The duration of unemployment in Russia

This paper uses longitudinal survey data to assess factors affecting the duration of unemployment in Russia. We examine four types of marginalised labour force participants, according to ILO guidelines and survey responses, and we estimate duration models for each type. It turns out that the sets of characteristics with the strongest effects on the duration are remarkably similar across the different unemployment definitions and model specifications. Therefore, despite the formidable practical measurement problems, problematic groups of individuals can actually be identified. Received: 27 January 1999/Accepted: 27 January 2000     

尉犁地名和柔然源流考

“尉犁”(包括天山北麓的“于娄”、“于赖”)地名源于(J)yrgir部落之名。“柔然”(虫柔蠕,蠕蠕,芮芮,茹茹)、“於尼讙”、“预龙”、“诸洛固”等部落联合体(政权)或部落名是(J)yrgir的不同音译形式。汉宣帝时该部曾移居焉耆及尉犁等地。相对稳定的社会环境,为该部的发展奠定了基础。在汉地先进的铁制农具、兵器、相关的制度文化以及塔里木盆地土著印欧语居民文化的影响下,亦加快了其社会发展进程。这是该部在两汉以后能得以崛起的重要原因。柔然是突厥语族群中最早信仰佛教的部落,柔然汗国还使用汉语年号,表明该部虽远在西域,却受到了汉文化的深刻影响。     

Considerations on group-wise identical designs for linear mixed models

We consider a general class of mixed models, where the individual parameter vector is composed of a linear function of the population parameter vector plus an individual random effects vector. The linear function can vary for the different individuals. We show that the search for optimal designs for the estimation of the population parameter vector can be restricted to the class of group-wise identical designs, i.e., for each of the groups defined by the different linear functions only one individual elementary design has to be optimized. A way to apply the result to non-linear mixed models is described.     

Optimal discrimination designs for exponential regression models

We investigate optimal designs for discriminating between exponential regression models of different complexity, which are widely used in the biological sciences; see, e.g., Landaw [1995. Robust sampling designs for compartmental models under large prior eigenvalue uncertainties. Math. Comput. Biomed. Appl. 181–187] or Gibaldi and Perrier [1982. Pharmacokinetics. Marcel Dekker, New York]. We discuss different approaches for the construction of appropriate optimality criteria, and find sharper upper bounds on the number of support points of locally optimal discrimination designs than those given by Caratheodory's Theorem. These results greatly facilitate the numerical construction of optimal designs. Various examples of optimal designs are then presented and compared to different other designs. Moreover, to protect the experiment against misspecifications of the nonlinear model parameters, we adapt the design criteria such that the resulting designs are robust with respect to such misspecifications and, again, provide several examples, which demonstrate the advantages of our approach.     

FROM MAIZE TO HAZE: AGRICULTURAL SHOCKS AND THE GROWTH OF THE MEXICAN DRUG SECTOR

Understanding how economic incentives affect illegal drug production is essential for crafting policies in response to the international drug trade. Policymakers typically face a choice between two strategies: targeting criminal groups via law enforcement, and offering producers incentives to engage in alternate activities. Yet, little is known about how the returns to alternate legal activities affect drug supply. We contribute to this literature by examining how shocks to legal commodity prices affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the Mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in US maize‐growing regions, as well as exports of other major maize producers. Using data on over 2200 municipios spanning 1990–2010, we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios more climatically suited to growing maize. We also find impacts on downstream drug‐trade outcomes, including drug cartel operations and killings perpetrated by these groups. Our findings demonstrate that maize price changes contributed to the burgeoning drug trade in Mexico, and point to the violent consequences of an expanding drug sector.     

Unemployment Insurance and Underemployment

Should unemployment insurance (UI) systems provide coverage for underemployed job seekers? Based on a statistical analysis of Norwegian unemployment spells, we conclude that the answer to this question is yes. Allowing insured job seekers to retain partial UI benefits during periods of insufficient part‐time work not only reduces UI expenditures during the part‐time work period, but it also unambiguously reduces the time until a regular self‐supporting job is found. Probable explanations are that even small temporary part‐time jobs provide access to useful vacancy information and that such jobs are used by employers as a screening device when hiring from the unemployment pool.     

后现象学思想解惑--唐·伊德技术哲学的实用主义与解释学维度

用胡塞尔先验现象学的立场来理解作为技术哲学的后现象学,这是对唐·伊德思想的一种误解。由于在悬置和变更等基本概念上与胡塞尔现象学出入甚大,后现象学只能算是一种修正主义的现象学;在哲学观和技术观上,后现象学更多地是汲取了杜威实用主义的观点;利科的解释学及对文本概念的广义理解,决定了后现象学必然是一种以探究人工物的意义为旨归的物的解释学。在理解伊德技术哲学时,实用主义和解释学是两个重要、但被忽略的维度。     

Emergence of entrepreneurial behaviour: The role of age-based self-image

This study introduces an individual’s perception of their entrepreneurial potential in terms of their age (age-based self-image) to complement chronological age as a predictor of entrepreneurial behaviour. The principal hypothesis is that a positive age-based self-image enhances the likelihood of individuals turning their intention to start a business into actual behaviour. The empirical analysis based on data collected on the general adult population of Finland in 2011 and 2012 (n = 672) supports this hypothesis. The analysis further shows that this positive effect is independent of the individual’s chronological age, and it is thus applicable to both age groups that are under-represented in entrepreneurship: ‘youngsters’ and ‘seniors’. Promoting the development of a positive age-based self-image is a prospective policy option for fostering entrepreneurship among younger and older age groups. More in-depth research, especially concerning the antecedents of positive age-based self-image, is required for the effectiveness of such policy interventions.     

“十三五”时期中国经济社会发展面临的环境与发展新要求

“十三五”时期是中国现代化建设过程中的关键时期,然而展望“十三五”时期,中国经济社会发展面临着国内外环境复杂多变的考验:一方面面临世界经济增长不确定性增强、全球生产组织方式剧烈变化、全球投资和贸易规则酝酿新变化、大宗商品价格持续降低等国际环境;另一方面,面临经济增长换挡、产业转型压力紧迫、人口问题突出、产能过剩严重、资源环境压力大等国内环境。同时,随着国内外环境的变化,“十三五”时期中国多数原有的增长点将出现动力不足,但是也要看到当前中国经济发展过程中正孕育着一些新的增长点,关键是在发展战略、思路和具体的政策等方面做出调整。     

艾略特的诗歌创作与批评理论的互动——论《J·阿尔弗雷德·普罗弗洛克的情歌》

《普鲁弗洛克的情歌》将新古典主义与现代西方社会生活的题材相结合,运用"非个性化"理论、客观对应物理论、意象、象征等手法展现出现代人空虚的精神世界,同时也是艾略特批评理论的文本示范。通过该诗对艾略特理论和诗歌文本进行同步分析,为艾略特研究提供一个较新的视角。