促进小额贷款公司健康发展的政策体系研究

小额贷款是金融制度的创新,是对现代金融体系的提升和扬弃。小额贷款公司等微型金融是国家金融系统的必要组成部分,是国家普惠金融体系的一个特殊机构。小额贷款公司的出现延伸了金融服务的广度和深度,在一定程度上缓冲了银行的信贷风险,也使得金融体系更具包容性,从而完善了金融支持经济的功能。小额信贷不仅能促进一国的经济增长,也会丰富金融体系和金融监管的内涵。应设计出更加符合发展需求的政策体系,使小贷公司有更好的发展愿景。     

Evaluating the power of Minitab's data subsetting lack of fit test in multiple linear regression

Minitab's data subsetting lack of fit test (denoted XLOF) is a combination of Burn and Ryan's test and Utts' test for testing lack of fit in linear regression models. As an alternative to the classical or pure error lack of fit test, it does not require replicates of predictor variables. However, due to the uncertainty about its performance, XLOF still remains unfamiliar to regression users while the well-known classical lack of fit test is not applicable to regression data without replicates. So far this procedure has not been mentioned in any textbooks and has not been included in any other software packages. This study assesses the performance of XLOF in detecting lack of fit in linear regressions without replicates by comparing the power with the classic test. The power of XLOF is simulated using Minitab macros for variables with several forms of curvature. These comparisons lead to pragmatic suggestions on the use of XLOF. The performance of XLOF was shown to be superior to the classical test based on the results. It should be noted that the replicates required for the classical test made itself unavailable for most of the regression data while XLOF can still be as powerful as the classic test even without replicates.     

Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA

Summary.  We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances.     

湖北、浙江两省中小企业融资比较研究————以制造业为例

 论文以实证调查数据为基础,从融资难易度、融资方式和融资渠道、银行信贷服务状况、金融环境等方面对湖北省和浙江省制造业中小企业进行了比较分析。对比结果表明:资金问题是湖北省中小企业发展的最大障碍,而浙江省中小企业的人才矛盾则更为突出;同时湖北省中小企业在融资环境建设、金融服务供应等方面也逊色于浙江省中小企业。文章最后借鉴浙江经验,对改善湖北省中小企业融资环境,提高其融资能力提出了五项建议。     

Splines for financial volatility

Summary.  We propose a flexible generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity type of model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B -splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B -spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations. As the dimension of the B -spline basis is large, i.e. many parameters, we use regularized and sparse model fitting with a boosting algorithm. Our method is computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility on simulated and real data, and also in comparison with other approaches, and we present some supporting asymptotic arguments.     

人工智能在孤独症谱系障碍儿童临床诊断中的应用研究综述

近年来,孤独症谱系障碍的发病率不断攀升,但其早期诊断资源仍极为匮乏。随着计算机技术、电子工程学以及统计学等学科的发展,人工智能（AI）在孤独症的临床诊断中高效率、高准确率、高稳定性的独特优势日益凸显。当前人工智能在孤独症诊断领域的研究主要集中于孤独症的早期识别、预测、诊断以及人机互动辅助干预研究等四大方面。综述的结果指明,在未来的人工智能的孤独症诊断应用方面,应明确其辅助性发展定位、完善法律和法规制度、健全信息化数据体系、加强信息化安全建设、促进便携式设备发展、推动复合型人才培养。     

Antenatal care utilisation among Syrian refugees in Tehran: A respondent driven sampling method

AimTo assess the antenatal care utilisation among Syrian refugees in Tehran.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was performed in 2016 in Tehran. As the refugees live in the city, we used Respondent Driven Sampling method for finding participants. Data were collected from interviews by a newly graduated Syrian general practitioner.FindingsIn total, 231 women participated in the study. The mean (standard deviation) number of antenatal care visits was 3.73 (1.41) and 131(56.7%) women received at least four visits. The mean (standard deviation) number of antenatal care visits was higher among women with four or more living children compared with those with four or more: 3.47 (1.35); 95% confidence interval 3.28 to 3.66 vs. 2.82 (1.64); 95% confidence interval 2.25 to 3.40, p = 0.01. The mean (standard deviation) number of antenatal care visits was higher among women whose spouses had academic degrees compared with those with lower education: 4.13 (1.37); 95% confidence interval 3.86–4.40 vs. 3.28 (1.31); 95% confidence interval 3.05–3.52, p < 0.001.ConclusionsAntenatal care utilisation of Syrian women in Tehran complied with neither national guidelines of Iran nor the recommendations of World Health Organization. However, antenatal care utilisation of Syrian women in Tehran was higher than the main destinations of Syrian refugees. Syrian women kept their own cultural behaviour in terms of antenatal care utilisation.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

Family identification facilitates coping with financial stress: A social identity approach to family financial resilience

Family financial stress research has typically examined negative effects of deprivation on mental health, which in turn erode financial coping. While this work acknowledges family support’s role in buffering these effects, it has typically overlooked how family identification can act to structure the experience of, and response to, economic challenge. We adopt a Social Identity approach, arguing that family identification predicts increased social support and improved well-being, which predicts more effective coping with financial problems. We explore this in two community surveys (N = 369; N = 187). In the first we show that stronger family identification and support predict better well-being, which predicts better evaluation of economic coping. In the second we replicate these findings, and also show that the relationship between well-being and financial distress is fully mediated by perceptions of ‘Collective Family Financial Efficacy’. These findings point to a more positive understanding of how family cohesion can promote mental well-being/resilience.     

Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life

Adverse childhood experiences might have long-lasting effects on decisions under uncertainty in adult life. Merging the European Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement with data on conflict events during the Second World War, and relying on region-by-cohort variation in war exposure, we show that warfare exposure during childhood is associated with lower financial risk taking in later life. Individuals who experienced war episodes as children hold less – and are less likely to hold – stocks, but are more likely to hold life insurance, compared to non-exposed individuals. Effects are robust to the inclusion of potential mediating factors, and are tested for nonlinearity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we provide evidence of hedonic adaptation to war, as high and low intensity of war exposure have comparable long-term effects. We also document that war exposure in childhood increases sensitivity to financial uncertainty since exposed-to-war individuals are less likely to hold stocks after periods of high volatility. Finally, we shed light on the most likely mechanism in the relationship between war exposure and financial risk taking – i.e., enhanced sensitivity to uncertainty – and we show that preferences, and not beliefs, channel this relationship.