Temporal prediction of future state occupation in a multistate model from high-dimensional baseline covariates via pseudo-value regression

In many complex diseases such as cancer, a patient undergoes various disease stages before reaching a terminal state (say disease free or death). This fits a multistate model framework where a prognosis may be equivalent to predicting the state occupation at a future time t. With the advent of high-throughput genomic and proteomic assays, a clinician may intent to use such high-dimensional covariates in making better prediction of state occupation. In this article, we offer a practical solution to this problem by combining a useful technique, called pseudo-value (PV) regression, with a latent factor or a penalized regression method such as the partial least squares (PLS) or the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), or their variants. We explore the predictive performances of these combinations in various high-dimensional settings via extensive simulation studies. Overall, this strategy works fairly well provided the models are tuned properly. Overall, the PLS turns out to be slightly better than LASSO in most settings investigated by us, for the purpose of temporal prediction of future state occupation. We illustrate the utility of these PV-based high-dimensional regression methods using a lung cancer data set where we use the patients’ baseline gene expression values.     

President Barack Obama's image repair on HealthCare.gov

Obama's health care initiative HealthCare.gov went live on October 1, 2013. It was plagued with problems. Furthermore, the President promised that if people liked their current health care plan, they could keep it. People were shocked when they started to receive cancelation notices from their insurance companies. Republicans seized on the opportunity to savage the president, his administration, and his health care program. Obama's approval rating was anemic and on November 7, he was interviewed by Chuck Todd and on November 14, 2013, Obama held a press conference to try to mend his image. His defense relied heavily on mortification, corrective action, and minimization but also contained instances of defeasibility, bolstering, and transcendence. This essay uses Image Repair theory to analyze and evaluate the President's image repair effort.     

人类学视野下的权力与文化表达——关于非暴力支配的一些表现形式

依权力的支配大略可以分为两种形式,即使用暴力或强力的权力以及使用非暴力的权力。前者更多是跟战争、强力以及暴力紧密相连,而后者则是在文明化社会之后的一种权力表达方式,是采用一种符号、象征以及让渡等等形式来达成的一种支配形式,在不同的社会中,其表现形式各有不同,但是这些都可以称之为是一种文化的表达。     

台湾大学生身体意象知觉落差研究

拥有正向的身体意象才易维持身心健康,对台湾大学生身体意象知觉落差的现状研究发现:四成的大学生存在身体意象知觉落差;性别、身心状况、学习满意度对大学生身体意象知觉落差有显著影响。身体意象是重要的公共与教育议题,了解影响大学生身体意象知觉落差因素,不仅有助于个人的自我正确认知,也有助于学校防治策略的制定。     

网游青少年:网络负面形象的建构与实证

网络游戏已经成为青少年的一种普遍娱乐方式,而网络新闻在公众对网游青少年玩家的认识过程中起着重要作用,它们经常从不同角度来报道并放大具有典型意义的网游青少年玩家个案,以此建构网游青少年玩家的形象并引导人们对该群体的印象存储。通过对11年来人民网与新浪网中相关报道的内容分析,发现网络新闻对网游青少年玩家媒介形象构建时出现偏差,形成对网游青少年玩家污名化形象建构的影响。     

主流政治大片的政治审美与国家形象的构建

近年来,以《建国大业》、《建党伟业》等为主导的影片迅速形成了主流政治大片的新类型。但不得不指出,这种类型倚重"数星星"的娱乐议题,割裂了审美认知与情感关系,导致认知功能的丧失,难以有效地阐释政治观念及其价值,反过来也影响到审美情感的丰富性与深刻性,政治叙事缺乏感染力。我们认为,当下电影的高票房与社会议题的设置关系密切。主流政治大片需要从当下政治实践与国际政治的两个维度上,运用包括领袖人物与政治观念等多义与复杂性,设置吸引大众关注、积极参与的政治议题,从而塑造出一个理性的国家形象。     

民族儿童文学:民族精神的独特呈现和体现——2010、2011少数民族儿童文学略论

在全球化语境中,承扬民族文化、张扬民族精神,是民族儿童文学创作面临的大问题。民族儿童文学作家常以一种世所罕有的审美敏感去表现边地的自然万物,或以魔幻性叙事来构筑民族儿童审美的形象体系,或以发展的、理想的视角展示当下民族儿童的现实,都表达出生命的另一种绚丽和辉煌、生活的另一种奇异和深邃、生性的另一种善良和刚强,使民族精神在民族儿童文学中得到独特的呈现和体现。     

‘Family money’ and ‘business money’: bankrupt entrepreneurs in a ‘question situation’

This paper addresses the question of bankruptcy and honesty in local contexts, and especially the problem of the bankrupt small businessman in conveying ‘honesty’ to the local community. Studying bankrupt entrepreneurs, the analysis explores a tacit dialogue between the failed businessmen and the small town communities where they live and work. The bankrupts respond to their seemingly mistrustful surroundings by demonstrating their respect for the dividing line between two social categories of money: ‘company money’ and ‘family money’. This discursive resource expresses business ethics and respectability, both essential for the bankrupt entrepreneur to start another business in the local community. The empirical material in the study consists of interviews with 22 businessmen who had created small businesses and experienced at least one bankruptcy, half of them in small towns. The entrepreneurs were found through court records and word of mouth. Interviews were conducted by the author and by graduate students from the Department of Sociology in Lund. All interviews were tape-recorded and transcribed verbatim.     

Sex and Gender Implications in Cases of Elder Abuse

This paper focuses on caregiving which has failed. Although little attention has been given to the role of sex and gender in elder abuse, an analysis of 77 cases of elder abuse seen in the Detroit area in 1981 revealed that both factors play a role in generating elder abuse, neglect, or exploitation, or in determining its form. Gender issues included: patterns of spouse abuse in old a e; gender differences in the types of abuse/neglect/exploitation wfich were perpetrated; gender concerns of the abuser which generate abuse; and sex or gender discrimination as a type of abuse of the elderly. Sexual factors observed included: parent-child incest; marital rape in old age; and problems of sexual malfunction which helped to generate the abuse. Suggestions for improved professional identification and management of elder abuse cases are made.     

古代文学中的竹林

竹子是中国古代文学最重要的植物题材之一，竹林又是竹子题材文学的重要表现对象。我国古代竹林资源丰富，相关文学创作源远流长，作品繁多，展现了古代文人丰富的观赏经验和审美情趣。竹林较为亲近人居，丛生竹林结丛而生，散生竹林上合下疏。不同季节、气候、环境条件下的竹林景象具有不同的美感。竹坞、竹坡、竹溪、竹径等意境幽雅，成了文人最乐于吟赏的风景。