基于状态空间模型的人民币均衡汇率研究

本文改进传统回归均值系数分析的缺陷,引进汇率风险变量和适应性预期变量,通过构建行为均衡汇率(BEER)的状态空间模型,利用卡尔曼滤波估计时变系数,同时估计了人民币汇率的ECM模型,研究2000年1月～2011年12月各因素对人民币均衡汇率的动态影响,并测算了人民币均衡汇率.研究发现:政府支出、TOT、FDI对人民币的升值影响显著增强,其中贸易条件对人民币升值贡献最大;利率差R、汇率风险RIS和适应性预期变量,逐渐符合理论预测.人民币均衡汇率失衡均在6％以内,不存在较大偏差.近期人民币升值压力主要来自热钱流入,非经济基本因素的内在需求.解释变量对人民币汇率的长期影响符合理论预期,但短期内各因素对人民币汇率的影响与长期影响有一定的冲突.     

另类交易系统监管法律问题研究

另类交易系统是证券交易电子化、网络化的产物,它是以互联网为基础,依据特定交易规则,无中介、自动汇聚和撮合众多投资者买卖证券委托指令的电子交易系统,属于场外交易场所的范畴。另类交易系统区别于传统交易所的特征,在于其交易对象的广泛性,交易流程无中介性和高效性,交易规则的非任意性,交易系统与投资者之间关系的特殊性。与美欧相比,我国亦具备建立另类交易系统的市场环境,我国应当鼓励另类交易系统的建立与发展,并从监管目标和基本原则、监管模式与审慎要求等方面着手,科学构建我国的另类交易系统监管法律制度。     

The Dynamic Relationship Between the Dollar and Components of U.S. Trade

The dynamic response of the nominal trade account to changes in the value of the U.S. dollar has been posited to follow a J-curve pattern. Recent experience calls this into question. The aggregate nominal trade balance is decomposed here into four components, both prices and volumes of imports and exports. Time series specification tests and Granger tests of causal priority are employed to identify the existence and nature of the response of each individual component to dollar movements. Surprisingly weak and delayed responses of both import prices and volumes are found, suggesting a new view of trade-balance evolution.     

A Multivariate GARCH Model Incorporating the Direct and Indirect Transmission of Shocks

Theoretical models of contagion and spillovers allow for asset-specific shocks that can be directly transmitted from one asset to another, as well as indirectly transmitted across uncorrelated assets through some intermediary mechanism. Standard multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, however, provide estimates of volatilities and correlations based only on the direct transmission of shocks across assets. As such, spillover effects via an intermediary asset or market are not considered. In this article, a multivariate GARCH model is constructed that provides estimates of volatilities and correlations based on both directly and indirectly transmitted shocks. The model is applied to exchange rate and equity returns data. The results suggest that if a spillover component is observed in the data, the spillover augmented models provide significantly different volatility estimates compared to standard multivariate GARCH models.     

The Reconstruction of a Social Network Abroad. An Analysis of the Interaction Patterns of Erasmus Students

Abstract

Most studies of interaction patterns of international students focus on ‘degree mobility’ and flows from ‘non-Western’ towards ‘Western’ countries. Nevertheless, in Europe, the shorter alternative of ‘credit mobility’ is more prevalent. However, empirical evidence on social network formation within this specific group of international students remains limited. Therefore, in this article, we study the formation of interaction patterns of students who study for a delineated period in another European country, based on a research project conducted in Austria, Belgium, Italy, Norway, Poland and the UK. The results show that specific interaction patterns can be explained from a flow perspective. Moreover, our study shows that students’ networks abroad are already formed before actual departure. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that institutional as well as group practices encourage or impede interaction between exchange and local students. Two transversal dimensions are especially relevant in the explanation of how groups are formed abroad: language proficiency and shared social spaces.     

A Bayesian Markov-Switching Correlation Model for Contagion Analysis on Exchange Rate Markets

This article develops a new Markov-switching vector autoregressive (VAR) model with stochastic correlation for contagion analysis on financial markets. The correlation and the log-volatility dynamics are driven by two independent Markov chains, thus allowing for different effects such as volatility spill-overs and correlation shifts with various degrees of intensity. We outline a suitable Bayesian inference procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We then apply the model to some major and Asian-Pacific cross rates against the U.S. dollar and find strong evidence supporting the existence of contagion effects and correlation drops during crises, closely in line with the stylized facts outlined in the contagion literature. A comparison of this model with its closest competitors, such as a time-varying parameter VAR, reveals that our model has a better predictive ability. Supplementary materials for this article are available online     

Constructing Efficient Experimental Designs for Generalized Linear Models

Exchange algorithms are popular for finding optimal or efficient designs for linear models, but there are few discussions of this type of algorithm for generalized linear models (GLMs) in literature. A new algorithm, generalized Coordinate Exchange Algorithm (gCEA), is developed in this article to construct efficient designs for GLMs. We compare the performance of the proposed algorithm with other optimization algorithms, including point exchange algorithm, columnwise-pairwise algorithm, simulated annealing and generic algorithm, and demonstrate the superior performance of this new algorithm.     

农村家庭养老中的代际交换分析及其对父代生活质量的影响

家庭养老的实际是代际交换。从目前来看 ,在农村的家庭养老中 ,父代农民处于代际交换的劣势。他们不但背负着沉重的家庭负担 ,在年老养老时也只能依赖于子女的自觉 ,从而使自身的生活质量受到严重影响。     

人民币汇率改革应该控制速度与强度--从我国货币替代问题出发的行为经济学分析

根据行为经济学的基本理论以及相应的实证分析,发现当前我国居民由于损失规避心理较强,因而在决定是否进行货币替代时,对人民币实际汇率的绝对水平反应不足,但对人民币实际汇率的波动程度反应敏感。故人民币汇率制度从盯住单一美元过渡到盯住一篮子货币后,为了防范由货币替代的潜在加剧而造成对宏观经济的冲击,政策当局应该做到:短期内不应对人民币币值进行大幅度或频繁的调整,同时必须维持当前汇率政策的延续性;长期内必须完善国内市场化环境,不断缓解居民的损失规避心理,培育和提升居民对汇率制度改革的应变能力。     

中阿媒体交流与合作刍议

中阿友好合作带有“南南合作”。的性质,双方媒体之间的交流由来已久。进入21世纪,特别是建立“中阿合作论坛”以来,中阿媒体交流与合作不断加强,“中阿媒体合作论坛”就是其重要标志之一。这种交流与合作,不但能使中阿双方和广大发展中国家受益,还将促使国际话语格局朝着积极、公平的方向发展。