人力资本投资的社会收益估算

人力资本的社会收益是各国政治家、经济学家和发展战略家都十分关注的问题,但由于人力资本的不可触摸性、投资和收益的长期性,及其数据支撑的缺乏性,我国并未对此问题展开卓有成效的实证研究。本文从人力资本价值估算的成本法和收入法寻找到新的数据来源支撑人力资本社会收益估算,并将内部收益率法和净现值结合,修正了内部收益率法,提出了"差分回报"计算人力资本社会收益的方法。估算了1995-2009年全国及代表性省份的人力资本收益总额及其收益率水平。结果表明,15年来全国及各省份人力资本投资收益额只有小幅增长,而收益率则呈下降趋势,全国及代表省份人力资本投资收益额与GDP之比的下降幅度更为显著。     

上证50ETF隐含高阶矩风险对股票收益的预测研究

高阶矩是刻画资产收益涨跌非对称和“尖峰厚尾”现象中不可忽略的系统性风险。本文基于我国上证50ETF期权数据采用无模型方法估计隐含波动率、隐含偏度和隐含峰度,通过自回归滑动平均模型提取期权隐含高阶矩新息(Innovations),将它们作为高阶矩风险的度量,探讨其对股票收益的预测作用。研究表明:①在控制换手率和股息率等变量后,隐含波动率对于上证50指数和市场未来4周的超额收益有显著负向的预测作用;②隐含偏度新息越低,上证50指数和市场的超额收益越高,这种预测能力在未来1周和未来4周均显著,但随着时间的推移,隐含偏度新息的预测能力逐渐下降;③隐含偏度风险对于我国股市横截面收益也有显著的解释能力,投资组合在隐含偏度风险因子上的风险暴露越大即因子载荷值越大,则未来的收益会越低;④隐含峰度新息总体上与股票收益负相关。     

收入、预期寿命和社会养老保险收入再分配效应

本文在考虑职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者寿命存在异质性的情况下，通过内部收益率的计算考察典型不同缴费基数参保者之间的养老金收入再分配效应。首先根据省级宏观截面数据估计了职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者退休时的平均余命，再据此分别计算和比较不同参保群体的内部收益率。 研究发现职工基本养老保险制度总体上呈现微弱的正向收入再分配效应。虽然低缴费基数参保者内部收益率略高于中、高缴费基数参保职工，但其内部收益率因相对较短的寿命而大大降低。这也提醒政策制定者在研究制定延迟退休、社会养老保险全国统筹等政策时需要充分考虑参保职工内部不同群体间的平均预期寿命差别，对低收入参保者予以特别关注。     

新乡村工业化中的生产组织方式创新——兼论新产业区的起源和演进

新产业区是20世纪70年代以来新乡村工业化的成功模式。与传统工业化过程中形成的以追求规模和范围经济为目的的大规模生产方式不同,新产业区强调柔性生产和持续创新。因而,新产业区在本质上是生产组织方式的创新,是对大规模生产的替代。新产业区的兴起和发展打破了传统发展经济学城乡二元结构和乡村发展依附城市的观点,表明20世纪70年代以来的新乡村工业化和乡村经济发展并不依赖城市,而是内生或相对独立的,拥有自身独特的发展路径。在新乡村工业化过程中,乡村经济的自组织所呈现出的报酬递增和路径依赖,构成了新产业区形成和发展的基本特征和内在机制。对新产业区起源和演进的历史条件和内在机制的理论分析,将有助于我们更深入地思考中国新农村建设中的相关问题。     

Generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion and continuous increasing process*

This article mainly considers a new class of anticipated BSDEs driven by Brownian motion and continuous increasing process, which are called generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations(GABSDEs). We first give the form of GABSDEs. Then, existence and uniqueness result for GABSDEs is established as well as a comparison theorem is obtained under the certain assumptions. At last, we give an application about the duality between SDDEs and GABSDEs.     

Asymptotic distributions in affiliation networks with an increasing sequence

A central limit theorem for a linear combination of all the maximum likelihood estimators with an increasing dimension for affiliation networks has been established. Simulation studies are provided to illustrate the asymptotic results.     

The rise of Trump and an agenda for regulatory reform

The arrival of Trump in the White House does not augur well for the long-run prospects of the US economy. The protectionism that is gathering steam under his presidency may yield some short-term gains, but at the detriment of the long-run. Examining the discontent among ordinary voters that brought Trump to power, this paper argues that this should be treated as an opportunity for a major regulatory reform. With the advance of digital technology, we have increasing returns to scale, and that, in turn, is making our antitrust laws backfire and hurt the well-being of ordinary people, thereby sowing discontent. The paper builds a simple model to illustrate this and makes the case for revoking the older antitrust laws and replacing them with some simple profit-sharing rules at the level of the firm, and the economy.     

中国企业渠道联盟关系影响因素研究

渠道联盟被认为是渠道关系中最高、最好的形式。学术界对渠道联盟关系影响因素的研究主要集中在承诺、信任、沟通与合作等方面。本文实证研究了影响中国企业渠道联盟关系的若干因素及其影响程度,特别是探讨了私人关系和行政因素等的影响程度。     

从农村劳动力受教育程度分析农民增收问题

以人力资本理论为依据 ,通过分析农村劳动力受教育程度与农民收入之间的关系 ,说明提高农民收入的关键不全在于农业制度的变迁与物力资本的投入 ,核心挑战是农村人力资源的开发。     

Social networks and getting a home: Do contacts matter?

Under what conditions does one find a new home via one's social network? Does the way in which a house is acquired affect how satisfied one is with the house? We formulate hypotheses on the characteristics of personal networks, the context of the move and their effect on those who attain a house through informal channels and how satisfied they are with the new home. We use a representative dataset from the Netherlands (the Survey of the Social Networks of the Dutch, SSND, n = 1007) to test our arguments. Our results show that buyers with more diverse social networks and renters with larger social networks are more likely to find their home via social contacts. However, finding a home through an informal channel does not enhance their satisfaction with the house that is found.