构来描述;人民币与其它货币之间都存在对称的或非对称的尾部相依,其中人民币与日元之间存在对称的负尾部相依,而与欧元之间则存在负的上尾部相依。“第一次汇改”后,人民币与美元实际有效汇率之间正的尾部相依程度有所增加,且相依性最大,而港币与美元之间正的尾部相依性有较大幅度的下降。此外,人民币与日元之间负的尾部相依关系也有较大幅度的下降。     

Data-driven smooth test for a location-scale family

A combination of a smooth test statistic and (an approximate) Schwarz's selection rule has been proposed by Inglot, T., Kallenberg, W. C. M. and Ledwina, T. ((1997). Data-driven smooth tests for composite hypotheses. Ann. Statist. 25, 1222–1250) as a solution of a standard goodness-of-fit problem when nuisance parameters are present. In the present paper we modify the above solution in the sense that we propose another analogue of Schwarz's rule and rederive properties of it and the resulting test statistic. To avoid technicalities we restrict our attention to location-scale family and method of moments estimators of its parameters. In a parallel paper [Janic-Wróblewska, A. (2004). Data-driven smooth tests for the extreme value distribution. Statistics, in press] we illustrate an application of our solution and advantages of modification when testing of fit to extreme value distribution.     

Adaptive Order Determination for Constructing Time Series Forecasting Models

In time series modeling consistent criteria like Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) outperform in terms of predictability loss-efficient criteria like Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) when data are generated by a finite-order autoregressive process, and the reverse is true when data are generated by an infinite-order autoregressive process. Since in practice we don’t know the data-generating process, it is useful to have an adaptive criterion that behaves as either a consistent or just as a loss-efficient criterion, whichever performs better. Here we derive such a criterion. Moreover, our criterion is adaptive to effective sample sizes and not sensitive to maximum a priori determined order limits.     

A Note on Multiple Regression for Single Index Model

Abstract

A simple method based on sliced inverse regression (SIR) is proposed to explore an effective dimension reduction (EDR) vector for the single index model. We avoid the principle component analysis step of the original SIR by using two sample mean vectors in two slices of the response variable and their difference vector. The theories become simpler, the method is equivalent to the multiple linear regression with dichotomized response, and the estimator can be expressed by a closed form, although the objective function might be an unknown nonlinear. It can be applied for the case when the number of covariates is large, and it requires no matrix operation or iterative calculation.     

Simultaneous estimation of poisson means under exchangeable and independence models

Consider two problems: (1) the simultaneous estimation of a number of Poisson parameters when the parameters are believed a priori to be exchangeable and (2) the simultaneous estimation of Poisson parameters in a two-way contingency table where the classification variables are believed independent. By the use of hierarchical prior distributions, simple new point and interval estimates are proposed for the parameters of interest. The methods are applied on home run data of Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio.