Simple inference in multinomial and ordered logit

This paper provides some simple methods of interpreting the coefficients in multinomial logit and ordered logit models. These methods are summarized in Propositions concerning the magnitudes, signs, and patterns of partial derivatives of the outcome probabilities with respect to the exogenousvariables. The paper also provides an empirical example illustrating the use of these Propositions.     

大学综合排名竞争策略研究——基于网大（www．netbig．com）大学排行榜的实证分析

关于提升大学综舍排名的竞争策略，可以运用累积Logit模型来研究各评价指标排名对大学综合排名的影响效应，通过提高那些对综合排名影响效应较大的指标排名，能更有效地促进综合排名的提高，从而确定有效的排名竞争策略。利用网大（www．netbig．com）“中国大学排行榜”的排名数据进行实证分析，得出排名越靠前的大学通过提升“声誉”和“学术成果”名次能最有效提升综合排名。而排名越靠后的大学则通过提升“学术资源”和“物资资源”名次能最有效提升综合排名等结论。     

Efficacy of programmes for the unemployed: discrete time modelling of duration data from a matched-comparison study

An evaluation is described of two UK Government programmes for the long-term unemployed in Great Britain, Employment Training and Employment Action, using discrete time hazard modelling of event histories. The study design employed a closely matched comparison group and carefully chosen control variables to minimize the effect of selection bias on conclusions. The effect of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated by using some standard random effect model formulations.     

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From a Laboratory Experiment

We develop a model of labor force status (federal employment, nonfederal employment, unemployment, and out of the labor force) that depends on human capital variables, local labor market conditions, and personal characteristics. According to the estimated model for white non-Hispanic males and females a substantial difference exists between blacks and white non-Hispanics even after correction for the control variables. However, the control variables explain almost all of the difference between Hispanics and white non-Hispanics.     

基于Logit模型的农村居民对零售终端选择行为研究——以福建省为例

随着社会经济的发展,农村地区的零售服务业呈现多元化、立体化的特点。通过访谈和问卷调查方式,收集福建省若干地区农村居民对一般消费品的购买行为,用Logit模型进行数理统计分析,针对农村居民对零售终端选择行为进行定量研究,可以从中发现规律,对优化农村流通体系建设有一定的借鉴意义。     

Decision Making with Uncertain Judgments: A Stochastic Formulation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process*

In the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), priorities are derived via a deterministic method, the eigenvalue decomposition. However, judgments may be subject to error. A stochastic characterization of the pairwise comparison judgment task is provided and statistical models are introduced for deriving the underlying priorities. Specifically, a weighted hierarchical multinomial logit model is used to obtain the priorities. Inference is then conducted from the Bayesian viewpoint using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The stochastic methods are found to give results that are congruent with those of the eigenvector method in matrices of different sizes and different levels of inconsistency. Moreover, inferential statements can be made about the priorities when the stochastic approach is adopted, and these statements may be of considerable value to a decision maker. The methods described are fully compatible with judgments from the standard version of AHP and can be used to construct a stochastic formulation of it.     

农村计划生育与农民生活满意度研究

基于6个省1586户农户的问卷调查数据,运用次序Logit模型,探讨农村计划生育、农村卫生事业、区域环境特征、农民个人特征、家庭特征对农民生活满意度的影响。结果表明,农村计划生育的两个因素中只有是否享受奖扶政策对农民生活满意度有显著影响,是否受过超生惩罚对农民生活满意度没有显著影响,农村卫生事业的两个因素,参加新型合作医疗制度以后看病是否改善和医疗支出负担对农民生活满意度都有显著的影响。根据分析结果提出以下政策建议:在今后的农村公共事业发展中,政府应渐进增加农村公共事业支出比重,进一步完善利益导向政策体系,适当提高奖励扶助标准,加大对农村超生家庭的处罚力度,使惩罚标准与收入及财产相对应。     

教育改善贫困效应的地区异质性研究

教育对于增加收入、改善贫困无疑是一个重要的途径。在目前多维贫困越来越受到重视的情况下,本文在收入贫困和多维贫困两种贫困识别标准下,分析了教育改善贫困的效应在地区之间的异质性,考察了该效应是否受地区经济发展的影响。根据分层LOGIT模型的估计,本文认为地区经济发展水平是发挥教育改善收入贫困效应的重要舞台,对于多维贫困的改善效应则不明显。本文得到的一个重要扶贫政策建议是要发挥教育改善贫困的效应,必须注重精准扶贫与发展地区经济相结合;但仅仅发展经济,不一定能保证教育对多维贫困的改善效应,减轻多维贫困需要更加重视公共产品供给和民生保证。     

对可持续农产品的消费意愿分析

文章利用假设市场评价法,调研了日照市150名消费者对可持续农产品的消费意愿,基于调研资料,建立起Logit模型,分析消费者对可持续农产品消费意愿的影响因素。分析结果表明,在价格合理的情况下,消费者愿意购买可持续农产品;价格对消费者消费可持续农产品的影响是显著的且方向为负;消费者对农业生态环境问题的认知水平和消费者的受教育程度则显著且正向影响着消费者对可持续农产品的消费意愿。     

管理层持股、领导权结构与财务重述

本文以我国2005-2009年间A股市场补充与更正报告中出现"会计差错更正"项目的公司为研究对象,以是否发生财务重述为因变量,采用配对样本分析的Logit回归方法研究了管理层持股、领导权结构与财务重述之间的关系。本研究发现,管理层持股比例与财务重述之间存在显著的U型关系,领导权结构对财务重述没有显著影响,然而管理层持股的利益协同效应(堑壕效应)在两职分离(两职合一)的公司中更容易得到发挥。本研究发展了财务重述、管理层持股以及领导权结构的研究内容,为完善公司治理机制、防范会计错报提供了相应的思路。