Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach

In this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S,s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, we find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data.     

科技指标预测方法研究--以广州市R&D经费投入预测为例

随着我国科技创新步伐的日益加快,不论是科技管理者还是研究者,都希望尽快获得能够监测、评价或制定科技计划与政策的关键指标的预测信息。本文以广州市R&D经费投入为例,研究科技指标的预测方法,建立了广州市R&D经费内部支出的年度增长率预测模型、时间序列法预测模型、相关关系法预测模型、分执行部门预测模型,以及以上预测模型的组合预测模型。根据两个年度的预测结果显示,本文的方法具有可行性和推广价值。     

Investor preferences for positive social externalities and state-owned enterprises’ facilitated access to capital

State-ownership of commercial companies exists around the world, and it is important to understand its effect on financing and investment decisions. Empirically, firms that are partially state-owned (SOE) usually profit from easier access to capital. We propose a novel explanation for this: investors’ social preferences can affect capital allocation if SOEs are perceived as socially beneficial. In support of this we found that people attribute social benefits more to SOEs than to private firms, and their propensity to invest depends on this attitude. Further, in an incentivized modified stochastic public goods game, participants invested in risky options with positive externalities even when the aggregate of private return and externality was lower than the return of an investment option with only private returns. For the case of the EU, we discuss alternative explanations such as state guarantees and political lending in the light of regulations of state aid. We conclude that even if these regulations prohibit direct or indirect state aid for SOEs, state-ownership can affect capital allocation through investors’ social preferences.     

风险投资与中小企业技术创新

我国中小企业发展面临许多困难 ,其中一个主要障碍是中小企业在技术创新活动中资金短缺 ,且技术创新的风险大。中小企业利用传统融资方式来寻求资金十分困难 ,而风险投资能较好地解决这个融资难题 ,促进技术创新。本文主要针对如何应用风险投资促进中小企业发展进行初步探讨 ,并提出相应的对策与建议     

外商直接投资、技术外溢与我国经济增长

我国自改革开放以来,外商直接投资(FDI)发展迅速。2002年我国首次超过美国成为全球引进外资最多的国家,2004年吸引外资又创新高,首次突破600亿美元大关,仍居世界第一。外商直接投资作为国际技术外溢的主要渠道之一,是实现我国技术进步的重要途径。为此,我们应继续坚持对外开放政策,采取各项措施充分发挥我国FDI的技术外溢效应,以促进我国国民经济稳定、持续地发展。