Auditors' Assessment of Management's Disposition: An Attributional Analysis*

Auditors' assessment of management's dispositions presumably affects their subsequent judgments. However, little is known about the process by which auditors infer characteristics of management. This paper proposes the theory of correspondent inferences [25] as a framework for examining auditors' assessment of management's dispositions; the model is tested in a laboratory experiment using experienced audit managers. The results are consistent with the proposed theoretical framework. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Fading Frames: Data Presentation and Framing Effects*

This article describes three experiments that investigate the impact of data presentation on framing, which is the differential evaluation of objectively equivalent information given different frames of reference. The experiments were designed to vary the amount of information and the format of presentation (tables versus graphs) provided to the decision maker to gain an understanding of the mechanism underlying framing. The inferred information model proposed by Johnson and Levin [11] is utilized to explain the results of the three experiments in terms of the redistribution of weights attached by the decision makers to the attributes of the prospective outcomes. The results of the three experiments indicate that framing effects are observed only when the presentation of data facilitates the shifting of weights among the attributes of the available alternatives. The results further indicate that framing is eliminated as more information is displayed. However, presentation of additional information does not eliminate framing when a graphical format is utilized. Finally, no framing effects are observed when uneven amounts of information are used to describe two alternatives in the same decision task.     

试析中国古代的"天地人"观念

天、地、人是古代中华民族对宇宙整体的总的看法,是研讨一切具体事物所共通使用的理论原点。古人从天文现象、气候更迭、天气变化等“天”象中观察到“时”的变化,从地形地貌、植被物产、位置环境等“地”貌中发现对自然资源的利用,从人禽的二重化、圣凡二重化、性情二重化中明确了“人”的行为准则、道德操守、价值判断。就认识对象而言,“天地人”是整体的、系统的;就认识过程而言,是从天→地→人的以大观小、从整体到局部的认识模式;在“天地人”整体内比较而言,人居于主导地位。     

Testing Prospect Theory in a Deterministic Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Environment*

Prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky [7] is tested in a deterministic multiple criteria decision-making context. In two experiments conducted in classroom settings subjects made pairwise preference comparisons of condominiums for sale. The results of the experiments indicate that the traditional value model did not explain the subjects' revealed preferences as well as the prospect model. We conclude that prospect theory is a reasonable model of choice for many individuals in such a context.     

The experiences of privately practising midwives in Australia who have been reported to the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency: A qualitative study

BackgroundIn Australia the majority of homebirths are attended by privately practising midwives (PPMs). In recent years PPMs have been increasingly reported to the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA) mostly by other health professionals.Purposeto explore the experiences of PPMs in Australia who have been reported to the AHPRA.MethodsA qualitative interpretive approach, employing in-depth interviews with eight PPMs was undertaken and analysed using thematic analysis. A feminist theoretical framework was used to underpin the research.ResultsThe majority of reports made to AHPRA occurred when midwives supported women who chose care considered outside the recommended Australian College of Midwives (ACM) Consultation and Referral Guidelines. During data analysis an overarching theme emerged, “Caught between women and the system”, which described the participants’ feelings of working as a PPM in Australia. There were six themes and several sub-themes: The suppression of midwifery, A flawed system, Lack of support, Devastation on so many levels, Making changes in the aftermath and Walking a tight rope forever. The findings from this study reveal that midwives who are under investigation suffer from emotional and psychological distress. Understanding the effects of the process of investigation is important to improve the quality of professional and personal support available to PPMs who are reported to AHPRA and to streamline processes.ConclusionIt is becoming increasingly difficult for PPMs to support the wishes and needs of individual women and also meet the requirements of the regulators, as well as the increasingly risk averse health service.     

Cognitive Fit: A Theory-Based Analysis of the Graphs Versus Tables Literature*

A considerable amount of research has been conducted over a long period of time into the effects of graphical and tabular representations on decision-making performance. To date, however, the literature appears to have arrived at few conclusions with regard to the performance of the two representations. This paper addresses these issues by presenting a theory, based on information processing theory, to explain under what circumstances one representation outperforms the other. The fundamental aspects of the theory are: (1) although graphical and tabular representations may contain the same information, they present that information in fundamentally different ways; graphical representations emphasize spatial information, while tables emphasize symbolic information; (2) tasks can be divided into two types, spatial and symbolic, based on the type of information that facilitates their solution; (3) performance on a task will be enhanced when there is a cognitive fit (match) between the information emphasized in the representation type and that required by the task type; that is, when graphs support spatial tasks and when tables support symbolic tasks; (4) the processes or strategies problem solvers use are the crucial elements of cognitive fit since they provide the link between representation and task; the processes identified here are perceptual and analytical; (5) so long as there is a complete fit of representation, processes, and task type, each representation will lead to both quicker and more accurate problem solving. The theory is validated by its success in explaining the results of published studies that examine the performance of graphical and tabular representations in decision making.     

Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.     

A new infinitely divisible discrete distribution with applications to count data modeling

A new discrete distribution involving geometric and discrete Pareto as special cases is introduced. The distribution possesses many interesting properties like decreasing hazard rate, zero vertex uni-modality, over-dispersion, infinite divisibility and compound Poisson representation, which makes the proposed distribution well suited for count data modeling. Other issues including closure property under minima, comparison of its distribution tail with other distributions via actuarial indices are discussed. The method of proportion and maximum likelihood method are presented for parameter estimation. Finally the performance of the proposed distribution over other classical and newly proposed infinitely divisible distributions are discussed.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.