流动人口的人力资本禀赋效应及其代际差异

招工难、找工难的现象隐藏着一个重要的经济心理学效应--禀赋效应,即个体出让某物品估价高于得到此物品愿意支付价格的现象。调查结果显示,70%的被访者存在人力资本禀赋效应,他们对自己所拥有的受教育程度应得到的收入估价是对同等受教育程度的劳动力的购买价格的2.9倍。人口学、社会和经济特征对于是否会产生人力资本禀赋效应有显著的影响作用,而禀赋效应的强弱主要受到就业身份的影响。雇员愿意出让价格大大高于雇主愿意购买价格就会出现交易困难,导致"招工难、找工难"的现象出现。事实上,雇员月工资与雇主愿意购买价格非常接近,雇员只能被迫降低愿意出让价格,以适应社会,摆脱"找工难"的困境。第一代流动人口比第二代流动人口的人力资本禀赋效应感更强。与第一代相比较,第二代流动人口中的雇员所期望的薪金更接近于雇主所愿意购买的价格。     

经济开放、城市化水平与城乡收入差距——基于中国省际面板数据的经验研究

本文首先分析了经济开放、城市化水平对城乡收入差距的影响机制,然后利用我国1995~2008年的省际面板数据,采用系统广义矩方法进行实证分析。研究结果显示:城市化水平是缩小我国城乡收入差距的重要因素;经济开放在总体上扩大了城乡收入差距,但存在区域的差异性,即它显著地加剧了我国沿海地区的收入差距而对内陆地区却起到缩小的作用,入世以来经济开放对我国整体收入差距的扩大效应有所缓和;但如果考虑经济开放对城市化水平的影响,则经济开放度的提高会在一定程度上抑制我国城乡收入差距的扩大。     

中国区域财政公共服务支出地区差距的度量及分解:1995～2010

文章采用1995～2010年中国财政公共服务支出数据,测度和勾勒出分税制改革实施以来中国财政公共服务支出的空间非均衡分布特征。分析了财政公共服务支出规模、力度和增加值的地区差距,并运用泰尔指数对财政公共服务支出地区差距变化的区域构成以及区域间和区域内差距的变化过程进行比较分析。研究指出:国家财政公共服务政策应着力于缩小落后地区与东部地区的差距;建立以公共服务产出为导向的转移支付制度;加强区域间公共服务支出的协调发展,以缩小不断扩大的区域间差距。     

旋律的荡漾——试析冰波童话《钟声》的话语时间调控

本文运用现代叙事学的时间范畴理论,分析冰波的童话<钟声>独特的叙事话语结构,并揭示其抒情旋律的成因.     

Nonparametric modeling of the gap time in recurrent event data

Recurrent event data arise in many biomedical and engineering studies when failure events can occur repeatedly over time for each study subject. In this article, we are interested in nonparametric estimation of the hazard function for gap time. A penalized likelihood model is proposed to estimate the hazard as a function of both gap time and covariate. Method for smoothing parameter selection is developed from subject-wise cross-validation. Confidence intervals for the hazard function are derived using the Bayes model of the penalized likelihood. An eigenvalue analysis establishes the asymptotic convergence rates of the relevant estimates. Empirical studies are performed to evaluate various aspects of the method. The proposed technique is demonstrated through an application to the well-known bladder tumor cancer data.     

'INFORMATION SOCIETY' AS THEORY OR IDEOLOGY: A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE IN TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE INFORMATION AGE

This paper argues that the concept of Information Society fails as theory because it is internally incoherent and unsupported by evidence. Its current popularity within policy discourse can only be understood ideologically. In particular it is argued that one of the drivers of current policy towards higher education is based upon the supposed growth of knowledge work linked to a theory of human capital formation as crucial to international competitiveness and to an explanation of unemployment in terms of a skills gap. The paper goes on to argue that current labour market indicators and research into the skills gap do not support this policy thrust and that a better explanation of the current push towards the creation of virtual universities is the desire to cut educational labour costs rather than to upgrade the economic status of so-called knowledge workers.     

Reliability analysis for gap null gate based on model comparison criterion

The length of the gap is the key factor affecting its reliability. Based on the mechanism of the gap null gate, this paper regards the two endpoint thresholds of the gap length as bivariate random variables and establishes successful response models. Score test statistic is presented to test the correlation coefficient. The DIC criterion is also provided to compare the models. With the experimental data of the gap null gate, we build Probit model and Logit model as the successful response models, and prove that the correlation coefficients in the both models can be regarded as 0. By comparing the DIC value, we find that the Probit model is more suitable to describe the distribution of the endpoint thresholds of the reliability window. Finally, both the point estimation and interval estimation results of the reliability window are given to illustrate the feasibility of the method shown in the paper.     

牢记历史教训谨防社会"急性病"复发

在我们党的历史和新中国成立以后的历史上有过多次沉痛的教训,即屡犯急性病的错误。由于急性病这一顽疾在我们党的机体和国民心理中存在着根深蒂固的病灶,只要条件一具备,这一病症就会复发,给我们的事业造成困难。随着改革的不断深入,社会的深层次矛盾逐渐显露出来,表现为失业职工增多、贫富差距拉大、生态环境恶化、腐败现象蔓延等等。在这种社会背景下,社会的急性病又出现了复发的苗头。主要表现为:(1)在赶超世界强国的心结作用下,靠政府投资拉动GDP的冲动越来越强烈;(2)无视贫富差距演化的客观规律,均贫富、同步富的思潮有所抬头;(3)教育领域招生规模持续快速扩张,学生的培养质量显著下降;(4)科研领域的急功近利盛行,科研活动、科研成果考核机制与评奖机制越来越趋向短平快,等等。     

不同产出缺口界定与估算的新方法：一个结构性表述

文章采用结构方程方法,通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型对效率产出缺口、自然律产出缺口以及基于劳动力市场的GGL产出缺口进行了估算,并在此基础上比较了基于结构方程方法估算的产出缺口与基于单变量或单方程方法估算的产出缺口。研究发现,由于结构方程方法完整的反映出变量之间相互作用的机制,进而使得对于产出缺口的估算而言,结构方程方法可能优于单变量或单方程方法。     

社会安全阀机制与贫富差距调适

当前,我国贫富差距较大已是一客观不争的社会事实。社会安全阀机制则起着调适贫富差距的作用,从而缓解了贫富差距所可能导致的利益和社会冲突,维持和促进了社会的稳定与发展。研究立足于贫富差距较大的客观现实,着重对现有社会安全阀机制进行分析,并指出在健全和完善相应社会安全阀机制的基础上消除较大的贫富差距。