Consumer bankruptcy and default: The role of individual social capital

In this paper, we empirically assess the role of individual social capital on personal bankruptcy and default outcomes in the consumer credit market. After controlling for a borrower’s risk score, debt, income, wealth, and legal and economic environments, we find that default/bankruptcy risk rises and then falls over the lifecycle, while a borrower who owns a home or is married has a lower risk of default/bankruptcy. Moreover, a borrower who migrates 190 miles from his “state of birth” is 17% more likely to default and 15% more likely to file for bankruptcy, while a borrower who continues to live in his state of birth is 14% and 10% less likely to default and file for bankruptcy, respectively. A borrower who moves to a rural area is 9% and 7% less likely to default and declare bankruptcy, respectively. We also find that measures of social networks, norms, and cooperation and trust (i.e., aggregate social capital) are inversely related to consumer bankruptcy.     

Social Worker Supervision with Novice and Experienced Workers

ABSTRACT

This empirical study compares the perceptions of social work supervisors about the needs of novice and experienced social work supervisees. The respondents, 211 supervisors in public welfare agencies in Israel, provided novice workers more supervisory time in 6 of the 8 content areas examined: administrative matters; inspection and control; inter-organizational communication; client issues; job-related tensions; and personal tensions. Projects in the community were given priority to experienced rather than novice supervisees, and professional development was regarded by the supervisors as equally important for novice and experienced workers. Comparisons were also made between the actual and preferred supervisory time allotment.     

Social Support

The purpose of this two year study was to understand the provision of social support to recently divorced women with children from the perspective of the primary support person. Each of 157 women identified her primary support. Friends, boyfriends, and parents were the most common sources of support. Two-thirds of the women changed their primary support person over the study period. The primary supports were interviewed three times over two years and asked to describe the support they provided and the reciprocity of their relationship. Eleven types of support were described with availing, direct support, distancing, and valuing identified most often. Availing was presented as the most helpful type of support and intruding, the least helpful. Reciprocity was perceived as slightly better than moderate.     

Controlled Direct and Mediated Effects: Definition,Identification and Bounds

Abstract. Results are given which provide bounds for controlled direct effects when nounmeasured confounding assumptions required for the identification of these effects do not hold. Previous results concerning bounds for controlled direct effects rely on monotonicity relationships between the treatment, mediator and the outcome themselves; the results presented in this article instead assume that monotonicity relationships hold between the unmeasured confounding variable or variables and the treatment, mediator and outcome. Whereas prior results give bounds that contain the null hypothesis of no direct effect, the results presented here will in many instances yield bounds that do not contain the null hypothesis of no direct effect. For contexts in which a set of variables intercepts all paths between a treatment and an outcome, it is possible to provide a definition for a controlled mediated effect. We discuss the identification of these controlled mediated effects; the bounds for controlled direct effects are applicable also to controlled mediated effects. An example is given to illustrate how the results in the article can be used to draw inferences about direct and mediated effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding variables.     

“Talking It Out”: A Computer-Based Mediation Process for Adolescents

SUMMARY

This article describes the development of a multimedia mediation program (“Talking It Out”) that helps young adolescents resolve conflict peacefully. The development and content are described, together with pilot test data from 16 pairs of disputing students. These case studies provide evidence of the popularity and effectiveness of computer-based mediation.     

加强和改进思想政治工作

思想政治工作是我们党的一大优势。认真探索在新形势下加强和改进党的思想政治工作 ,是摆在我们面前的一项十分重要的任务。新时期加强和改进党的思想政治工作 ,必须坚持江泽民同志“七一”讲话的精神 ;坚持把继承性与创新性、系统性与开放性、全局性与重点性、前瞻性与现实性等方面有机地结合起来 ,思想政治工作才能具有更多的主动性和方向性     

光度法同时测定磷和硅的研究

用钼蓝法分别测定磷和硅的含量多有报导［１］［２］［３］，但用该法对其进行同时测定未见报导．本文探讨了用钼蓝法同时测定磷和硅，确定了其测定条件．本法具有简便、快速、不需特殊试剂等特点，可用于水等试样中磷和硅的同时测定．     

The Transport System and Society’s Metabolism in the UK

This paper analyses the interrelation between the transport system and measures of resource consumption such as material and energy consumption over a 60-year period (1937–1997) in the UK. Non-motorized transport and time consumption for mobility are estimated in addition to conventional measures of transport. During the period analyzed, the UK population grew by 20% while transport of goods and persons increased more than threefold and material and energy consumption almost doubled. The transport intensity of domestic material input (DMI) doubled to 300 ton-kilometers (tkm) per ton of DMI while the transport intensity of domestic energy consumption (DEC) doubled to 20 tkm per gigajoule (GJ) of DEC. Thus, while the material and energy intensity of GDP declined significantly, a well-established trend in many advanced countries, the transport intensity of materials and energy consumption rose. These findings suggest a close link between transport, economic development, and long-term structural transformations. In the case of personal transport, a rebound effect was also observed: whereas the average speed of transport has greatly increased, the average number of hours per day devoted to personal transport has not declined.     

灰色动态预测模型在货币供应量预测中的应用

在对金融系统中货币供应量的预测进行相关研究的基础上,介绍了符合金融系统预测规律的灰色系统动态预测法,并根据中国货币供应量的实际数据进行了实证的预测检验。结果显示,这种方法简单,不需要借助于其他任何时间序列数据,需要数据量少,预测精确度高,对于近期预测尤其准确,也可进行中长期预测;实证预测结果也符合我国金融系统中货币供应量预测的实际。     

The Quality of Stakeholder-Based Decisions

The increased use of stakeholder processes in environmental decision making has raised concerns about the quality of decisions these processes produce. Some claim that stakeholders make inadequate use of scientific information and analysis and are all too ready to sacrifice technical quality for political expediency. This article looks to the case study record to examine the quality of the decisions from stakeholder-based processes. The data for the analysis come from a "case survey," in which researchers coded information from 239 published case studies of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision making. These cases reflect a diversity of planning, management, and implementation activities carried out by environmental and natural resource agencies at many levels of government. Overall, the case-study record suggests that there should be little concern that stakeholder processes are resulting in low-quality decisions. The majority of cases contain evidence of stakeholders improving decisions over the status quo; adding new information, ideas, and analysis; and having adequate access to technical and scientific resources. Indeed, data suggest that it is the more intensive stakeholder processes--precisely those that have aroused recent concern--that are more likely to result in higher-quality decisions.