Likelihood and higher-order approximations to tail areas: A review and annotated bibliography

Recent developments in higher-order asymptotic theory for statistical inference have emphasized the fundamental role of the likelihood function in providing accurate approximations to cumulative distribution functions. This paper summarizes the main results, with an emphasis on classes of problems for which relatively easily implemented solutions exist. A survey of the literature indicates the large number of problems solved and solvable by this method. Generalizations and extensions, with suggestions for further development, are considered.     

扩招形势下教书育人工作的几点认识与体会

本文中,作者简要分析了扩招形势下加强教书育人工作的重要性,并就教书育人工作的几个主要 方面谈了自己的认识和体会。     

海权、霸权与英帝国(1688～1815)

英国在1688~1815的一百多年时间里,由一个一般的民族国家发展成为世界强国、海上霸主、殖民帝国,究其原因,海军与海权对英国这一阶段的发展起到了极其重要的作用。英国历届政府坚持把赢得制海权作为战略目标,把海权与海外贸易和殖民扩张三者有机地结合起来。三者紧密结合、相互促进,成为英帝国强大、繁荣的重要基石,也是英国在同西班牙、荷兰、法国争夺海上霸权的斗争中立于不败之地的关键。     

Quantifying Potential Health Impacts of Cadmium in Cigarettes on Smoker Risk of Lung Cancer: A Portfolio-of-Mechanisms Approach

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.     

耐热日用陶瓷坯体及其低热膨胀性

阐明了高档锂质耐热日用陶瓷研究的目的和意义,通过实验研究获得了具有良好抗热震性能的锂质耐热陶瓷材料,对材料的显微结构和主要物理性能分别进行了分析和测定,并对其低热膨胀性进行了深入研究.     

Confidence Intervals Based on Local Linear Smoother

Point-wise confidence intervals for a non-parametric regression function in conjunction with the popular local linear smoother are considered. The confidence intervals are based on the asymptotic normal distribution of the local linear smoother. Their coverage accuracy is evaluated by developing Edgeworth expansion for the coverage probability. It is found that the coverage error near the boundary of the support of the regression function is of a larger order than that in the interior, which implies that the local linear smoother is not adaptive to the boundary in terms of coverage. This is quite unexpected as the local linear smoother is adaptive to the boundary in terms of the mean squared error.     

经济不发达地区多系统图书馆协调发展模式初探

多系统图书馆协调发展的前提是建立在一种利益均衡机制上的横向联合，针对不同地区的经济发展状况而呈现出多种表象，如何把握本地区多系统图书馆之间的利益均衡，需要建立哪些激励机制和运转机制，同协调之后所要达到的预期效果密切相关。     

求解SEM极点的Kuhn法

在研究瞬变电磁场的奇点展开法中,散射物体的自然频率(极点)是一个非常重要的参数。以往人们都用迭代法或围线和分法计算物体的自然频率。本文采用Kuhn法,在不需任何初值假设的情况下,用不多的计算时间求出了精度很好的细线导体的极点。     

农业科技成果转化为现实生产力的对策

根据目前影响我国农业技术成果迅速转化为现实生产力的因素,提出了加速农业技术成果转化的对策。     

A note on the joint distribution of correlated quadratic forms

In the present paper, the authors obtained exact and asymptotic expressions for the joint distribution of correlated quadratic forms when the underlying distribution is a multivariate normal.