外汇市场冲击与国内资本市场波动的关联机理解析

运用三元VAR-GARCH(1,1)-Asymmetric-BEKK模型,解析了汇市、股市和债市间的关联机制。结果显示,汇市对股市和债市有显著的均值与波动溢出,而股市和债市对汇市仅有波动溢出,且汇市对股市的溢出效应大于对债市的溢出。基于新闻冲击曲面的分析揭示了资本市场对汇市冲击呈明显的非对称性。为此,政府应将金融市场开放度的扩大与资本流动的监管相结合,构建针对资本市场风险的多层次测度与监控体系,并完善资本市场的制度架构,增强信息披露的有效性。     

论明代的“以茶治边”政策

“以茶治边”的经济前提是茶叶生产的发展和税茶榷茶制度的实施。其理论基础则是依据“番人倚茶为命”而建立的所谓的“以茶驭番论”。并以此为前提制定了茶叶经济政策尤其是茶马互市政策 ,一方面垄断茶马市场 ;另一方面 ,又对西北游牧民族上层实行“以茶赏番”政策 ,从而加强对西北地区的联系与统治。这一政策对国家的统一、巩固和发展具有重要的意义     

Modeling interest rate cycles in India

The present study tries to examine the behaviour of various Indian interest rates such as call money rate, and yields on secondary market securities with maturity periods of 15–91 days, 1-year, 5-years and 10-years. In the first stage, the study investigates the determinants of interest rates and finds that although the interest rates depend on some domestic macroeconomic variables such as yield spread and expected exchange rate, they are mainly affected by the movements of international interest rates, although with some lags. The policy variables such as Bank Rate and Federal Funds Rate did not show any significant impact on any of the interest rates. Further, it was found that the interest rates in the very recent period show some cyclical movements similar to that of the developed countries. Future behaviour of interest rates show that the present cycle of each interest rate would peak at different time points. This expected behaviour in domestic interest rates could be due to the integration of the domestic economy with the international money and financial market. This trend may be same in most of the emerging economies of Asia.     

Competitive and Cooperative Positioning in Supply Chain Logistics Relationships*

Cooperative logistics relationships require the sharing of information, which must be enabled by the integration of disparate information systems across partners. In this article, we theorize business‐to‐business logistics relationships should be managed using cooperative and competitive postures. Based on data from 91 dyadic relationships using interorganizational information technology (IT), we find that performance gains accrue when parties share strategic information and customize IT; mutual trust enables IT customization and strategic‐information flows and equitable relationship‐specific investments positively impact IT customization, mutual trust, and performance. Among other scholarly and practical implications discussed, partners should compete on resources for IT customization and cooperate to share strategic information. Managers tend to think of relationships with firms as polar opposites and view them as entirely cooperative or entirely competitive. Our results support active balancing and understanding of both competitive and cooperative stances. Such an approach enables conditions for participation symmetry that yields greater performance gains.     

传统营销面临新经济的挑战

本文主要阐释了新经济的涵义与特征;着重探索了新经济对传统市场营销带来的冲击,以及是对传统市场、消费者地位、消费者需求、交易模式、营销策略等的影响;提出了传统营销企业应对新经济的对策思路。     

仿射模型、广义仿射模型与上交所利率期限结构

本文以上交所利率期限结构从1996年6月至2003年2月的周样本数据作为分析对象,发现样本期内利率期限结构的平均形状是上斜的,而短期利率的基本趋势是下降的,说明长期债券具有较高的风险金。然后利用卡尔曼滤波法,实证分析了连续时间的两因子仿射、广义高斯仿射利率模型。结果表明模型下的利率期限结构与实际观测到的利率期限结构形状基本相同,说明模型能够反映利率期限结构的横截面特征。但两个模型对1,2,3,5,7年期利率的预测误差表现出一定序列相关性,说明模型还不能够很好地描述利率期限结构的时间序列特征。     

双顺差对货币政策有效性影响的实证分析

运用计量分析方法,对我国1994—2009年外汇储备与货币供应量M2、外汇占款及基础货币的相关关系进行实证研究,结果表明,双顺差引致外汇储备的大量增长是导致M2增长的原因,外汇占款已经成为央行供应基础货币的重要渠道之一,而国际收支双顺差最终会造成货币政策的有效性降低。     

The Euro, income disparity and monetary union

This paper looks at the impact of the UK joining the Euro on compatibility between the UK and the Euro zone. We construct a theoretical model to capture such effects, and then estimate the model using data from the period 1980–1999 (the period covering the existence of the ECU and the Euro). Particular attention is paid to the actual dynamics of the system and the important roles of monetary and fiscal policy. We find that the dynamic path of the UK and Euro members is stable and that UK monetary policy is in line with that of its Euro zone neighbours in a way that would be close to that expected if the UK were already a member of the Euro zone.     

The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale

Formal testing procedures confirm the presence of a unit root in the autoregressive polynomial of the univariate time series representation of daily exchange-rate data. The first differences of the logarithms of daily spot rates are approximately uncorrelated through time, and a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with daily dummy variables and conditionally t-distributed errors is found to provide a good representation to the leptokurtosis and time-dependent conditional heteroscedasticity. The parameter estimates and characteristics of the models are found to be very similar for six different currencies. These apparent stylized facts carry over to weekly, fortnightly, and monthly data in which the degree of leptokurtosis and time-dependent heteroscedasticity is reduced as the length of the sampling interval increases.     

Inter-organizational governance: a review,conceptualisation and extension

Abstract

Although the concepts of relational and contractual governance in inter-organizational relationships have attracted academic and practitioner interest over the last decades, to date there have been limited comprehensive and systematic efforts to review, analyse and synthesise extant literature. We review and analyse 1,415 publications identified from a wide range of management disciplines and journals from 1990 to 2018. We deploy bibliographic and content analyses to offer a comprehensive literature analyses and synthesis and subsequently develop and position a multidimensional framework of exchange governance. The proposed framework covers existing conceptualisations of exchange governance and its diverse mechanisms, environmental dimensions influencing the use of exchange governance mechanisms and performance implications. We uncover areas that are currently under-studied and draw out fruitful future research avenues.