规划调整决策任务分解、认知限制与决策支持

规划调整决策问题(PCDPs-Program and Control Decision Problems)都比较宏观综合,涉及面广且结构性差,决策支持需求不易确定。本论文将通过决策任务分解说明决策认知过程,并在知识分类的基础上论述完成决策任务中的认知限制,进而从扩展决策者的认知能力出发给出了决策支持基本功能设计和开发规划调整决策支持系统(PCDSS)的三层结构。     

发展干预项目的有效性评估：功能定位与操作难题

发展干预项目的评估是确定发展目标、发展效率、干预影响以及可持续性同项目实施之间的相关性的过程。它至少包含两方面的现实功能,学术层面上,是回应当前知识界对于发展项目是否真正有效的学术争论的最直接手段;实践层面上,能够对特定发展项目的持续或中止进行合法化描述。发展干预是由多元因素长期共同作用下产生的改变,要展示其项目多大程度上推动了发展变迁,是一件十分困难的事情,其操作性难题主要包括：复杂社会系统中干预效果的归因偏差议题;阶段性影响与最终效果的关系平衡议题;普遍性与情景化的评估方法的采用偏向议题;项目评估的时间节点的动态选择议题。操作性难题归结成最重要的一点,其实就在于如何判断发展干预行动是否真正推动了减贫发展与社会变迁。     

Multivariate bandwidth selection for local linear regression

The existence and properties of optimal bandwidths for multivariate local linear regression are established, using either a scalar bandwidth for all regressors or a diagonal bandwidth vector that has a different bandwidth for each regressor. Both involve functionals of the derivatives of the unknown multivariate regression function. Estimating these functionals is difficult primarily because they contain multivariate derivatives. In this paper, an estimator of the multivariate second derivative is obtained via local cubic regression with most cross-terms left out. This estimator has the optimal rate of convergence but is simpler and uses much less computing time than the full local estimator. Using this as a pilot estimator, we obtain plug-in formulae for the optimal bandwidth, both scalar and diagonal, for multivariate local linear regression. As a simpler alternative, we also provide rule-of-thumb bandwidth selectors. All these bandwidths have satisfactory performance in our simulation study.     

公诉案件被害人权利救济的理论探索

文章从公诉案件被害人的权利救济切入,探索公诉案件被害人权利保障的涵义、性质、权能、限制等基础理论,并从关注被害人的角度提出了刑事诉讼"立体结构"的构造理论,指出被害人有力量的核心就是赋予被害人实实在在的救济权,使其成为独立、自主的刑诉主体,而被害人的救济权是被害人的基本人权.     

Masking methods that preserve positivity constraints in microdata

Statistical agencies have conflicting obligations to protect confidential information provided by respondents to surveys or censuses and to make data available for research and planning activities. When the microdata themselves are to be released, in order to achieve these conflicting objectives, statistical agencies apply statistical disclosure limitation (SDL) methods to the data, such as noise addition, swapping or microaggregation. Some of these methods do not preserve important structure and constraints in the data, such as positivity of some attributes or inequality constraints between attributes. Failure to preserve constraints is not only problematic in terms of data utility, but also may increase disclosure risk.In this paper, we describe a method for SDL that preserves both positivity of attributes and the mean vector and covariance matrix of the original data. The basis of the method is to apply multiplicative noise with the proper, data-dependent covariance structure.     

社会资本理论研究的局限及应注意的问题

近年来,社会资本已经成为社会学、政治学等学科所普遍关注的热点和前沿问题,社会资本概念也被广泛用来解释经济增长和社会发展。对社会资本理论研究中的局限及今后研究中应注意的问题进行研究,可以使人们对社会资本理论有一更深刻的认识和把握。     

公益诉讼费用分担方式的构建

公益诉讼费用是公益诉讼必然面临的问题,其合理与否极大地关系着人们享受法律保障的程度。但公益诉讼往往诉讼成本高,导致公益诉讼难以取得理想的预期效果,而现行的诉讼费用分担方式并不能完全适应公益诉讼的发展需要。因此,应从被告方分担、受益者分担、国家分担三方面入手,通过设立公益诉讼奖励基金以及费用移转支付的方式,建立起一个与公益诉讼理念相契合的公益诉讼费用分担方式。     

Bayesian analysis of human movement curves

Summary.  We consider the Bayesian analysis of human movement data, where the subjects perform various reaching tasks. A set of markers is placed on each subject and a system of cameras records the three-dimensional Cartesian co-ordinates of the markers during the reaching movement. It is of interest to describe the mean and variability of the curves that are traced by the markers during one reaching movement, and to identify any differences due to covariates. We propose a methodology based on a hierarchical Bayesian model for the curves. An important part of the method is to obtain identifiable features of the movement so that different curves can be compared after temporal warping. We consider four landmarks and a set of equally spaced pseudolandmarks are located in between. We demonstrate that the algorithm works well in locating the landmarks, and shape analysis techniques are used to describe the posterior distribution of the mean curve. A feature of this type of data is that some parts of the movement data may be missing—the Bayesian methodology is easily adapted to cope with this situation.     

房地产泡沫的相关研究综述

文章对房地产泡沫领域的相关研究文献进行了统一的梳理和评论,介绍了究竟什么是泡沫和房地产泡沫,房地产泡沫的程度如何去测量和检定,房地产泡沫是如何形成的,房地产泡沫与宏观经济等经济变量的关系,在此基础上对研究的总体结论进行了概况,同时指出了相关文献的研究局限性,给出了该领域今后的主要研究方向和研究展望。     

中国共产党在瑞金时期的民主法制建设

文章主要就中国共产党在瑞金时期的民主法制建设进行了分析和研究。认为瑞金时期中国共产党的民主法制建设在我国法制建设史上有着重要意义。