Does the Euro–Mediterranean Partnership contribute to regional integration?

The paper investigates whether Southern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets under the Euro–Mediterranean Partnership (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Malta, and Turkey) have become more financially integrated with the European stock market over time. The findings suggest that the Turkish equity market is moderately integrated with the European market, while the other economies exhibit weak financial integration with Europe, supporting the idea that the partnership appears to have no effect on enhancing inter-market linkages for these economies. Therefore, these markets would be good destinations for international investors seeking attractive investment opportunities to diversify their equity portfolios. Structural changes in the cross-market integration do exist, which may be considered as a guide for international equity portfolio diversification over different subperiods. In addition, there is evidence of an increasing trend in conditional correlations for Egypt and Turkey, to varying degrees, over time, notably during the post global financial crisis of 2007–2008, thus revealing herding behavior during this period. Overall, investors should be wary of the variation of equity market integration over time before engaging in an investment at the level of portfolio management and diversification. Policymakers must be aware of the remoteness of the current achievements of the Euro–Mediterranean Partnership from the targets set in terms of financial development and economic growth.     

基于高维波动率网络模型的股票市场风险特征研究

波动率是金融风险管理研究的重要内容之一。本文基于复杂网络理论和数据挖掘技术提出股票市场的高维波动率网络模型。首先运用互信息度量不同股票价格波动之间的相关关系,其次对股票市场不同周期下的波动情况建立度的中心势、平均距离、幂律分布等网络拓扑指标,再次根据这些指标利用Prim算法构建出高维波动率网络模型,最后运用Newman-Girvan算法对股票价格波动率的相关性进行分层研究。高维波动率网络模型突破了传统波动率模型关于变量维数的限制,能够在依赖少量假设的基础上,挖掘出多个金融市场主体间的相互关系,反映金融市场的风险特征及网络拓扑性质。实证结果发现：与常用的Pearson相关系数法相比,在互信息框架下,股价波动的非线性相关关系得到了更好的度量;股票市场的整体波动性与个股波动率相关性变化趋势相反,市场处在高波动时期资产组合分散化效果较好;网络中存在少量度数大的关键节点和中心节点,风险通过这些节点可以迅速传递到整个市场;股票市场的运行具有明显的行业聚集现象;网络分层研究进一步直观的展现了风险在层与层之间的传递规律和与之对应的行业特征。高维波动率网络模型为挖掘股票市场的风险特征与管理金融风险提供了一个新的工具。     

金融周期、金融波动与中国经济增长——基于省际面板门槛模型的研究

本文应用面板门槛模型,研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省（市、自治区）金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现,随着金融周期所处阶段的变化,金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应,主要体现为如下两点：首先,金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响,但从影响系数值的大小来看,处于膨胀期时最大,是后两者的2倍之多,处于平稳期时最小且并不显著;其次,分区域的稳健性检验表明,金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早,且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明,经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化,金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间,但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性,这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾,对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。     

产业协同集聚的资源错配效应研究

利用2003－2016年中国280个地级市的数据,分别测算了产业协同集聚指数、资本错配和劳动力错配指数,采用差分GMM方法考察产业协同集聚对资源错配的影响。结果发现：产业协同集聚的提高,会显著降低资本错配和劳动力错配指数;分地区的回归发现,东部地区产业协同集聚改善了资本错配,对劳动力错配负向作用不显著,中部地区产业协同集聚会改善资本错配,但会恶化劳动力错配,西部地区产业协同集聚则加剧了资本错配,但可以缓解劳动力错配情况。进一步作用机制分析表明,产业协同集聚水平的提高,会显著提高金融业的专业化分工,进而改善资本错配,同时会提高劳动力成本,改善劳动力错配。文章的政策含义是通过产业协同集聚,可以提高金融业的专业化分工和劳动力成本,进而缓解资本和劳动力的错配,提高经济效率,促进经济增长。     

Cross-validation of the screening scale in an adult protective services sample

Adult Protective Services (APS) professionals are often called on to assess decision-making capacity when investigating financial exploitation. Previous research found that in consecutive APS cases, a decision-making screening scale (LFDSS) also detected financial exploitation. The purpose of this study was to apply the clinical cutoff scores derived from the previous study to a new sample of APS cases. Using a sample of 105 participants, from APS workers across 5 counties this study investigated the clinical utility of the LFDSS to detect financial exploitation based on ratings by APS professionals using the scale. Results demonstrate that the LFDSS has excellent internal consistency and clinical utility properties. This paper provides support for use of the LFDSS as a reliable and valid instrument. Instructions for use of the LFDSS are included in the article, along with information about online support tools.     

建立中国(上海)自由贸易试验区动因及其经济效应分析

上海自贸试验区的建立,不是着眼于一城市、一区域的发展,而是力图通过开放转变政府角色、推动制度创新,突破金融领域的改革难点,从而带来"制度红利",充分运用市场调配资源的高效为我国社会主义建设事业服务。上海要实现建成金融中心、贸易中心的宏伟目标,必须从自贸试验区开始,从根本上摒除要素流动的障碍,协调好与经济腹地,与香港、深圳前海等区域的关系,实现区域经济协同发展。上海自贸试验区的建成,必将进一步推动上海服务业产业集聚,推动上海金融中心、航运中心、贸易中心更上一个能级,辐射长江流域甚至更广阔的地域。     

Pre-decisional information acquisition: Why do we pay too much for information? Brief report

People tend to acquire more information while making their decisions than a rational and risk-neutral benchmark would predict. We conduct a carefully designed experiment to derive five plausible reasons for pre-decision information overpurchasing. The results show that overpurchasing of information can be almost entirely explained by systematic information processing errors (misestimation or incorrect Bayesian updating), possibly caused by biased intuitive decision processes. Other factors, such as overoptimism about the validity of the new information, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and curiosity about (irrelevant) information, play at most a minor role. Our results imply that information overacquisitions are mainly driven by the overestimation of the usefulness of additional information.     

Financial Intermediation Modernization in Countries with Transition Economy

During the modern phase of economic reforms directed at the establishment of market economy, many countries with transition economies face the challenge of solving the issue of formation and rational usage of internal sources of financing the real sector of the economy, as well as attracting considerable volume of direct foreign investment. In general, financial market imperfections hold back innovation and growth, and that public policy can complement financial markets. Therefore, the most relevant issue at the present time is the formation of attendant and complex supervision institutions, as well as an exigency of innovative economy governance as mainframe principles for further banking system elaboration and financial sector development in general. We have taken Armenia as a case study for transition economy as far as Armenia is currently in the stage of capital market development through integration into international financial markets.      

Exploitation aversion: When financial incentives fail to motivate agents

Studies of the principal-agent relationship find that monetary incentives work in many instances but that they can also backfire. Various mechanisms for this failure have been examined (e.g., intrinsic motivation, image concerns). We posit that an aversion to being exploited, i.e., being used instrumentally for another’s benefit, can also cause incentives to fail. Using an experiment we find that compliance is lower for exploitative principals compared to neutral ones despite using the same contracts. To corroborate our results we show that surveyed “exploitation aversion” mediates this effect. Our results have implications for the design and implementation of incentives within organizations.     

Markets or networks: Households’ choice of financial intermediary in Western China

We argue that households’ choice of financial intermediary is conditioned by households’ social network structures and socioeconomic status. Analyses show that households’ social network size and network composition affect their choices by limiting the quality and quantity of information, resources, and social influence one can access through social ties. Moreover, we find that high-SES families favor formal intermediaries due not only to their richer financial knowledge, higher affordability, and greater capacity to repay loans, but also to their high demands and special types of financial needs that can hardly be satisfied by embedded resources.