区域主导产业评价指标与数学模型

以现有研究成果为基础,建立了区域主导产业评价指标体系;基于灰色聚类的思想,提出了评价区域主导产业优度的数学模型-定权聚类评估模型,并对河南省武陟县工业主导产业选择进行了实证研究。     

Using quantile averages in matched observational studies

In two observational studies, one investigating the effects of minimum wage laws on employment and the other of the effects of exposures to lead, an estimated treatment effect's sensitivity to hidden bias is examined. The estimate uses the combined quantile averages that were introduced in 1981 by B. M. Brown as simple, efficient, robust estimates of location admitting both exact and approximate confidence intervals and significance tests. Closely related to Gastwirth's estimate and Tukey's trimean, the combined quantile average has asymptotic efficiency for normal data that is comparable with that of a 15% trimmed mean, and higher efficiency than the trimean, but it has resistance to extreme observations or breakdown comparable with that of the trimean and better than the 15% trimmed mean. Combined quantile averages provide consistent estimates of an additive treatment effect in a matched randomized experiment. Sensitivity analyses are discussed for combined quantile averages when used in a matched observational study in which treatments are not randomly assigned. In a sensitivity analysis in an observational study, subjects are assumed to differ with respect to an unobserved covariate that was not adequately controlled by the matching, so that treatments are assigned within pairs with probabilities that are unequal and unknown. The sensitivity analysis proposed here uses significance levels, point estimates and confidence intervals based on combined quantile averages and examines how these inferences change under a range of assumptions about biases due to an unobserved covariate. The procedures are applied in the studies of minimum wage laws and exposures to lead. The first example is also used to illustrate sensitivity analysis with an instrumental variable.     

The zero-inflated Poisson model and the decayed, missing and filled teeth index in dental epidemiology

For frequency counts, the situation of extra zeros often arises in biomedical applications. This is demonstrated with count data from a dental epidemiological study in Belo Horizonte (the Belo Horizonte caries prevention study) which evaluated various programmes for reducing caries. Extra zeros, however, violate the variance–mean relationship of the Poisson error structure. This extra-Poisson variation can easily be explained by a special mixture model, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. On the basis of the ZIP model, a graphical device is presented which not only summarizes the mixing distribution but also provides visual information about the overall mean. This device can be exploited to evaluate and compare various groups. Ways are discussed to include covariates and to develop an extension of the conventional Poisson regression. Finally, a method to evaluate intervention effects on the basis of the ZIP regression model is described and applied to the data of the Belo Horizonte caries prevention study.     

Non-parametric estimation of the long-range dependence exponent for Gaussian processes

We consider a class of long-range-dependent Gaussian processes defined in a semiparametric framework. We propose a new estimator of the long-range dependence parameter, based on the integration of the periodogram in two windows. We show that it is asymptotically Gaussian and calculate the rate of convergence. We optimise parameters defining the window function for the minimum mean-square-error criterion. In a Monte-Carlo study, we compare the proposed estimator with previously studied estimators.     

Open spaces for dialogue promoting mental health as a social work education methodology

ABSTRACT

The authors discuss service user involvement as a key approach regarding training of social workers. In many European Union countries this is a stable practice with a lengthy tradition in research and application. However, in Poland it is almost entirely absent and marginalized. This article presents the results of a participatory action research project conducted at the Institute of Sociology of the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, the objective of which was to identify and critically analyze the key substantive and formal aspects of training of social workers with the participation of individuals with experience of mental illness. This research project adopted an open approach to cognizing reality based on qualitative co-participatory methods. In the conclusion, the authors emphasize that the fundamental criterion for the success of this particular form of training is voluntary and differentiated participation of students—both in the role of people sharing their own experience and as learners—as well as shaping a culture of open dialogue, educational alliances of recognition and recovery, the foundation of which is axiological experience.     

浅议英语学习中的文化差异

东西方文化存在着很大的差异,对西方文化不了解,势必造成英语学习的障碍乃至交际的失误。     

辽朝西京地区官学教育发展探析

在"尊孔崇儒"文教政策的影响下,辽朝西京地区官学教育取得了较大发展。首先,是西京地区建立起以西京学、州学、县学为核心的官学教育体系。在官学的带动下,私学教育也获得了长足发展。其次,是在西京地区培养出一批名臣儒士,在辽朝社会生活中发挥了重要作用。西京地区官学教育的发展,使得居住于西京地区的汉、契丹等族能够大规模、系统地接受中原儒家经史教育,使北方游牧民族对中原儒家文化的逐渐认同产生了重要影响。     

他山之石--西方学界对中国回族伊斯兰教的研究述评

本文在阅读原著的基础上,回顾了自19世纪下半期以来西方学者尤其是英美学者对中国回族伊斯兰教进行研究的标志性作品,并试图对其内容、方法和观点进行扼要的评述,以观照当前国内正在兴起的回族学研究.     

董作宾:乡土研究的先驱

20世纪中国民间文艺学史上存在过多种流派 ,如歌谣研究会、文学人类学派、社会—民族学派、“古史辨”派神话学、民俗学派、俗文学学派、延安学派等。作为第一个流派的歌谣研究会 ,是一个颇松散的团体和流派 ,其中持乡土研究观点的学者 ,如顾颉刚、常惠、董作宾、台静农、钟敬文、罗香林、白启明、刘经等 ,在歌谣研究会流派中占主流地位。本文以董作宾的《看见她》母题研究及其他研究为个例 ,阐明乡土研究思潮是 2 0世纪中国现代民间文艺学的最早的一种研究思潮 ,董作宾 (以及顾颉刚等 )在实践和理论上的成就 ,奠定了中国民间文艺学作为一个独立的人文学科的最初的理论基础。本文从 (1)“母题”的引入和比较研究的实践 ,(2 )家乡歌谣学应时而生 ,(3)考订与考订者 ,(4)综合研究模式的尝试四个方面 ,对董作宾的民间文艺学思想遗产和历史地位作历史的考察。     

提高民族学生英语发音的方法

提高学生的英语语音发音对提高民族学生的英语整体水平起着不容质疑的基石作用。本文就如何开展该方面的教学、培养学生的学习兴趣及学习技巧提出一些浅显的建议。