美国CRB指数波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对CRB指数波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。     

构建可持续扶贫模式 治理农村返贫顽疾

改革开放以来,中国农村反贫困斗争取得了伟大胜利,但是脱贫人口又返贫的现象一直存在,它已经成为阻碍我国农村扶贫开发进程的顽疾.导致农村返贫现象的主要根源在于"主体、供体、载体"三者发展的不可持续性,因此,构建"主体-供体-载体"三体均衡、三位一体的可持续扶贫模式是实现农村贫困人口持续脱贫与贫困地区持续发展的根本出路.     

论哈克贝利·费恩身上的“堂吉诃德”

马克.吐温塑造的男孩哈克贝利.费恩永远不安现状,永远追求着自由,不自觉地追随了几百年前同样引得人们哗然的堂吉诃德的脚步。堂吉诃德这个荒唐骑士在全世界有着众多前仆后继的追随者。哈克贝利.费恩与堂吉诃德一样,有着矛盾的性格。在他逃离世俗的漫游中,健全的心灵与畸形的意识发生了冲突,他人性中的纯真战胜了世俗的偏见和冷漠,畸形的意识吃了败仗。     

The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden

This study analyzes emigration propensities for natives and immigrants delineating among immigrant emigrants between return and onward migration. Results indicate that emigrants are positively selected in terms of upper education. Well-educated immigrants have a higher probability of leaving for third-country destinations than returning to countries of origin. Predicted age–income profiles for immigrants show that return migrants have higher adjusted mean income levels than non-emigrants up to the age of 40. Onward migrants have lower predicted income levels across the age distribution due to this group’s composition and relatively low employment levels in Sweden. Separate estimations by region of origin indicate that within each group, onward migrants are more positively selected then return migrants in terms of income.

The mixture of left–right truncated normal distributions

This paper introduces the mixture of left–right truncated normal distributions, from the spreads between bid and ask prices, as a statistical model for handle non-normality of asset price returns. It has been proved that there is only one maximum for the likelihood function of the new model.     

Return migration as a ‘family project’: exploring the relationship between family life and the readjustment experiences of highly skilled Austrians

Most research studies on return migration analyse remigration and reintegration as individual projects, without considering the interconnectedness of remigrants with their family members. This article addresses this research gap and seeks to add to our understanding of the role which the family plays in shaping reintegration outcomes through a qualitative analysis of the experiences of highly skilled Austrians who returned, with their co- or inter-ethnic family members, in the last 10 years. Results show that the relationship between family and reintegration is complex. Core family members may act both as constraints and as enablers of readjustment. Partners and children ease reintegration by providing enthusiasm, motivation and emotional support. At the same time, family members may also complicate the reintegration process by increasing the amount of administrative work to be done in order to re-organise family life or by triggering feelings of alienation, when family members face (re)-integration challenges. The reintegration process was also found to have a significant impact on highly skilled returnees’ family life. The problem-solving strategies which returnees develop during their process of reintegration either impede the formation of new families, impact on the structure of existing families or change the division of family work in the household.     

民间视阈下的《红高粱》与《还乡》的女性叙事

莫言和哈代都是民间文化的表述者,他们的小说都展现了民间文化的生命力,在此文化视域下塑造了诸多女性形象,其中以《红高粱》中的凤莲和《还乡》中的游苔莎最为典型。在两人的女性叙事中,既有相同又有差异：首先,他们都描述了女性的本能欲望,但对欲望的态度不同;其次,都描述了女性的反叛,但反叛的基点不同;最后,从两个作家对女性的理想化书写中,深层揭示差异性背后蕴涵的文化意义。     

A股市场冲击下的交易量与收益率特征研究

本文基于高频跳跃非参数识别框架,结合我国证券市场投资者情绪及市场环境,对上证A股市场冲击下的交易量与收益率特征进行研究,从更为微观的角度揭示信息快速融入过程中投资者的反应及市场交易状态和影响因素。研究发现,我国A股市场在市场冲击发生时往往伴随着交易量的大幅增加,冲击发生后交易量存在迅速下降的过程;利好、利空的市场冲击对市场交易量、收益率存在非对称影响,整体来说,投资者对利空消息更敏感,但在不同的市场情绪下投资者对市场冲击存在非理性反应,牛市时投资者倾向于对利空消息反应不足,而在熊市时倾向于对利好消息反应不足。     

当代国际恐怖主义的“宗教动员”

以宗教名义进行社会动员,是当代全球恐怖主义的一个重要特征。宗教动员下的恐怖主义已成为当代恐怖主义的主导势力,并经历了三重路径,且每条路径中都表现出国际“安全阀”遭到双重的破坏和挑战。梳理当代国际恐怖主义因“宗教动员”而泛滥的路径,可以为国际反恐提供某种思路,从而消除恐怖主义进行“宗教动员”的不良后果,并优化良好的宗教发展环境。     

诺贝尔奖关注的文学母题:流亡与回乡

流亡与回乡是近年来诺贝尔奖关注的一个文学母题 ,除去文学的内部因素之外 ,它与 2 0世纪中前期世界性的战争灾难和中后期的政治局势有着密切的关系。流亡是一种与个体或群体现存处境相分离的生活形式、话语形式和精神状态。首先是与生存地域相隔离 ;随之是与精神地域相隔离。流亡的形式可以概括为个人的流亡 ,如高行健 ;民族的流亡 ,如凯尔泰斯 ;殖民主义历史背景下被奴役者的流亡 ,如奈保尔 ;殖民者的流亡 ,如J·M·库切