The use of evaluation models for decision making: Application to the community anti-crime program

Evaluations are typically designed to provide useful information, including measures of program effectiveness. Although this information is intended to be useful, the general literature on evaluations suggests that instances in which evaluations are explicitly used for decision making are rare. This article discusses the use of decision-theoretic evaluation models, and their applicability in practice as well as in principle. A case study is presented from the evaluation of LEAA's Community Anti-Crime Program, in which a decision analysis based on a decision-theoretic evaluation model influenced a programmatic decision which arose during the conduct of the evaluation.     

The international trade in automobiles: Explaining short-run changes in the import share of the United States market, 1979–1981

This paper examines the underlying causes for the rapid rise of the import share of the U.S. automobile market in the 1979 to 1981 time frame. Using data on the import share by state for the 1975–1979 period, a logit model is developed explaining movements in the import share. The principal purpose is to demonstrate that the rapid growth of the import share was due to a unique set of short-run factors such as constrained U.S. small car production capacity and exceptional consumer preference for fuel efficient automobiles. The sensitivity of the import share to changes in different factors is examined. The article concludes that U.S. policy makers concerned with the long-run viability of the U.S. automobile industry should discriminate between changes in import penetration caused by short-run factors and those caused by a secular deterioration of the U.S. comparative advantage in automobile production.     

Aspects of a new world development strategy I: Financial transfers from developed to developing nations

A global econometric model is used in this study to evaluate the effect of a grant-in-aid transfer from the developed market economies to the non-oil-exporting developing economies. Two alternative financing schemes, expenditure diversion and direct taxation, are supposed in the paying countries so that the government current amount balance is not disturbed. The results suggest that the developing countries would benefit greatly from the implementation of any transfer scheme. The developed countries, under either of the assumptions of this study, would not realize any substantial benefits from offering such a payment.     

“Dirty” research in “real” places: A practitioner's guide to program evaluation in the human services

Traditional models of evaluation have often fallen short of their potential for improving services to clients. Using illustrations from a study of client turnover in group homes for troubled youth, this paper discusses practical ways to increase the impact of program evaluation in human service settings.