Value provided by interfamily economic exchange of goods and services in two cultures

The value of goods and services provided through interfamily economic exchange is examined from a household survey. The existence of an exchange system in society was documented. Over half of the respondents reported that economic transfers between families were important to the quality of their life. Estimated values varied with personal health conditions, importance attached to providing goods and services, years of residence in the community, primary recipient of services, ethnic culture, sex of respondent, and type of service provided. Estimated values can be used for calculating economic loss in community disruption and relocation, measuring family full income, and estimating the importance of nonmarket economic activity in society.The study contributes to interregional Agricultural Experiment Station Research Project NC-128 Quality of Life as Affected by Area of Residence. Cooperating States: Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and Texas.Dr. Williams is an Associate Professor in the Department of Consumer Sciences and Retailing, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907. Her Ph.D. was received from Purdue in Family Economics and Management. Current research areas are income adequacy, economic security, financial problems, and financial counseling.     

Economic performance under different monetary policy frameworks

We examine the economic performance (inflation and growth) associated with different monetary policy frameworks, presenting unconditional and conditional analyses, and using predictions of countries’ monetary policy framework choices to address the issue of endogeneity. We find some differences in performance associated with the different monetary policy frameworks, together with a general improvement over time which is explained in part by the trends towards inflation targeting and more precise monetary control, that is from changes in the choice of framework, but in part, and perhaps more strongly, reflects a more general trend towards better economic performance related to changes in decision-making within the frameworks. Our results suggest that the choice of MPF is an important, but by no means the only, determinant of economic performance, and therefore not the only consideration for policymakers looking to improve economic performance.     

An enhanced absorbing Markov chain model for predicting TAIEX Index Futures

This study introduces an enhanced absorbing Markov chain model for predicting Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index Futures (TAIEX Futures) trends. Data were gathered from the U.S. TAIEX Futures Yahoo portal site and converted into a regular Markov chain model. A regular Markov chain enables long-term behavioral predictions to be made with regard to the probability of TAIEX Futures. This paper also demonstrates an artificial variable technique for establishing an enhanced absorbing Markov chain model for determining how long TAIEX Futures will increase before prices begin to fall. The results show that the TAIEX Futures absorbing Markov chain can warn investors about the least number of days on average that a particular TAIEX Futures that increased or decreased that day will increase before its price begins to fall.     

唐宋时期中阿交往及其历史意义与当代价值

公元7世纪到13世纪，中阿两大文明同处于世界文明的顶端。在长达数百年间，中阿双方在政治、经济、文化各领域的频繁交往，有力地促进了中华文明和阿拉伯—伊斯兰文明两大不同文明的繁荣和发展。唐宋时期中阿文明的交往，不仅在中阿关系史和人类文明交流史上具有重要的历史意义，而且具有弥足珍贵的当代价值。这种交往对今天中阿关系的进一步发展及对世界不同文明之间的对话与交流都有可资借鉴的启示。     

One-shot exchange networks and the shadow of the future

From the Prisoner's Dilemma and other games, it is well known that strategy selection in one-shot games can be very different from that in iterated games. Because exchange structures were studied only as iterated games, whether one-shot structures differ was not known. Nor have exchange theories previously considered whether events in structures would be different if studied as one-shot games. This paper offers new theory to predict one-shot exchange structures and one-shot experiments to test that theory. As predicted, the experiments found that processes and outcomes of one-shot exchange structures are quite different from those of iterated exchange structures. For example, certain relations that are strategically used as threats in iterated exchange structures occur very rarely in one-shot structures. It follows that power differences in one-shot structures regress from those observed for repeated structures.     

基于Markov链的人民币汇率分析与预测

选取2006年5月25日--2007年5月25日人民币兑欧元的50个周汇率数据，通过建立Markov链模型对人民币汇率的波动特征及其走势进行分析与预测。结果表明，人民币汇率在短期内会保持相对稳定，中长期存在小幅升值的可能。     

莫斯“礼物交换世界”中的人性诉求

基于"礼物交换世界"中主体间精神的、非功利的联系,莫斯提出了自己的人性理念诉求和人性实践诉求,从而为我们提供了一条克服现实经济危机、法律危机以及道德危机的理想之路,演示了一个和谐社会建构的真实图景。     

Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis

The persistence of global imbalances remains a potential source of instability for the international economic system, which ought to be tackled in order to exit from the current crisis in a better position. This paper shows that the complexity of the global network of trade imbalances has increased over time in terms of the number of countries involved and of the heterogeneity of their conditions. These findings imply that orchestrating a global exchange rate adjustment plan, as done in the 1980s to tackle a similar problem, is certainly more difficult than it was 20 years ago. We also show, however, that the uncoordinated movements in bilateral exchange rates occurred since the early 2000s did not go in the direction of reducing bilateral imbalances. Rebalancing the world economy, thus, seems to require a rich set of coordinated policy actions and economic changes, involving adjustments in both exchange rates and real variables, which are heterogeneous at the country level. We argue that, provided some conditions are satisfied, the variegated effects of the ongoing financial crisis, and the policy responses this has induced, may help the global and bilateral rebalancing process.     

Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don’t work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of “New Structuralists”, exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries.