奇异点检测的小波方法在证券市场中的应用

本文使用小波变换模极大值方法分析次贷危机中美国证券市场的突变。研究发现,小波模极大值方法准确定位了金融资产价格异常点的具体时刻;检测出了2类奇异点,其中峰值点检测比过零点检测更稳健;这些奇异点对应了美国次贷危机主要发展阶段的重大经济事件,反应出危机中美国经济系统异常对金融市场造成的影响。文章最后进行了稳健性检验。     

我国政府财政统计核算的记录基础及虚拟计算操作的改革研究

本文突破了我国当前政府财政统计核算工作显著落后于国际标准的现状。根据《2001GFS》的相关建议,对我国政府财政统计核算的记录基础的改革路径进行了研究,详细阐述了由权责发生制改革带来的虚拟计算的内容,并制定了相应的操作方法。对于我国政府财政统计核算的理论研究和实践工作都具有重大的指导意义。但本文的研究尚处于初级阶段,未形成一套完整的操作体系,具体操作方法有待经基层工作检验并改进。     

The estimation for Lévy processes in high frequency data

In this article, a generalized Lévy model is proposed and its parameters are estimated in high-frequency data settings. An infinitesimal generator of Lévy processes is used to study the asymptotic properties of the drift and volatility estimators. They are consistent asymptotically and are independent of other parameters making them better than those in Chen et al. (2010 Chen, S. X., Delaigle, A., Hall, P. (2010). Nonparametric estimation for a class of Lévy processes. Journal of Econometrics 157:257–271.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The estimators proposed here also have fast convergence rates and are simple to implement.     

A bivariate distribution with Lomax and geometric margins

We develop a stochastic model describing the joint distribution of $(X,N)$, where $N$ has a geometric distribution while $X$ is the sum of $N$ dependent, heavy-tail Pareto components. Models of this form arise in many applications, ranging from hydro-climatology to finance and insurance. We present fundamental properties of this vector, including marginal and conditional distributions, moments, representations, and parameter estimation. We also include an example from finance, illustrating modeling potential of this new bivariate distribution.     

收入风险、金融教育与家庭金融市场参与

运用中国城市居民消费金融调查数据,基于因果推断的分析框架,采用倾向分值匹配法研究了收入风险、金融教育对家庭金融市场参与的影响。研究发现,收入越稳定,家庭开展金融教育的概率越高;金融教育显著提高了家庭的金融市场参与;按收入风险将样本分组后,上述结论依然稳健,且金融教育对不同家庭金融市场参与的影响具有非对称性。在对家庭收入稳定性分类的基础上,有针对性地增加金融教育的供给,提升家庭整体的金融教育水平,有利于提高家庭金融市场参与度,优化家庭金融资产配置,进而改善家庭金融福利。     

金融竞争、相对资本深化与地区经济效率

 与国内外大多从财政收支角度来研究地区的策略性竞争行为不同,本文通过建立空间计量模型检验了我国地区间金融策略性行为,通过构造相对资本深度指标研究了这种背景下地区资本深化对经济效率的影响。研究表明,地区之间的金融策略性竞争行为具有显著的阶段性特征,在很大程度上受地方财政资源充裕程度的影响;从平均意义上来看,全国总体的金融配置并不符合各地资源禀赋结构所决定的最优相对资本深度,存在效率损失,但在不同区域和不同阶段存在显著的差异。因此,合理引导地方政府行为以及有效协调财政金融体制改革对于促进地方金融健康发展进而提升区域经济效率具有深远的意义。     

A Knowledge Based System for Assisting in Differential Diagnosis of Chemically Dependent/Mentally Ill Patients

Summary

This paper discusses the use of Knowledge Base 2.1, a computer program that administers a response dependent, structured interview to evaluate the presence of psychiatric disorders within the chemical dependency treatment setting. The writer reviews the problems commonly encountered when conducting clinical interviews, psychometric examinations and differentially diagnosing psychiatric disorders within this special population. Knowledge Base 2.1 utilizes combined computer techniques of rule driven logic, pattern matching, and an original algorithm that accomplishes a “real time retandardization” of the complete database. With each administration, standardization is implemented in an effort to adequately consider the effects of chemical dependency on psychological test performance and normative information regarding symptoms. Knowledge Base 2.1 also functions as a research tool inasmuch as all patient responses to this structured interview are permanently stored in computer files for ongoing analysis.     

Mastering ‘Lady Credit’

This article politicizes current understandings of financial crises. It is argued that financial discourse, and specifically the discourse that locates financial crises in the realm of madness and delusion, is founded upon a distinctively masculine conception of agency. This argument is made by looking at early eighteenth-century debates concerning the emergence of credit and paper money. The article examines Daniel Defoe's satirical personification, Lady Credit. Lady Credit embodies all the irrational, inconstant and effeminate aspects that had to be purged from financial discourse before it was able to gain respectability as a rational, disinterested and scientific sphere of action. Lady Credit is not unlike ancient goddess, Fortuna, who ruled capriciously over the affairs of men. The financial discourse under examination implies that it is in times of crisis that financial man loses self-control and is prevented from seeing economic reality by the delusions that Lady Credit generates in him. Through the virile mastering of Lady Credit, it is implied, the smooth and neutral workings of the financial sphere are guaranteed. The article contends that this inherently gendered manner of understanding financial crises informs debates on financial crisis today, as can be exemplified by the public discussion on the recent crisis in Asia.     

Protest Through Presence: Spatial Citizenship and Identity Formation in Contestations of Neoliberal Crises

We live in a contested, crisis-prone era, indicative of ongoing processes of neoliberalization. The most recent global financial and food crises have disproportionately impacted those already marginalized in society: people of colour and the working classes. The spatial expressions of this disproportionality are especially acute, evidenced by the uneven distribution of the basic necessities of food and home. Activists in the USA are responding with forms of spatial citizenship, namely exercising their right to peaceably assemble and reclaiming public spaces. During the creation of spaces of dissent, we observe the fluid formation of a collective spatialized identity among social movement actors, contingent on political identities and ideology. We use two cases based in Florida to highlight these processes. The first case is a local iteration of the Occupy Wall Street protests, Occupy Gainesville, which has occupied the city's most central public gathering place, the Bo Diddley Community Plaza. The second case involves Food Not Bombs in the city of Orlando where attempts were made to ban the group from distributing food in public parks to the homeless and working poor. First, these cases highlight the spatiotemporal relationships between unjust economic systems and the state surveillance and policing apparatus and those resisting such systems. Second, they reveal how collective identity influences and in turn is influenced by space. Our article furthers a processual, dynamic understanding of activist mobilizations to reduce the uneven burdens of neoliberalization and argues for greater attention to the spatialities of contentious politics.     

金融产业集聚与区域经济增长

金融产业集聚对区域经济增长起着不容忽视的作用,本文在金融产业集聚对经济增长影响机理分析的基础上,选取我国生产性服务业的典型代表——北京市为案例,描述其金融产业集聚与经济增长状况,并基于6大主城区的数据,利用扩展的C-D函数及混合面板模型对金融产业集聚对区域经济增长的影响进行了实证检验.研究发现：北京市金融业已形成良好的金融集聚态势;金融业集聚对区域经济增长有着明显的正向促进作用.在此基础上,提出了进一步加强金融集聚及其对区域经济增长作用的政策建议.