The social benefits of water and sanitation projects in Northern Colombia: Cost‐Benefit Analysis,the Water Poverty Index and beyond

Water, and Sanitation projects play an important role in alleviating water‐related poverty in developing countries. There are several methodologies that will not only assess the performance of these projects but will also help to better identify the problem and its characteristics, and to improve the efficiency of the investment. The Water Poverty Index is one of them. It is a very useful tool that helps to measure water stress at the household level in a holistic way, and to identify priorities. It is important, however, to complement it with a Cost‐Benefit Analysis that will take into account the costs of the project. A case study in Northern Colombia illustrates this point.     

美元的霸权性及其对全球利益博弈的影响

国际利益博弈源于国家之间需求的碰撞,自1970年代起,全球发展进入后工业社会阶段,美元作为世界货币,其表面的"美金→石油美元"转换后面,是美元信用来源的"实际财富抵押→暴力抵押"的转换;该转换带来了一个全新的世界格局,即"美元/全球资源资产"与"美元/美国国债"的双跷跷板结构。美元成为世界利益博弈的核心。2012年,美元进入第三个"17年大周期升浪"和临近"5年升值小周期",世界由此进入"美元升/全球资源资产贬"的格局之中。     

New cultural economies of marginality: revisiting the West Coast,South Island,New Zealand

Marginal regions have been the subject of political concern and remedial action in western states for several decades now. The West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand is an interesting case study in this regard, for recent economic growth has confounded earlier expectations of post-restructuring decline, while also contradicting several of the nostrums of new regionalism. In an effort to understand this trajectory, this paper draws on documents from public and private sector organisations, newspaper articles and field visits to examine developments in four key sectors of the West Coast's economy: mining, dairy farming, forestry and tourism. Economic growth is found to be closely linked to the cultivation of new markets for primary products, but efforts to rework the cultural dimensions of marginality have also been important. Value has been added to specific products through the insertion of references to the region's alpine and forested landscapes. Isolation and peripherality have been recast in more positive terms, echoing the broader reframing of New Zealand as a scenic, unspoiled destination. In adopting a cultural economic perspective on marginal regions, the paper illustrates the significance of symbolic forms of value, the potentially flexible nature of marginality as a discursive category, and the importance of the networks which connect regions to national and international flows of capital and tourists.     

加强资产管理优化资源配置提高办学效益的思考

资产管理工作是高校管理工作的新领域。高等教育快速发展的新形势以及创建国内外知名高水平大学宏伟目标的确立为高校管理工作特别是资产管理工作提出了许多新要求。优化资源配置,提高办学效益,成为提高办学水平和办学质量的关键环节、前提条件。应该提高对优化资源配置重要意义的认识,明确高等学校资产管理目标,完善相关规章制度,健全资产管理工作体制和运行机制,注重产权管理,进一步明晰产权关系,深化资产管理改革,挖掘学校资源潜力,加快校产资源优化重组步伐。     

新时期中国共产党的社会整合方略——以利益为基础的制度整合

中国共产党的执政地位是通过对社会进行有效整合来实现的。在转型时期,随着社会自主性的萌发,产生了以个体或群体利益为主要内容的利益诉求。利益的多元化、单位制的式微、西方政党制度的影响、明显的贫富差距、对渐进式改革的疑问以及政府俘获的出现使中国共产党在新时期的社会整合中面临巨大挑战。执政的中国共产党应根据社会的变化,在意识形态、政党网络、政党制度、执政能力、政治体制与反腐倡廉等方面增强制度供给,实现以利益为基础的制度整合。     

Comparison of causal effect estimators under exposure misclassification

Over the past decades, various principles for causal effect estimation have been proposed, all differing in terms of how they adjust for measured confounders: either via traditional regression adjustment, by adjusting for the expected exposure given those confounders (e.g., the propensity score), or by inversely weighting each subject's data by the likelihood of the observed exposure, given those confounders. When the exposure is measured with error, this raises the question whether these different estimation strategies might be differently affected and whether one of them is to be preferred for that reason. In this article, we investigate this by comparing inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) estimators and doubly robust estimators for the exposure effect in linear marginal structural mean models (MSM) with G-estimators, propensity score (PS) adjusted estimators and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators for the exposure effect in linear regression models. We find analytically that these estimators are equally affected when exposure misclassification is independent of the confounders, but not otherwise. Simulation studies reveal similar results for time-varying exposures and when the model of interest includes a logistic link.     

Reflections on Changes in the Library and Serials Literature

Abstract

Johnson describes changes in library journal literature topics over the past one hundred years, with a focus on the period between her first Balance Point column in 2003 and this one, her last. She reminisces on her experience as a Balance Point column editor.     

A Bayesian Benefit-Risk Model Applied to the South Florida Building Code

A Bayesian compound Poisson benefit-risk model is described in this paper, and used to evaluate recent revisions to the South Florida Building Code (SFBC). The model accounts for natural variability in hurricane frequency and severity, and uncertainty in the effectiveness of the revised code. Ranges of residential growth rate, code effectiveness, construction cost increase, and planning period length are assumed, to show the ranges of cost-to-performance ratio within which the code will make sense economically. The expected cost of residential hurricane damage over 50 years for ten South Florida counties assuming continuation of previous building practices was $93 billion, equivalent to the residential damage of 5.2 Andrews. Assuming a reduction in the growth of damageable housing in South Florida from 5.5% to 2% as a result of code revision, estimated damages under the new code were $45 billion. At a per-house construction cost increase of 5%, the probability of at least recovering the estimated $40 billion cost of the specified wind-resistant construction was estimated to be 47%. Expected return on investment was estimated at $7 billion over 50 years. The expected return lies between a $44 billion loss and a $47 billion gain, when growth in damageable housing is allowed to range from 1% to 4% and construction cost increases are assumed to lie between 3% and 8%. Actual monetary return for a 5% cost increase and 2% growth in damageable housing ranges from a $20 billion loss to a $100 billion gain with 95% probability, as a result of weather variability alone. Results support SFBC revisions on solely economic grounds, a conclusion strengthened considerably in light of potentially avoided deaths and hurricane traumas. The model represents one approach to evaluating economic aspects of the sustainability of new technological measures on the basis of available information.     

Hypothesis Testing of Hazard Ratio Parameters in Marginal Models for Multivariate Failure Time Data

Marginal hazard models for multivariate failure time data have been studied extensively in recent literature. However, standard hypothesis test statistics based on the likelihood method are not exactly appropriate for this kind of model. In this paper, extensions of the three commonly used likelihood hypothesis test statistics are discussed. Generalized Wald, generalized score and generalized likelihood ratio tests for hazard ratio parameters in a marginal hazard model for multivariate failure time data are proposed and their asymptotic distributions examined. The finite sample properties of these statistics are studied through simulations. The proposed method is applied to data from Busselton Population Health Surveys.     

高等教育的公平问题探析

在初等和中等教育趋向公平后,人们开始关注高等教育的公平,但我国的现实和高等教育的独特性使得高等教育的公平和大众化并不那么容易,而且极易陷入两难境地。我们要做的是走自己的路。在注重效益的基础上,逐步地让更多有才能的人获得高等教育的入学机会,而不是为了公平而普及高等教育。本文通过对高等教育公平问题的阐述和评析,试图说明高等教育的公平问题并不是指高等教育的大众化,其真正的公平在于“机会均等”。