浅析社会困境

社会困境是指那些使得个体理性导致集体非理性的环境。文章介绍了社会困境在两人和多人环境下的具体含义,详细说明了解决社会困境的可能途径,即动机性、策略性和结构性解决方法。     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

疾驰的哀鸣:论张枣诗歌中的声音与抒情表达

诗人张枣一生仅仅创作了百余首诗歌,但在这些为数不多的作品中,关于传统,他始终有着一种相对明晰的态度。本文选择以声音的视角切入,将通过句式、停顿、词的选择等包孕在情感与意象中的内在化节奏展开,从而在声音传统中去洞悉张枣的诗歌所彰显出的哀鸣与急促等情感特征。     

从俞平伯晚年自省和“李希凡自述”想到的(之三)——回应俞平伯晚年的红学研究反思

俞平伯先生晚年的红学自省是真实可信的,应引起红学界高度重视,他的红学研究思想的重大变化同1954年那场对他的批评有内在的因果关系。对当年那场"批俞评红"不能全盘否定,不能只讲负面问题,全面否定其正确性和必要性。现在红学研究的一些乱象正是当年批判过了的错误研究思想、研究方法的泛滥。这种泛滥同对当年的全盘否定不无关系。     

论新中国成立后街道校外教育的社会作用——以北京地区为中心（1949-1965）

新中国成立后,街道办事处与居委会等组织为弥补学校教育的不足,积极开展少年儿童校外教育,有效的实现了学校教育、社会教育、家庭教育的互动与结合.街居制下校外教育的发展,有效的净化了社会环境,为少年儿童的成长创建了良好的社会氛围,发挥了积极作用.     

Raising rural women’s voices: From self-silencing to self-expression

Within the context of a community-academic partnership, we undertook a mixed-methods study to identify and explore health status, priorities, and management strategies among aging Wisconsin rural women. A questionnaire measuring diverse wellness needs was administered to women participating in personal development programming offered by a rural nonprofit organization. A subgroup participated in qualitative interviews to deepen the understanding of identified health priorities and methods of coping and healing. Findings provide insight into the prevalence of self-silencing among rural women and highlight mechanisms that help to facilitate the dismantling of self-silencing.     

周紫芝新乐府观述论

周紫芝是宋代唯一既大量创作乐府诗，又编辑整理前人的乐府诗，且对本朝乐府诗进行批评的著名诗人。周紫芝对乐府诗的批评以新乐府为主，并首次将关注的目光投向了宋代新乐府。周紫芝的乐府观主要表现为：在古今乐府并存的情况下，充分重视与肯定新乐府；首次对宋朝新乐府予以关注并高度评价；注重唐人新乐府与宋朝新乐府之间的影响关系。     

Fitting competing risks data to bivariate Pareto models

This paper revisits two bivariate Pareto models for fitting competing risks data. The first model is the Frank copula model, and the second one is a bivariate Pareto model introduced by Sankaran and Nair (1993 Sankaran, P. G., and N. U. Nair. 1993. A bivariate Pareto model and its applications to reliability. Naval Research Logistics 40 (7):1013–1020. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199312)40:7%3c1013::AID-NAV3220400711%3e3.0.CO;2-7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We discuss the identifiability issues of these models and develop the maximum likelihood estimation procedures including their computational algorithms and model-diagnostic procedures. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. Real data are analyzed for illustration.     

Children and global social policy: Exploring the impact of international governmental organisations

Axford N. Children and global social policy: exploring the impact of international governmental organisations International governmental organisations (IGOs) seek to influence child welfare policy and practice in individual sovereign states. But do they succeed and, if so, in what way? This article outlines the nature of selected IGOs' work, explores the nature of their impact and seeks to explain the pattern that emerges. It also notes areas for further research.