OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: A QUANTITATIVE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS

We model an open economy where macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to oil supply shocks, as well as aggregate demand and supply shocks generated domestically and abroad. We use several robust predictions of the model to identify five fundamental shocks underlying the fluctuations of the (real) oil price, the US activity and the global business cycle. The estimates show that supply shocks generated in the global economy explain the largest fraction of the oil price fluctuations, about four times more than canonical oil supply shocks. The correlation between oil prices and the US activity varies with the type of shock.     

COMPETITION AND RELATIONAL CONTRACTS: THE ROLE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AS A DISCIPLINARY DEVICE

Abstract When workers are faced with the threat of unemployment, their relationship with a particular firm becomes valuable. As a result, a worker may comply with the terms of a relational contract that demands high effort even when performance is not enforceable by a third party. But can relational contracts motivate high effort when workers can easily find alternative jobs? We examine how competition for labor affects the emergence of relational contracts and their effectiveness in overcoming moral hazard in the labor market. We show that effective relational contracts do emerge in a market with excess demand for labor. Long‐term relationships turn out to be less frequent when there is excess demand for labor than they are in a market characterized by exogenous unemployment. However, stronger competition for labor does not impair labor market efficiency: higher wages induced by competition lead to higher effort out of concerns for reciprocity.     

The sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme: A case of getting old before getting rich?

This article examines the sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme – the main component in China’s overall old‐age support system. It looks at the sustainability of the programme generally and, in particular, at case studies of two areas (Tianjin municipality and Guangxi province) to highlight both the extent of regional variations and the common challenges facing Chinese policy‐makers. It discusses a number of key issues that should assist policy‐makers to address the challenge of population ageing. It concludes that the challenge facing China is no more severe than that already faced by other countries in Europe and Asia. Moreover, the ageing of the population is not uniform across the regions of China. Consequently, those areas where the demographic shift is more advanced will provide some opportunity for policy experimentation. Given the experience to date of slow progress on various aspects of pension policy reform, the article suggests that it seems unlikely that paradigmatic change will be significant. Nonetheless, the study suggests a range of parametric policy measures that China should consider. The challenge facing China’s policy‐makers is to ensure that China gets old and rich at the same time.     

3G时代第五媒体发展现状及趋势

随着新技术的日新月异,手机不再仅仅是一种通讯工具,更是作为一种媒介引起人们越来越广泛的关注,成为继报纸、广播、电视、网络媒体之后的第五媒体.文章主要以作为第五媒体的手机为研究对象,重点探讨其在3G时代这一特殊背景下的发展现状与问题,并对其发展趋势进行了预测.     

建立在De Bruijn图架构上的三维片上网络设计

提出一种基于De Bruijn图的新型三维片上网络架构方式,利用De Bruijn图直径短、路由简单及容错等特性,实现三维片上网络水平面网络和虚平面网络相结合的分层架构与容错路由算法。利用仿真,在均匀流量和热点流量模型下将该架构与传统架构进行仿真与性能比较,结果表明,与传统的3D_Mesh、XNoTs等架构相比,基于De Bruijn图的三维片上网络架构方式具有较小的网络平均延时与良好的可扩展性。     

循环经济视野下湖北省经济发展现状与对策分析

近年来,湖北省通过加强政府与企业合作,引导科技研发加快产学研结合,并积极发展社区试点探索经验,循环经济建设取得了初步成果,但是在治污方面还存在一系列问题。有鉴于此,湖北省亟需转变经济增长方式,构建绿色GDP核算体系,建立技术创新体系,加强环保宣传,建立市场机制导向下的循环经济发展模式。     

基于应力吸收层的旧水泥混凝土加铺层结构耦合应力分析

通过三维有限元数值模拟方法,分析了沥青加铺层厚度、模量,基础模量与应力吸收层厚度、模量对破碎后的旧水泥混凝土路面加铺层结构的荷载-温度耦合应力的变化规律.计算结果表明:适当增加加铺层的厚度对防止反射裂缝的产生是十分有效的;但不能用提高加铺层模量的方法来防止反射裂缝;适当控制基础模量可以防止反射裂缝的产生;适当提高应力吸收层的厚度对预防反射裂缝效果明显;提高应力吸收层的模量对预防反射裂缝效果不明显.     

胸腺嘧啶二醇脱氧核苷单分子糖苷键断裂的理论研究

采用理论计算方法对cis-(5S,6R)胸腺嘧啶二醇脱氧核苷(dTg)单分子糖苷键断裂的热力学和动力学性质进行了研究.在气相中,所有稳定点的几何构型都采用B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p)方法进行全优化,并利用导电极化连续模型对气相优化构型进行单点计算确定水的溶剂效应,作者主要考虑了直接断裂和抽氢断裂两条路径.计算结果表明:两条反应机理均涉及较高的活化能,从而说明单分子分解并不能促进糖苷键的断裂,该研究为生物体内这一重要反应提供了更多有用的信息.     

研究生英语精读教学探讨——以谭恩美《母语》的教学为例

精读课是研究生英语教学中一门重要的课程.以谭恩美的作品<母语>为教学实例,介绍如何依托课文,结合"3+3"的英语课堂教学模式,即"视、听、读"三种语言输入渠道,和"说、写、演"三种语言输出渠道相结合,开展多方位教学活动,培养非英语专业研究生的英语综合运用能力.     

对B_2H_6、B_3H_5和B_4H_6分子结构的对比研究

为了正确理解氢桥键的本质,采用MP2/6-31＋＋（D,P）方法对B2H6,B3H5和B4H6分子的结构进行了研究。比较了这3种分子中处于分子平面上下方的两个氢原子的距离变化引起的各原子带电情况的变化图和分子轨道图,结果显示,在某种程度上,B3H5和B4H6中分子平面上下方的两个氢原子具有类似B2H6分子中两个桥氢原子的性质,并在此基础上通过B2H6,B3H5和B4H6的分子轨道图得出了这3种分子中的氢桥键结构均可以看成π键电子云吸附两个带正电的质子构成的结论。