An online estimation scheme for a Hull–White model with HMM-driven parameters

This paper considers the implementation of a mean-reverting interest rate model with Markov-modulated parameters. Hidden Markov model filtering techniques in Elliott (1994, Automatica, 30:1399–1408) and Elliott et al. (1995, Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control. Springer, New York) are employed to obtain optimal estimates of the model parameters via recursive filters of auxiliary quantities of the observation process. Algorithms are developed and implemented on a financial dataset of 30-day Canadian Treasury bill yields. We also provide standard errors for the model parameter estimates. Our analysis shows that within the dataset and period studied, a model with two regimes is sufficient to describe the interest rate dynamics on the basis of very small prediction errors and the Akaike information criterion.     

侵财型犯罪中被害人权益救济的冲突与完善——以法院审判与执行实践为视角

对于侵财型犯罪而言,犯罪人的直接目的是通过侵犯被害人的财产而获得经济利益,被害人在此类犯罪中遭受的损失主要体现在经济利益上。现行刑法和刑事诉讼法对侵财型犯罪中被害人民事权益保护的立法,主要是围绕着追缴赃款赃物以及赔偿经济损失而展开。然而,在诸多现实案件中,被害人的合法财产往往难以通过法院判决追缴、责令退赔或另行提起民事诉讼途径获得有效救济,凸显出我国法律的内在缺陷。针对当前侵财型犯罪中被害人民事权益的保护现状,应分析其法律根源,提出完善对策,以期构建有效的刑事被害人民事权益救济制度。     

高职学生的阅读现状分析

以某高职学院图书馆图书流通及阅读倾向为例进行分析，探索高职学生的阅读兴趣和阅读目的，分析其产生的主客观原因，提出改进高职院校图书馆阅读指导工作的建议。     

Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility

This paper focuses on interest rate models with regime switching and extends previous nonlinear threshold models by relaxing the assumption of a fixed number of regimes. Instead we suggest automatic model determination through Bayesian inference via the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Moreover, we allow the thresholds in the volatility to be driven not only by the interest rate but also by other economic factors. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to interest rates and other economic factors of the American economy.     

欧共体竞争法适用共同利益服务原则的实践

《欧共体条约》的目标是实现在共同体内货物、人员、服务和资本的无障碍流动,必然要求肃清市场内外的限制性做法,包括迫使经济性公共服务引入竞争机制。“共同利益服务”原则已成为共同体意义上重要的公共服务原则,同时也是欧洲模式社会的一个主要组成部分。如今,某些共同经济利益服务已经通过适用欧盟竞争政策而属于市场开放的领域,但是它并没有包含所有的共同利益服务,特别是非经济服务是被排除的。这一点体现在欧共体委员会和欧共体法院的司法实践中。     

Communicating Research to Policymakers

This piece offers suggestions based on some things we expected to learn and from some things we did not expect to learn about communicating research to congressional policymakers. Some of these are insider discoveries from working as a professional staff member for a joint committee of the US Senate and the US House of Representatives. Other things we learned came largely as surprises from attempts to provide basic information and issue awareness about socioeconomic conditions in the Southern Black Belt directly to the Congress as well as indirectly through public interest and grassroots groups. One of the surprising discoveries, working professionally both on the inside of Congress and on the outside as social scientists, is how well social interaction actually works. And there were other surprises as well. This article is based on an August 16 panel presentation by the first author at the 2003 meeting of the American Sociological Association in Atlanta. The panel was organized by Larry Burmeister of the University of Kentucky. Material written in the first person singular in the first section of this article, “From the Inside,” is from the first author’s experiences. Later, portions of the text beginning with the subhead, “On the Outside,” and stated in the first person plural are by both authors.     

严羽诗学之“气象”与“兴趣”

严羽为纠正宋代诗学发展的弊端,主张学习盛唐诗歌的创作经验。他视诗歌为有灵性的鲜活生命,认为"兴趣"是诗歌的内在生命,而"气象"则是其外在表现形式。基于此,严羽提出,由于盛唐之人诗歌创作有"兴趣",故其诗有"盛唐气象";而宋人创作由于没有"兴趣",故其诗无此气象。     

论公共利益的认定原则

公共利益属于法律保留事项,依法认定是公共利益认定的首要原则,我国需要通过立法进一步明确公共利益的范围和边界,以明确执法和司法。正当性原则是公共利益的合理性标准,公共利益应当在合理的范围内进行,公共利益只能在没有其他备选替代方案时才能牺牲个人利益。公共利益的认定是一个价值判断过程,公共利益是相对的长远利益和重大利益。当公共利益的实现需要其他利益作出限制或牺牲时,应当把这种限制或牺牲限制在最小范围,符合比例原则。如果追求公共利益时损害了个人利益,就应当给予充分的公平的补偿。公共利益的界定以及认定应当以公开、公平和公正的法治程序为基础,以确保公共利益符合大多数人的要求。     

新世纪中国对中东产油国的石油外交

石油需求在中国能源发展中以不以人们意志为转移的方式增长。中国的石油外交也成为新世纪中国外交的主旋律。中东石油在中国海外油源中占有特殊地位，中国非常重视发展与中东产油国的能源合作关系。国家利益是国际关系中驱动国家互动的最基本要素，中国石油外交最重要的考量亦是国家利益，中国对中东产油国的石油外交具有政治与经济利益相辅相成、互动互利的特点。石油对中国经济持续高速增长极为重要，“石油经济”成为中国经济持续增长的关键，由此凸现了石油外交对中国经济发展的重要性。     

周作人与"江户情趣"--兼与永井荷风比较

周作人思想尽管来源庞杂,但日本传统文化对其有很大的影响,他的"趣味"的养成与日本"江户情趣"有很大的关系.他的"颓废"思想有西方唯美思潮的影响,也有佛道的影子.而对日本平安时代"物哀"与"谐趣"的文学传统体悟与吸纳也是不可忽略的重要组成部分,反映出同为东方的中日在吸收西方文化时某些共同的倾向.从东西比较文学的立场看,周作人和永井荷风代表西方唯美主义文学在中日的最初景观.