农民工与城市发展

80年代中后期,随着经济改革和经济结构的变化,中国大批的农村剩余劳动力开始自发地、大规模地、跨地区流向大中城市,形成一股无法抗拒的"民工潮"。大批的农民工进城就业对促进城市的发展,尤其是经济发展起到了重要作用,但同时也给城市的管理带来了压力。如何全面正确的认识农民工问题,引导他们在城市合理有序的流动已成为亟待解决的问题。     

Relations Between Alphabetized Name Order and Nomination Counts in Peer Nomination Measures

Peer nominations, a central method for measuring peer relationships in developmental research, typically involve asking children or adolescents to choose peers who fit various criteria from an alphabetized roster of classmates or grade‐mates. Although such measures have been used for decades, very little research has investigated the effects of alphabetical name order on the number of nominations received by peers. This study collected peer nominations for 20 items among 607 eighth grade participants in two schools. Regression analyses showed that earlier name order significantly predicted higher nomination counts for eight of the items, and explained over 5 percent of the variance in four affective variables (friendship, acceptance, acquaintanceship, and received liking). Across variables, name order effects were negatively correlated with internal reliability of nominations, implying that order effects may be related to the consensus of the peer group. Name order also had a minimal effect on inter‐correlations among a subset of variables. Implications and concrete recommendations for controlling and reducing name order effects in future research are discussed.     

试探主述位在翻译中的迁移效果

阅读好的翻译作品,常常会碰到这样的现象,译文如实而准确地传达了原文的意旨,使译文和原文的读者都能得到相同的审美感受,而译文与原文的句子成分却非绝对的一一对应,往往会形成交替对应关系,这种对应关系体现为时而部分对应整体,时而整体对应部分。这种现象的产生是由于译者在翻译过程中运用了迁移的原因。笔者拟分五个部分探讨主述位在翻译中的迁移效果。     

The relationship between neighborhood racial concentration and verbal ability: An investigation using the institutional resources model

Relatively few studies examine the relationship between racial residential segregation and educational or cognitive outcomes. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and the institutional resources model of neighborhood effects, I investigate one account of how macrostructural arrangements between race, neighborhood segregation, and school quality interact to produce inequalities in test scores. Consistent with the institutional resources model, results suggest that school quality varies across neighborhoods based, in part, on their degree of racial concentration. Indeed, school quality and other school characteristics mediate the relationship between racial concentration and verbal skills, particularly among black males. These findings have implications not only for inequalities in cognitive skills among blacks across residential space, but also between blacks and whites given high levels of residential segregation in the United States. In sum, findings illustrate yet another way in which residential segregation contributes to, and not merely reflects, racial inequalities.     

The contagion of democracy through international networks

Work on democratization typically considers the diffusion of democracy through interstate partnerships. However, such partnerships constitute complex networks that scholars have yet to fully explore as vectors for the spread of democracy. We develop a network theory of democratization which characterizes these networks as epistemic communities that influence elites’ attitudes towards favorable regime types. Our theory predicts, and our empirical strategy confirms, that direct and indirect ties in the alliance network are vectors for democratization. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we find that direct influence is only transmitted through the defensive alliance network and find evidence of higher-order effects.     

继承与创新：沃尔兹新现实主义理论定位再探讨

肯尼思·沃尔兹的新现实主义是国际政治研究的里程碑,但学界对这一里程碑含义的理解可能存在偏差。这一理论不是国际政治研究科学化的起点,而是对古典现实主义核心论点的历史性再诠释。沃尔兹和其他古典现实主义者一样认为人的理性能力存在限度,相信实力对比是进行利益划分的客观依据,劝告政治家遵行责任伦理。古典现实主义者与沃尔兹之间的差异并没有想象的大,古典现实主义者也强调安全,他们发现国际政治中存在着安全困境,追求过多权力会导致不安全,国家追求权力应适可而止。古典现实主义者还发现世界政治中因果关系非常复杂,事件的结果绝少和当事者的动机一致,“事与愿违”是政治中的常态,这与沃尔兹强调的“系统效应”相似。新古典现实主义者试图将沃尔兹的理论进一步科学化,他们希望结合结构变量与单元变量,提出更科学的理论解释、预测国家的行为,这不仅误解了沃尔兹,也背离了现实主义传统。     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

兼并效应与产品覆盖策略

在行业寡头垄断竞争中, 引入产品覆盖策略竞争的变量, 把企业兼并时的竞争假定为两 个阶段两种变量: 先是产品覆盖策略竞争, 后是产品产量竞争, 并设计了一个描述这种兼并竞 争的模型. 在此基础上, 分析了参与和未参与兼并的企业的产品覆盖策略变化对各企业利润和 价格的影响, 在一定程度上解释了兼并悖论. 我们赞成适度的兼并控制政策, 但在经济萧条时 期可适当放宽.     

Residential Building Codes,Affordability, and Health Protection: A Risk-Tradeoff Approach

Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through income and stock effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%) each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world case studies of proposed code changes.