马福祥与现代回儒对话——兼谈回儒对话的价值与意义

马福祥（1876-1932）,字云亭,回族,甘肃临夏人,与其侄马鸿宾、子马鸿逵执政宁夏长达37年之久,先后出任宁夏护军使、绥远都统、西北边防会边、航空督办、国民党军事委员会委员、故宫博物院理事、青岛特别市市长、安徽省主席、蒙藏委员会委员长等要职,曾得到西北回族军人拥戴,以西北回民领袖身份自居。马福祥一生饱读经书,崇尚儒家文化,同时非常关心回族文化教育事业,为消除清代在回汉民族间造成的创伤及隔阂,提倡回儒对话,成绩显著,成为现代社会著名回族人物。     

海南换地权益书价值实现的困境与出路——兼谈海南房地产业的振兴与规范

对积压房地产项目核发换地权益书是海南处置积压房地产实践中创设的一项制度.由于其产生于特定背景之下,制度设计的缺陷致使换地权益书发放量大,回收量少.市场流通渠道不畅,导致换地权益书严重贬值,对政府公信力和海南经济发展造成了一定负面影响.海南经济特区政府应当充分考虑换地权益书持有人的利益,通过设立专项基金,强化政府责任,增强透明度,鼓励交易等措施改良现行制度,并通过资产证券化等更多的制度创新,盘活换地权益书,实现其真实价值.     

信息透明度对B2B交易场作用的博弈分析

传统理论认为,低的信息透明度不利于买卖双方之间达成交易,无法实现资源在市场中的最优化配置,而提高信息的透明度将有利于改变这一局面。本文通过博弈论方法分析低信息透明度和高信息透明度分别对传统交易场和B2B交易场的负面影响作用,认为,高信息透明度对于在线交易并非完全是一件有益之事。在此基础上,本文提出了降低高信息透明度负面影响作用的方法。     

财政政策与货币政策对国民收入的影响分析

 内容提要：财政政策和货币政策同属政府干预宏观经济最重要、使用最频繁的两大工具,可依宏观经济调控要求进行合理搭配。本文在人民币一篮子货币汇率制度框架下,用修正的M-F模型深入分析我国财政与货币政策对国民经济的综合影响。结果显示扩张的财政政策辅以扩张的货币政策是目前较理想的操作方式。用2005年7月至2010年6月的月度数据进行的实证研究结果佐证了上述理论。最后提出相关政策建议。     

A Cross-Validation Analysis of Neural Network Out-of-Sample Performance in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Econometric methods used in foreign exchange rate forecasting have produced inferior out-of-sample results compared to a random walk model. Applications of neural networks have shown mixed findings. In this paper, we investigate the potentials of neural network models by employing two cross-validation schemes. The effects of different in-sample time periods and sample sizes are examined. Out-of-sample performance evaluated with four criteria across three forecasting horizons shows that neural networks are a more robust forecasting method than the random walk model. Moreover, neural network predictions are quite accurate even when the sample size is relatively small.     

Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade

This study aims to revisit the effectiveness of using currency devaluation as a policy tool to improve trade balance by estimating the exchange rate elasticities of services trade between the US and rest of the world with quarterly disaggregated services trade data from 1999 to 2015. Empirical results reveal that the impacts of currency devaluation on individual services trade are mixed and largely depend on the nature of services. Using currency devaluation to raise export services trade and reduce import services trade seems to be more effective in the long-run but not in the short-run. It is interesting to note that some individual services trades are insensitive to exchange rate changes. The estimates also reveal that most categories of services trade are income elastic and economic growth plays a key role in determining the imports and exports of services trade.     

Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.     

人民币均衡汇率决定机制及其影响因素的作用分析——基于行为均衡汇率估算模型分析技术改进的研究

 本文首先对经典行为均衡汇率模型简要解读。指出其在估算实践中,暗含技术上的严格假定。本文给出放松假定的改进。通过人民币均衡汇率估算的经验分析,对改进工作进行检验。为人民币均衡汇率估算研究搭建一个深入分析的技术平台。经验分析的主要结论是,人民币实际汇率短期存在低估,但与长期均衡汇率比较,其实际汇率一直存在高估的情况。鉴于均衡汇率水平的决定机制复杂,人民币汇率水平升值调整必须慎之又慎。     

人民币均衡汇率测算模型研究中的相关问题

 人民币均衡汇率水平问题已成为国内外各界关注的焦点,对人民币均衡汇率水平的研究不同学者其估计结果不相一致,至今没有统一观点。本文以人民币均衡汇率测算为核心,对与之相关的均衡汇率的定义与内涵、影响因素等相关问题进行了综述,并在此基础上对均衡汇率测算的主要模型进行了综述,由此得到研究我国人民币均衡汇率测算中还存在许多研究空间。并得到均衡汇率测算研究结果不同主要是由于对均衡汇率的定义和确定的影响因素不同等方面所造成的,因而对人民币均衡汇率测算的方法也各异。     

Why do people engage in paid informal work? A comparison of higher- and lower-income urban neighbourhoods in Britain

The aim of this paper is to show that the extensive and growing sphere of paid informal work is not the same everywhere. Instead, we identify distinct socio-spatial differences in its character and the reasons why people engage in such work. Drawing upon interviews with 511 households in higher- and lower-income urban neighbourhoods of British cities, we reveal that for people living in the higher-income neighbourhoods, most paid informal work is conducted under social relations akin to formal employment. Exchange is between consumers and suppliers previously unknown to each other who are motivated by economic gain. For the populations of the lower-income neighbourhoods, in contrast, paid informal exchange occurs mostly between relatives, friends and neighbours for reasons associated with redistribution and sociality. Consequently, we show the need to move beyond assigning a universal character and logic to paid informal work and for greater recognition of the socio-spatial differences in this form of exchange. El objetivo de este articulo es demostrar que la esfera extensiva y creciente del trabajo pagado informal no es en todos sitios igual. En cambio, identificamos distintas diferencias socio-espaciales en al carácter y en el porque la gente se dedica a tales trabajos. Recurrimos a entrevistas con 511 hogares de barrios urbanos con ingresos elevados e ingresos bajos en varios ciudades británicas para revelar que, para los que viven en los barrios de ingresos elevados, la mayoría del trabajo pagado informal se conduce según relaciones sociales parecidas a las del empleo formal. En este caso, el intercambio ocurre entre consumidores y proveedores, previamente desconocidos, motivados por ganancia. Por cambio, en los barrios de ingresos bajos, el intercambio pagado informal ocurre principalmente entre familia, amigos y vecinos por razones asociadas con la redistribución y la socialidad. Por consiguiente, demostramos la necesidad de avanzar mas allá del mero nombrar un carácter y una lógica universal al trabajo pagado informal, y de dar mayor reconocimiento a las diferencias socio-espaciales en esta forma de intercambio.