Ecological inference techniques: an empirical evaluation using data describing gender and voter turnout at New Zealand elections, 1893–1919

Summary.  The difference, if any, between men's and women's voting patterns is of particular interest to historians of gender and politics. For elections that were held before the introduction of opinion surveying in the 1940s, little data are available with which to estimate such differences. We apply six methods for ecological inference to estimate men's and women's voting rates in New Zealand (NZ), 1893–1919. NZ is an interesting case-study, since it was the first self-governing country where women could vote. Furthermore, NZ officials recorded the voting rates of men and women at elections, making it possible to compare estimates produced by methods for ecological inference with known true values, thus testing the efficacy of different methods for ecological inference for this data set. We find that the most popular methods for ecological inference, namely Goodman's ecological regression and King's parametric method, give poor estimates, as does the much debated neighbourhood method. However, King's non-parametric method, Chambers and Steel's semiparametric method and the Steel, Beh and Chambers homogeneous approach all gave good estimates that were close to the known values, with the homogeneous approach performing best overall. The success of these methods in this example suggests that ecological inference may be a viable option when investigating gender and voting. Moreover, researchers using ecological inference in other fields may do well to consider a range of statistical methods. This work is a significant NZ contribution to historical politics and the first quantitative contribution, in the area of NZ gender and politics.     

Mobilisation through early activation and school engagement – the story from Scotland

This paper explores the experience of 16–17 year olds participating in the Scottish independence referendum and discusses whether it can be seen as positive or negative considering civic attitudes and participation. Using data from two comprehensive and representative surveys of 14–17 year olds, it engages empirically with claims about young people's alleged political (dis-)interest and provides qualifications for commonly believed stories of young people as mere recipients of information given to them by parents and teachers.

The paper develops a positive view of young people's engagement in the referendum process and suggests that inputs from parents and schools actually have distinguishable effects on young people, who do not simply ‘follow the lead’ of others uncritically. The analyses suggest that the discussion of political issues in the classroom (rather than the simple delivery of civics-style classes per se) may act as a positive factor in the political socialisation of young people, but suggests that further research is required to examine these effects beyond the specific context of the Scottish independence referendum in particular in relation to questions about whether reducing the voting age to 16 could be expected to generally lead to positive outcomes.     

是尴尬的合作者，还是娴熟的行动者——浅析欧盟理事会决议规则进化中英国的应对策略

英国往往被称为是欧盟中“尴尬的伙伴”,而在欧盟一体化进程中表现消极。英国主要的担忧是过多地参与欧盟一体化会损害其主权。欧盟理事会决议规则进化过程充分显示了成员国向超国家的欧盟机构让渡主权。纵观英国在这一过程中的表现,可以看出其早已意识到了主权削弱的必然趋势,并且在为谋取欧盟进一步深化中更有利位置的实践中显示了自己娴熟的外交斡旋技巧。     

家族控制、两权分离与债务期限结构选择——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文利用我国2002-2008年家族控制上市公司数据,在控制相关变量下,从债务代理成本视角经验检查在中国债权人法律保护较弱的背景中,终极控制股东(家族)是否影响公司债务期限结构。本文提供的经验证据表明,终极控制股东显著影响公司债务期限结构。具体而言:(1)终极控制股东的控制权越大,公司具有显著低的长期债务水平;(2)终极控制股东的控制权与现金流量权分离度与公司债务期限显著负相关;(3)终极控制股东在上市公司中指派高管与公司债务期限显著负相关。     

公司选举中累积投票制的经济法分析

从经济法学角度分析了从美国引进的累积投票制，在我国实际应用中存在不能保护小股东的利益、效益甚微的现象。结合目前我国的经济发展和公司法中的效率理论，应该合理运用小股东权利益受损后的事后救济、市场自发调节等机制，才能最大程度维护股东和公司利益。     

既有住宅增设电梯的规范冲突与选择适用

既有住宅增设电梯本是一项方便居民生活的政策,然而其实施过程中却往往导致邻里关系趋于紧张。此类纠纷源于各地政府出台的指导意见对增设电梯的投票主体及适用规则未形成一致,对损害补偿不均亦未予回应。既有住宅增设电梯的投票主体应限缩于存在利害关系的本栋业主间,投票比例的确定应在《物权法》第76条和第97条之间进行衡量。选择附条件的“双三分之二比例”更有利于破解现实难题,损害补偿则应体现业主间的差异化需求,如此方能保护少数业主的权益。     

Voting and the Scottish referendum: perspectives of people with intellectual disabilities and their family and paid carers

Voting is a human right for every citizen yet many people with intellectual disabilities do not vote or have little support to exercise their right to vote. This article explores views on the wider aspects of voting against the backdrop of the Scottish referendum using focus groups involving people with intellectual disabilities (n = 12), family carers (n = 7) and paid carers (n = 5). Findings revealed that people with intellectual disabilities had similar concerns to the general population about the referendum. Regarding voting, all groups identified the need to discuss issues and for practical support and accessible information to ensure informed choices were made when voting.     

The Undeserving Rich: “Moral Values” and the White Working Class1

White working‐class citizens who vote for the Republican Party have been fodder for much political discussion and speculation recently, and a debate has arisen about the role that “moral values” played in the political decision making of this segment of voters. In this article, we defend a version of the moral values claim. We show that although the Republicans’ policies are unpopular, they are bundled with an overarching moral framework that is extremely resonant to this set of voters, and we use in‐depth interviews to uncover this framework. A key feature of this framework, on which in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush scored high and John Kerry scored low, is the appropriate attitude to wealth, which serves as an indicator for a candidate’s general moral philosophy and as a heuristic about whether the candidate will govern with working‐class voters’ interests in mind. National Election Studies data support the argument that this was a key influence on the voting decision in 2004, even controlling for voters’ partisan identification.     

论股份有限公司中小股东利益之保护

随着市场经济的发展和深入,股份有限公司的缺点也日益暴露。其中最为明显的缺陷就是大多数中小股东由于持股份额太小,在公司没有发言权。加之信息的高度不对称,中小股东又缺乏专业的管理知识,其利益很容易受到少数控股股东和经理等高级管理人员的侵害。股份有限公司中小股东权益受到侵害已成为现代股份公司中一种非常普遍的现象。建立完备的法律保障体制,对股份有限公司小股东利益加以有效的保护,已成为当前公司治理中一个非常紧迫的课题。本文拟对该问题加以尝试性的探讨。     

Immigration-related political culture and support for radical right parties

Radical right parties are not equally successful across or within all countries. Most studies have up to now relied on socio-economic, socio-structural and political factors to explain these differences. We examine whether the immigration-related political culture – consisting of integration policies and shared conservative values – in which voters are embedded influences radical right voting. We argue that more exclusive immigration-culture is related to more support for radical right parties. Furthermore, the relationship between immigration attitudes and radical right support is expected to be moderated by immigration-culture. With multilevel regression models using data from the 2011 Swiss Electoral Studies (SELECTS) we compare the effect of immigration-culture in 26 Swiss cantons. We find that cantonal immigration-culture (assessed with integration regimes and shared conservative beliefs) increases radical right support and the effect of individuals' immigration attitude on radical right support is stronger when immigration-culture is exclusive.