我国村级公共品需求偏好表达机制的构建

村级公共品的特殊性质决定了村民有参与公共品供给决策的可能性,但我国村级公共品“自上而下”的供给体制忽视了广大农民对公共品的实际需求,使村民参与公共品供给决策成为不可能。为破解这一现实困境,就要从农民的实际需求出发,构建村级公共产品的需求偏好表达机制,而加快基层民主建设、改变基层干部的产生办法与绩效考核办法、深化土地制度与户籍制度改革以及推行村级公共品投资主体多元化是构建村级公共品需求偏好表达机制的现实路径选择。     

国企下岗职工生活保障金来源研究——可计算一般均衡分析

中国目前有相当多的国有企业下岗职工,如果不能筹集到足够的资金保证其基本生活,将影响到国有企业改革的成功和社会的安定,本文利用计算一般均衡模型分析此资金在政府、国有企业和非国有企业之间的合理分配及其对经济系统的影响。哪一方负担的多此,哪一方负担的少一些,取决于政府在未来经济增长、当期居民福利、政府财政赤字、GNP以及部门产出、部门价格之间的取舍。     

对偶婚姻的均衡分析

通过动物繁殖和生存的经济学均衡分析后认为 ,繁殖和生存的边际产品转换率MRT♀♂ 在不同动物种群和同一种群不同动物个体的变化 ,可形成一妻多夫、一夫多妻和一夫一妻 3种形式的对偶婚姻。人类不同形式的对偶婚姻不仅仅是一种生物学上的适应 (本能 ) ,而且也是一种文化上的适应(智能 ) ,也和动物婚姻一样符合经济规律。     

基于信号博弈的企业并购交易行为分析

企业并购是并购交易双方在追求各自利益最大化的前提下所进行的信号博弈过程。并购交易信号博弈分析表明,由于企业并购交易市场的信息不对称性和不完美性,企业并购交易将会出现市场完全成功、部分成功、接近失败和完全失败四种不同性质和效率的市场均衡,其中只有市场完全成功是最理想和有效率的均衡。但在具体的企业并购交易中出现哪种均衡,主要取决于企业并购交易博弈模型中不同质量目标企业的价值、交易价格、风险成本和质量高、低比例之间的相互关系。减少出现上述三种低效率均衡机会的最有效方法是克服企业并购交易市场的信息不对称性问题,并提高并购企业的识别能力。     

考试作弊行为的经济博弈分析

目前,考试仍是一种最为重要的评估教师教学、检测学生学习状况的手段。然而,作弊行为的大量存在不但降低了这种评估检测的准确性和公正性,而且对学生良好品德的培养形成也产生了不良影响。监督控制考生的作弊行为成为当前教育管理工作的重要任务。笔者从经济博弈的角度分析了考试作弊行为,通过对模型的建立和推导得出一个混合策略纳什均衡,并通过对策略空间(即考生作弊空间和监考教师监考有力空间)的分析,提出一些控制和减少这种行为的合理建议。文中的博弈模型可以看作是对各种监管问题简单的理论抽象,对很多涉及监管的经济问题具有一定的借鉴作用。     

双重价格机制下经济系统的运行研究

本文研究双重价格机制下经济系统的运行,建立了混合经济的价值理论,证明了竞争均衡的存在性,这一研究对于理解混合经济系统的运行有重要的意义。     

信息透明度对B2B交易场作用的博弈分析

传统理论认为,低的信息透明度不利于买卖双方之间达成交易,无法实现资源在市场中的最优化配置,而提高信息的透明度将有利于改变这一局面。本文通过博弈论方法分析低信息透明度和高信息透明度分别对传统交易场和B2B交易场的负面影响作用,认为,高信息透明度对于在线交易并非完全是一件有益之事。在此基础上,本文提出了降低高信息透明度负面影响作用的方法。     

Reinforcement‐based vs. Belief‐based Learning Models in Experimental Asymmetric‐information Games

This paper examines the abilities of learning models to describe subject behavior in experiments. A new experiment involving multistage asymmetric‐information games is conducted, and the experimental data are compared with the predictions of Nash equilibrium and two types of learning model: a reinforcement‐based model similar to that used by Roth and Erev (1995), and belief‐based models similar to the ‘cautious fictitious play’ of Fudenberg and Levine (1995, 1998) These models make predictions that are qualitatively similar cycling around the Nash equilibrium that is much more apparent than movement toward it. While subject behavior is not adequately described by Nash equilibrium, it is consistent with the qualitative predictions of the learning models. We examine several criteria for quantitatively comparing the predictions of alternative models. According to almost all of these criteria, both types of learning model outperform Nash equilibrium. According to some criteria, the reinforcement‐based model performs better than any version of the belief‐based model; according to others, there exist versions of the belief‐based model that outperform the reinforcement‐based model. The abilities of these models are further tested with respect to the results of other published experiments. The relative performance of the two learning models depends on the experiment, and varies according to which criterion of success is used. Again, both models perform better than equilibrium in most cases.     

Product Positioning and Pricing Under Production Cost Considerations*

A framework in a competitive environment is proposed that incorporates production cost and economies of scale in the problem of positioning a product for a market segment. The model facilitates the existence of a Nash equilibrium in prices and product positions. As such, firms can simultaneously choose prices and product positions for the segment. This result improves the traditional theory on equilibria points in prices and product positions where firms choose their product positions first and then set their prices. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the effects of changes in the unit savings derived from economies of scale or the cost of furnishing a product with its attributes by one firm on the product positions, prices, and profits of all competing firms. More important, the paper examines the effect on prices and profits of competing firms when one of the firms repositions its product closer to the segment's ideal point. It is shown that under certain conditions, the profit of a firm may actually decrease as it redesigns its product closer to the segment's ideal point. These conditions assist management to identify the product design beyond which enhancements of the product would lead to lower profits because of increasing production costs. It is also shown that the price of this firm increases. Past research supports the idea that positioning a brand closer to the ideal point, given fixed product positions of competing firms, would lead to greater buyer preferences and eventually higher profits. The price and profits of the competing firm may increase or decrease. Conditions are derived under which a movement towards the segment's ideal point by one firm would lead to higher profits by the competing firm.     

人民币均衡汇率决定机制及其影响因素的作用分析——基于行为均衡汇率估算模型分析技术改进的研究

 本文首先对经典行为均衡汇率模型简要解读。指出其在估算实践中,暗含技术上的严格假定。本文给出放松假定的改进。通过人民币均衡汇率估算的经验分析,对改进工作进行检验。为人民币均衡汇率估算研究搭建一个深入分析的技术平台。经验分析的主要结论是,人民币实际汇率短期存在低估,但与长期均衡汇率比较,其实际汇率一直存在高估的情况。鉴于均衡汇率水平的决定机制复杂,人民币汇率水平升值调整必须慎之又慎。