地方主导企业特质冲击的颗粒经济效应与区域经济影响

上市公司作为经济发展水平重要标识的微观因素,对宏观经济波动产生的影响需要关注。本文基于Gabaix(2011)的颗粒假说探讨我国各省(自治区、直辖市)较大的上市公司(地方主导企业)的特质冲击对宏观经济波动的解释力量,分析颗粒经济效应产生的原因及其对区域经济的影响。结果表明:31个省份中有14个省份当地主导企业的特质冲击显著影响当地宏观经济波动,具有颗粒经济效应;将省级经济体扩大至各省份临界经济体、各省份所属经济区域,发现其中一些省份的主导企业对区域经济体的经济波动仍具有一定的解释力量;不同企业群体对各省份宏观经济波动的解释力量有所差异,从而为各省份宏观经济波动识别了一系列更为重要的微观起源。经济发展中应该对微观企业生产波动给予重要关注,尤其是地方主导企业,从而引导区域经济协调发展,推动我国宏观经济平稳运行。     

新疆兵团农业结构调整与农业经济增长关系研究——基于协整理论与VAR模型分析

该文基于协整理论和VAR模型,构建了1980-2006年兵团农业结构调整和农业经济增长相互作用的动态模型,并在此基础上使用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数以及预测方差分解对两者之间的互动关系进行了探讨。研究结果表明:兵团农业结构调整是农业经济增长的Granger原因,但反向因果关系不成立。农业经济增长与农业结构调整之间存在密切的长期关系,且农业结构调整对农业经济增长的影响较大但时滞较长。因此,为促进农业经济增长,兵团应当相应制定长期政策加速农业结构调整。     

Tunisia after the 2011’s revolution: Economic deterioration should,and could have been avoided

The political instability and social unrest in Tunisia since 2011, generated a short-term foresight of the macroeconomic management which contributed to the deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The objective of this paper is to provide the policy makers with quantitative arguments showing the importance to undertake the macroeconomic stabilization and the structural reforms that improve the total factor productivity, one of the main engines of a sustained economic growth. To that end, the paper employs a financial dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using six flow-of-funds accounts representing the Tunisian economy in 2010. In a first stage, I reproduce the main macroeconomic variables observed for the Tunisian economy over 2011–2018. In a second stage, the model is used to compare the impacts of counterfactual policy scenarios on the Tunisian macroeconomic performance. The results show that the economy could perform much better, in relation to a battery of macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, unemployment, public external and domestic debts, current account, fiscal balance) under alternative economic policies. The most insightful results are obtained under the scenario of a total factor productivity’s growth progressing at its average level of 2001–2010. Indeed, this could generate an average yearly gain in terms of GDP growth of 3.45 percentage points and a reduction of the average unemployment rate by 7 percentage points over the same time horizon.     

‘The dying of the light’: the impact of the spending cuts,and cuts to employment law protections,on disability adjustments in British local authorities

Adjustments to working arrangements and the working environment have enabled organisations to recruit and retain valuable staff and helped disabled individuals to work and progress in their careers. The qualitative study reported in this paper indicates that generally good adjustments-related practice across 33 British local authorities was beginning to deteriorate under the impact of government spending cuts; and was at further risk from the dismantling of legal protections. The findings have implications for local authorities, but also for national policy-makers and those wishing to influence them.     

Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8

New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity at which they will join has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, surrounding the determination of the optimal exchange rate. Given the probable difficulty in evaluating the equilibrium rate it is thus advisable to focus on the effects of a misalignment of the entry rate for the economy, as it has implications for countries’ real and nominal convergence. An overvalued exchange rate would have an adverse impact on a country's competitiveness and its growth, while an undervalued currency would contribute to an overheating of the economy and an excessive inflation. The objective of this paper is to better understand the role of the entry rates for short run inflation and GDP developments and their implications for the inflation criterion and the real convergence process. Having estimated equilibrium exchange rates for eight out of ten countries that entered the EU in May 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia we conduct simulations showing what their adjustments to equilibrium would be if their entry rates deviated from the optimal ones.     

Non-parametric bootstrap recycling

The double bootstrap provides diagnostics for bootstrap calculations and, if need be, appropriate adjustments. The amount of computation involved is usually considerable, and recycling provides a less computer intensive alternative. Recycling consists of using repeatedly the same samples drawn from a recycling distribution G for estimation under each first-level bootstrap distribution, rather than independently repeating the simulation and estimation steps for each of these.Recycling is successful in parametric applications of the bootstrap, as demonstrated by M.A. Newton and C.J. Geyer (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 89: 905–912, 1994). We show that it is bound to fail in non-parametric bootstrap applications, and suggest a modification that makes the method work. The modification consists of smoothing the first-level bootstrap distributions, with the desired consequence that this removes the zero probabilities in the multinomial distributions that define them. We also discuss efficient choices of recycling distributions, both in terms of estimator efficiency and simulation efficiency.     

投资与产业结构调整

本文根据90年代我国产业结构调整的任务,使用适当的投资,通过宏观经济模型的计算,逐步实现调整产业结构,且使国民收人生产额和使用额保持基本平衡,为国民经济持续、稳定和协调发展提供依据.     

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

The forecast and policy simulations based on macroeconomic models are used in many instances as an important input into policy decision-making. In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. The approach differs from the standard practice of deriving fiscal closure rules in large macroeconomic forecasting models in both its derivation and implementation. An example of the endogenously derived rule, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model     

Forecasting Economic Time Series With Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study

The basic structural model is a univariate time series model consisting of a slowly changing trend component, a slowly changing seasonal component, and a random irregular component. It is part of a class of models that have a number of advantages over the seasonal ARIMA models adopted by Box and Jenkins (1976). This article reports the results of an exercise in which the basic structural model was estimated for six U.K. macroeconomic time series and the forecasting performance compared with that of ARIMA models previously fitted by Prothero and Wallis (1976).     

Hazards Education for Youth: A Quasi-Experimental Investigation

No experimental research has examined the hypothesized benefits of hazards education programs for youth in helping to increase community resilience. This preliminary study followed on from correlational studies and examined the role these programs play in helping increase child and family problem- and emotion-focused coping. Children (n= 219) were randomly assigned, based on classroom, to a condition. The "usual condition" consisted of a reading and discussion program. The "emergency management" condition consisted of the usual condition combined with emergency-management-focused teaching and increased interaction between youth and home. Factors assessed included both problem- and emotion-focused factors: knowledge of mitigation and emergency response activities, family and home hazard adjustments, hazard-related fears, emotion-focused coping ability, and perceptions of parents' hazard-related fears. Overall, the results supported the role for hazards education programs in increasing resilience in youth and at home. In particular, large intervention produced effect sizes were seen for both child- and parent-reported hazard adjustments. Significant interactions provided additional support for the role of an emergency management focus in the problem-focused areas of (1) both child- and parent-reported hazard adjustments and (2) increased hazards-based knowledge in the youth. These initial findings provide a continuing foundation for further research in this emerging area. Discussion considers the role for such programs in the future.