Tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment

This paper considers the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment. The price of risky investment is modeled by a geometric Lévy process, while claims are modeled by a one-sided linear process whose innovations further obeying a so-called upper tail asymptotic independence. When the innovations are heavy tailed, we derive some uniform asymptotic formulas. The results show that the linear dependence has significant impact on the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims but the upper tail asymptotic independence is negligible.     

农业高校社会实践活动发展模式的研究

根据农业高校人才培养的目标和要求,结合农科大学生的思想特点和成长规律,在总结我校社会实践教育活动成功经验的基础上,初步提出了农业高校社会实践活动发展模式,即:面向“三农”服务,把握实践教育的方向性;开展“三期”教育,注重实践教育的层次性;坚持“三化”要求,强化实践教育的实效性。     

Effect of perceived cost on judgments regarding the efficacy of investment

Three experiments examined the effect of costs associated with investments on the judgments of the causal effectiveness of those investments, and on the type of information utilised when making those judgements. Using operant conditioning technology, in an experimental analogue of making economic investments, it was found that greater costs associated with an investment reduced the judgement about the effectiveness of the response (Experiment 1). Greater investment costs tended to bias the subject toward using information integrated over a longer period of time; whereas low costs tended to produce judgements made on the basis of the conditions prevailing immediately prior to the return being acquired (Experiments 1–3). The effect of cost was modulated by the subjects' own financial background. The same absolute cost being treated as “greater” by those from less wealthy backgrounds compared to those from more affluent backgrounds (Experiments 2 and 3). These results suggest that as well as the nature of the schedule relating investment to return, the perceived cost of the investment determines the manner in which it is judged with respect to its efficacy.     

Investment communities: Behavioral attitudes and economic dynamics

Using a real-world data set encompassing the daily portfolio holdings and exposures of complex investment funds, we derive a set of quantitative attributes to capture essential behavioral features of fund managers. We find the existence and stability of three investment attitudes, namely the conservative, the reactive, and the pro-active profiles, defining communities that respond differently when facing external shocks. The conservative community has behavioral similarities that tend to decrease due to external shocks, the reactive community members greatly increase their activity level especially during turmoil phases, while delegated investors in the pro-active community are more resilient to turbulence and counterbalance the impact of the events by adjusting their portfolio exposures in advance. We show that exogenous shocks only temporarily perturb the behavioral traits of the communities which then go back to their original states once the distress is embedded.     

实物期权方法在投资中的应用

实物期权方法为投资决策提供了一种更完善的分析框架。本文通过和传统的NPV模型、决策树方法做对比,介绍了实物期权的应用范围和计量方法。     

约旦社会保障制度改革及其启示

和世界上大多数国家一样,约旦也面临着越来越严重的人口老龄化问题。为此,约旦政府在社会保障领域实施了三项重要的改革措施。一是参数式改革,即不改变现有制度的性质,只是调整具体的参数;二是整合碎片化制度改革,把公务员和军事人员纳入全国统一的社保制度中来;三是未雨绸缪,积极开展公共预筹积累制改革,融资模式由现收现付制逐步过渡到部分积累制,不断完善投资管理体制。这三项改革不仅符合世界银行提倡的改革模式,而且这三项改革措施之间的相互配合与协调,有力地推动了约旦社保制度的改革和发展,具有极强的借鉴意义。     

Women’s experiences of decision-making and attitudes in relation to induction of labour: A survey study

BackgroundRates of induction of labour have been increasing globally to up to one in three pregnancies in many high-income countries. Although guidelines around induction, and strength of the underlying evidence, vary considerably by indication, shared decision-making is increasingly recognised as key. The aim of this study was to identify women’s mode of birth preferences and experiences of shared decision-making for induction of labour.MethodAn antenatal survey of women booked for an induction at eight Sydney hospitals was conducted. A bespoke questionnaire was created assessing women’s demographics, indication for induction, pregnancy model of care, initial birth preferences, and their experience of the decision-making process.ResultsOf 189 survey respondents (58% nulliparous), major reported reasons for induction included prolonged pregnancy (38%), diabetes (25%), and suspected fetal growth restriction (8%). Most respondents (72%) had hoped to labour spontaneously. Major findings included 19% of women not feeling like they had a choice about induction of labour, 26% not feeling adequately informed (or uncertain if informed), 17% not being given alternatives, and 30% not receiving any written information on induction of labour. Qualitative responses highlight a desire of women to be more actively involved in decision-making.ConclusionA substantial minority of women did not feel adequately informed or prepared, and indicated they were not given alternatives to induction. Suggested improvements include for face-to-face discussions to be supplemented with written information, and for shared decision-making interventions, such as the introduction of decision aids and training, to be implemented and evaluated.     

The value of being precise

This study investigates how individuals assess imprecise information. We focus on two essential dimensions of decision under uncertainty, outcomes and probabilities, and their respective precision. We believe the precision of information is highly relevant in the investment setting, as reflected in the well-known “home (familiarity) bias”, and the outcome and probability dimensions, separately or jointly, may affect investors’ knowledge of uncertainty and perceived risk of the investment options, and subsequently affect investors’ choices. To test this conjecture, we conducted three experiments. Our results show that 1) participants demonstrate a pattern of preference for precision and aversion of extreme vagueness and associate vagueness with higher perceived risk and lower investment (experiments one and two); 2) participants prefer vague outcome information to vague probability information (experiment two); 3) familiarity indeed positively affects the precision of estimated values, but this association is stronger for the outcome dimension than for probabilities (experiment three). Our results confirm that precision in information, especially in the outcome dimension has an impact on investors’ resource allocation choices.     

Why We Should Refocus Our Efforts to Improve Care in Nursing Homes

No abstract available for this article.     

基于拉斯韦尔模式的高校生命教育寻译

高校生命教育是集生命教育、生存教育和生活教育的有机统一,利用拉斯韦尔5W模型可以对高校生命教育传播的各个环节进行认真的分析和梳理,从传播者、信息、媒介、受传者、成效等5个方面进行阐述,以期对促进高校学生关爱生命,感悟生命意义,激发生命潜能,提升生命价值有所裨益。