Lone mothers: a review

This paper briefly reviews recent empirical studies on the economic behaviour of lone mothers concentrating on the duration of lone motherhood, on labour supply, and on the determinants of their welfare participation. We start out by sketching some stylised facts about lone-mother-families in various countries. With this background we give a guided tour through the empirical literature followed by a summary of the policy implications of the results presented. JEL classification: H53, I38, J22 Received November 9, 1994 / Accepted March 12, 1996     

服务业开放、国民收入追赶和跨越中等收入陷阱

从服务业开放视角研究国民收入追赶和跨越中等收入陷阱问题。研究结果表明:仅从服务业规模维度的开放未必对国民收入追赶有明显的促进作用,更应该注重开放质量和结构;新兴市场国家的服务贸易占贸易总额比重增加对国民收入追赶指数有着显著的促进作用;新兴市场国家提升高技术服务进出口比重将有利于提高国民收入追赶指数;服务贸易占GDP比重通过提升全要素生产率(TFP)促进国民收入追赶。因此,我国作为新兴市场国家,既要强调扩大服务业开放对国民收入追赶和跨越中等收入陷阱的积极作用,更要重视优化服务业开放结构和提高服务业开放质量,不断提升服务贸易中高技术服务进出口占比,充分发挥全要素生产率对国民收入追赶的促进作用。     

Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.     

高校教师年终一次性奖金的纳税筹划

完善税收体制建设既是税收公平原则的体现,又是调节收入分配手段的保障.文章基于不违反税法规定前提下,结合高校教师薪酬发放特点,分析年终一次性奖金不同发放方式所产生的税负,指出合理的纳税筹划方法,为减轻高校教师税收负担,实现收益最大化提供有力保障.     

西方市场经济发展中消费伦理的转型及启示——从萨伊到凯恩斯

在西方市场经济的发展历程中,作为不同发展阶段的两位具有代表性的经济学家,萨伊和凯恩斯在消费伦理问题上分歧明显。前者崇尚节俭,反对奢侈;后者则反对节俭,主张扩大消费。他们的分歧归根结蒂与各自所处的历史时代和所面临的现实任务不同直接有关。西方消费伦理发展演变的规律,可以给我们今天的消费伦理建设一些有益的启示。     

关于大学生兼职的调查与建议

当前,大学生兼职已日益成为一种潮流和趋势,但在兼职市场并不成熟的情况下,许多大学生一不小心就落入兼职的"美丽"陷阱之中。鉴于此,针对大学生兼职这个主题,在部分高校展开了调查。通过分析统计,有针对性地提出大学生兼职预防"美丽"陷阱的建议与对策,以增强大学生自我保护的意识。     

A Bayesian structural-change analysis via the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo and Gibbs sampler

In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the multiple structural change-points in a level and the trend when the number of change-points is unknown. Our formulation of the structural-change model involves a binary discrete variable that indicates the structural change. The determination of the number and the form of structural changes are considered as a model selection issue in Bayesian structural-change analysis. We apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm, to this structural-change model selection issue. SAMC effectively functions for the complex structural-change model estimation, since it prevents entrapment in local posterior mode. The estimation of the model parameters in each regime is made using the Gibbs sampler after each change-point is detected. The performance of our proposed method has been investigated on simulated and real data sets, a long time series of US real gross domestic product, US uses of force between 1870 and 1994 and 1-year time series of temperature in Seoul, South Korea.     

美国第二轮量化宽松货币政策影响分析

随着金融危机的不断蔓延和影响的逐渐深化,美国采取第二轮量化宽松货币政策来稳定和刺激经济,此种非常规货币政策将对全球经济产生深远影响,对作为全球第二大经济体的中国也将产生不利影响。针对第二轮量化宽松货币政策可能对中国经济产生的不利影响,从第二轮量化宽松政策的启动入手,通过分析第二轮量化宽松货币政策所采取的主要措施及其传导机制,在分析量化宽松货币政策对全球经济影响的基础上,提出中国的对策,以期为中国相关经济政策的制定提供一定的参考。     

Mathematical investigations of the escape from the Malthusian trap

We present a simulation model that synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the way population growth and economic development were intertwined. The non‐linear stochastic model consists of a system of equations whose dynamics culminate in an industrial revolution after hundreds of iterations. The Industrial Revolution can thus be conceptualized as a permanent “escape”; from the Malthusian trap that occurs once the economy is capable of permanently sustaining an ever growing population. We investigate the conditions for such an escape and their sensitivity to the parameters of the model. This is done in an attempt to understand why some economies might have had difficulties escaping from the Malthusian trap (in contrast to the European experience in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries). Our results show that the likelihood of an escape is sensitive to the savings rate and to the output elasticities of the two sectors of the economy. When not in a subsistence crisis, the chances that an escape will occur increase for larger values of the ratio of the savings rate to the growth rate of the population. The chances of an escape also increase substantially for larger values of the output elasticities of labor.