Bayes Analysis and Comparison of Accelerated Weibull and Accelerated Birnbaum–Saunders Models

Several models are proposed in the literature for modeling fatigue data resulting from materials subject to cyclic stress and strain. Accelerated Weibull and accelerated Birnbaum–Saunders distributions are most commonly used models. Whereas the accelerated Weibull model is easier compared to accelerated Birnbaum–Saunders, it fails to represent the situation equally well. The present article focuses on Bayes analysis of the two models and provides a comparison based on some important Bayesian tools. Model compatibility study using predictive simulation ideas is preceded by the said comparison. Throughout, the posterior simulations are carried out by Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure.     

The derivation of a brief Student Nurse Stress Index

The lack of an adequate measure of perceived sources of stress for student nurses led to the construction of the Student Nurse Stress Index (SNSI). Responses from 235 first-year student nurses to 35 items from the Beck and Srivastava Stress Inventory (Beck, and Srivastava, 1991), and 15 new items, were subjected to exploratory factor analysis using principal components analysis and oblimin rotation. A reliable 22-variable solution with a simple oblique structure including Academic load, Clinical sources, Interface worries, and Personal problems factors was obtained in this initial sample, and confirmed at an exploratory level in a further independent validation sample of 188 first-year students. Confirmatory factor analysis established the four-factor model in the first sample, but required that three variables load onto more than one factor. This more complex four-factor model was confirmed using independent data from the validation sample, and the total invariance of factor loadings and factor covariances of this more complex four-factor model was established in both data sets simultaneously using multi-sample techniques. The SNSI shows cross-sample factor congruence, good internal reliabilities, and concurrent and discriminant validity across a range of reporting conditions.     

福田赳夫内阁的“全方位外交”及其中日缔约实践

福田赳夫内阁积极奉行＂全方位外交＂,一方面积极谋求与苏联发展关系;另一方面力图缔结中日和平友好条约而不至于开罪苏联,超然于中苏对立之外。这种在日苏及日中之间开展＂全方位外交＂的举措终因苏联方面缺乏应有诚意而失败。福田转而在美国的支持下将推动中日缔约作为自己任内的重要课题。实践证明,福田富有理想主义色彩的＂全方位外交＂在美苏对峙的冷战格局下很难真正贯彻落实。     

Sensitivity Analysis for Critical Control Points Determination and Uncertainty Analysis to Link FSO and Process Criteria: Application to Listeria monocytogenes in Soft Cheese Made from Pasteurized Milk

Microbiological food safety is an important economic and health issue in the context of globalization and presents food business operators with new challenges in providing safe foods. The hazard analysis and critical control point approach involve identifying the main steps in food processing and the physical and chemical parameters that have an impact on the safety of foods. In the risk‐based approach, as defined in the Codex Alimentarius, controlling these parameters in such a way that the final products meet a food safety objective (FSO), fixed by the competent authorities, is a big challenge and of great interest to the food business operators. Process risk models, issued from the quantitative microbiological risk assessment framework, provide useful tools in this respect. We propose a methodology, called multivariate factor mapping (MFM), for establishing a link between process parameters and compliance with a FSO. For a stochastic and dynamic process risk model of in soft cheese made from pasteurized milk with many uncertain inputs, multivariate sensitivity analysis and MFM are combined to (i) identify the critical control points (CCPs) for throughout the food chain and (ii) compute the critical limits of the most influential process parameters, located at the CCPs, with regard to the specific process implemented in the model. Due to certain forms of interaction among parameters, the results show some new possibilities for the management of microbiological hazards when a FSO is specified.     

文化因素与翻译——从跨文化角度看《红楼梦》中习语的翻译

习语是语言的精华与核心,具有鲜明的文化特色.习语翻译是翻译中所遇到的最棘手的问题之一.本文拟从习语的文化特异性这一角度来探讨<红楼梦>中习语的不同翻译方法,旨在通过对具体译例的剖析,来探讨习语翻译过程中应该如何恰当地处理文化因素的问题.     

A structured variational learning approach for switching latent factor models

A data-driven approach for modeling volatility dynamics and co-movements in financial markets is introduced. Special emphasis is given to multivariate conditionally heteroscedastic factor models in which the volatilities of the latent factors depend on their past values, and the parameters are driven by regime switching in a latent state variable. We propose an innovative indirect estimation method based on the generalized EM algorithm principle combined with a structured variational approach that can handle models with large cross-sectional dimensions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and preliminary experiments with financial data show promising results.     

Factor Multivariate Stochastic Volatility via Wishart Processes

This paper proposes a high dimensional factor multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) model in which factor covariance matrices are driven by Wishart random processes. The framework allows for unrestricted specification of intertemporal sensitivities, which can capture the persistence in volatilities, kurtosis in returns, and correlation breakdowns and contagion effects in volatilities. The factor structure allows addressing high dimensional setups used in portfolio analysis and risk management, as well as modeling conditional means and conditional variances within the model framework. Owing to the complexity of the model, we perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation from the posterior distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of the estimation algorithm. We illustrate our model on a data set that includes 88 individual equity returns and the two Fama-French size and value factors. With this application, we demonstrate the ability of the model to address high dimensional applications suitable for asset allocation, risk management, and asset pricing.     

对发挥图书资料系统人员子系统功能的分析

通过对图书资料人员子系统因素的分析,就充分发挥其功能提出了具体实施措施,以求发挥图书资料系统人员的主观能动性,提高图书资料系统的整体效能。     

环境会计要素核算探析

随着环境污染的日益严重,人们已经意识到必须将环境资源以及与之相关的问题纳入有关的会计核算体系。环境会计要素就是对环境会计对象的进一步分类。环境会计主要包括环境资产、环境负债、环境费用和环境收益等四大要素。     

基于双因素理论的民办高职院校教师薪酬激励性研究——以运城职业技术学院为例

民办高职院校实现跨越式发展必须在教学上凸显特色,发挥教师的积极性和创造性是民办高职院校迫切需要解决的问题之一。绩效薪酬在激励教师积极性方面可以发挥重要作用,设计具有强激励性的薪酬体系对民办高职院校发展具有现实意义。