构建以人为本的英语教学模式

传统的英语教育模式忽视了学生的个性意识、个性特点和个性需要,违背了人本主义的教育教学理念。如何提高教学效率一直是外语教师主要探讨的问题。文章运用人本主义的教学理念,结合实际探讨了如何构建以人为本的新型教学模式以改进英语教学,提高教学效率。以人为本的新型教学模式包括:创立民主愉悦的课堂教学环境、构建个性化的学习空间、设计师生共同探索的教学活动、建立协作性的教学模式。     

商标权保护与平行进口问题研究

文章从国际货物贸易中的专利平行进口问题的含义,重点在于对“权利穷竭”原则与“地域性”原则两种理论依据进行相关内容分析。通过分析世界各国对待商标平行进口的态度,对当前中国知识产权领域商标平行进口立法方向做出自己的判断。     

意象是心灵上的图画

探讨了意象的渊源及其互为影响、超越时空的意象差异、不同语境的理解与阐释以及意象作为文艺作品生命的细胞,并分析了它们在跨文化交流中所起的作用。     

苏北“三农”问题的现状分析与研究

从江苏省“两个率先”目标的高度,就江苏苏北地区的“三农”问题进行分析,指出能否解决苏北“三农”问题已是影响江苏实现“两个率先”目标的关键,进而提出了解决苏北“三农”问题应从转变观念、提高农民国民待遇、加强农村基础设施建设和加快农村经济结构调整,以及加快苏北城市化建设,促进农村劳动力转移和控制人口增长,开发苏北农村的人力资源着手。     

Statistics for weighing benefits and harms in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized cancer prevention trial

Summary.  When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes.     

毛泽东"以民为本"思想新探

“以民为本”思想是毛泽东思想的重要组成部分,是中国共产党新民本观的核心内容;全心全意为人民群众谋福利、人民是国家主人、向人民负责、关心人民群众生活、艰苦奋斗、勤俭节约的思想,是构成毛泽东“以民为本”思想的主要方面。     

英汉习语的文化翻译

由于文化背景的不同,英汉两种语言的习语文化内涵也有差异。该文先从思维方式、风俗习惯、宗教神话和地域环境四方面讨论了英汉习语文化内涵的不同,然后分析了引起习语翻译障碍的原因,依据等效翻译理论对习语翻译的方法作了简要探讨。     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

中国交通运输业发展的实证研究

采用协整和误差纠正模型与方法，对中国改革开放20多年来交通运输发展与一些相关影响因素之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：旅客运输需求与国民收入、乘车费用之间，货物运输与国民经济、燃油价格之间分别存在长期稳定关系。研究认为：中国交通的发展应适当超前于国民经济的发展。同时，研究还发现：“旅游黄金周”的实施并不是促进中国旅客运输需求的显著影响因素。